The English Premier League enters a pivotal phase this weekend, with several matches that could decide the fate of the title, the European place(s) and relegation spots in the next 4 days (if you include Tuesday’s match between Manchester City and Tottenham).
Last weekend we looked at the Castrol EPL Predictor and used it to predict results for all 10 Premier Leagues from last weekend. Let’s look at how the Castrol EPL Predictor fared:
Last Weekend’s Results
Actual match results followed by Castrol EPL Predictions in brackets)
Wigan 1-1 Everton (Everton win at 51%)
West Brom 2-1 Aston Villa (West Brom win at 43%)
Sunderland 0-3 Fulham (Sunderland win at 38%)
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (Chelsea win at 75%)
Blackpool 0-0 Stoke (Blackpool win at 44%)
Blackburn 1-0 Bolton (Blackburn win at 51%)
Manchester City 2-1 West Ham (Man City win at 61%)
Liverpool 3-0 Newcastle United (Liverpool win at 65%)
Birmingham 1-1 Wolves (Birmingham win at 51%)
Arsenal 1-0 Manchester United (Arsenal win at 40%)
There’s two ways to look at this: one is look at absolute result predictions – i.e. how many results did the Castrol Predictor get right – 6 out of 10. The other way to look at is to consider that these predictions are actually percentages assigned to each outcome (win, draw, loss), and then look at how the actual results stacked up against the Castrol EPL Predictor’s percentages.
For example: Arsenal v Manchester United only had a 34% chance of United winning, or 66% chance of United not winning.
Applying this to the incorrect results from the first method, we see:
Wigan 1-1 Everton (Wigan to not lose at 49%)
Sunderland 0-3 Fulham (Sunderland to not lose at 66%)
Blackpool 0-0 Stoke (Blackpool to not lose at 69%)
Birmingham 1-1 Wolves (Birmingham to not lose at 78%)
In two results (Blackpool and Birmingham, the prediction was highly accurate. In one result (Wigan v Everton), the prediction was accurate but it was an evenly balanced spread with all three results equally likely. In the fourth result, Sunderland v Fulham, the prediction was way off the actual result, and this is reflected in the fact that Fulham’s away win to Sunderland came as the biggest shock of the weekend results.
So, if you look at these predictions strictly in terms of win percentages, the Castrol EPL Predictor got 6 out of 10 predictions correct.
If you look at these predictions in terms of overall percentages and the likelihood of home teams not losing, the Castrol EPL Predictor got 8 out of 10 predictions correct, with one call one the line and the last one a surprise result.
Castrol Weekend Predictions
This weekend’s matches as predicted by Castrol EPL Predictor:
Premier League Final Standings Predictions
Here’s a look at the end-of-season Premier League table as predicted by Castrol:
We’ll be following up with match previews for the big games this weekend – United v Chelsea, Everton v City, plus the relegation battle and the race for 5th place between Tottenham and Liverpool.
Make sure you look at the Castrol EPL Match Predictor in more detail as it’s an excellent statistical tool for predicting matchups between two Premier League teams as well as our previous Castrol EPL Predictor article for an explanation of how the Castrol EPL Predictions work.
Premier League Betting
And if you’re a betting man, I recommend using our free £25 bet to back Castrol’s predicted results on Betfair. 6 out of 10 (or 8 out of 10 if you bet on a team not losing) is a good set of results to put ‘free’ money on (and you’ll be in with a shot at winning an extra £100).