Title Race: history points to Chelsea, future to Manchester United
On December 10th 2006, three teams played football at Stamford Bridge. It was a magnificent match.
Result: Manchester United won, Arsenal managed a tie and Chelsea lost.
If you’re a Chelsea fan, do not already plan my crucifixion, for I am just as blue as you are.
Enough has already been written about the match. Whether it was Chelsea’s bad luck or Manchester United’s good luck is a matter of which side you’re on. But yesterday’s match was one of those where things just don’t happen for one team.
Earlier this season I thought hitting on the woodwork was a Gunner specialty, probably one of Wenger’s accuracy lessons. But turns out, even Mourinho has started these lessons. Besides the role of luck in yesterday’s match, I do not want to get into the debate of penalty or no-penalty, foul or no-foul, Hilario or Cech. No use.
The bottom line is Wenger and the Gunners should celebrate after drawing a match full of defensive bloopers. It is not usual for teams to grab a point at Stamford Bridge, three seemingly impossible. Henry was out, and so was Gallas. Every prediction was against Arsenal. Chelsea lost 2 points that should have been bagged with ease. But now the only right thing to do is to look forward and brush aside yesterday’s match.
Assuming Chelsea will beat Newcastle, the gap between #1 and #2 will be 5 points. To clear the picture, let’s say Arsenal is only contending for the third spot. Based on this situation, I’d like to throw a few thoughts and numbers for readers to comment on.
The Curse of Accommodating Shevchenko and Ballack
Players are brought in to support the team, not the other way round. Chelsea is consistently exhibiting two different qualities of play within 90 minutes. The first half seems to be an experiment, an attempt to make the most out of big investments. The second half seems to be the lethal Chelsea rescue operation. When gamblers lose money, they play another game for the motive of winning back the money already lost.
Is Sheva starting every game in an attempt to “recover� the big money put into his transfer? How long can Chelsea wait to see him regain his lost confidence? Robben electrifies the game on the left while Essien does the same on the right, why doesn’t Chelsea play the whole 90 minutes like that? Why do you wait until you’re against the wall? Wait a minute, am I forgetting the mighty Joe Cole? Where are the wingers when the one strength your star striker has is aerial?
Manchester United and the Statistical Challenge
Manchester United is on a high. They are looking extremely good. But a flashback of numbers presents a thought-provoking picture. In the FA Premier League ManU has played 561 matches, won 353 (63%) and drawn 128 (23%). Using this rate of performance, ManUs expected number of wins in a season should be 24 with 9 ties – that leaves the club with an impressive 81 points. The highest ManU has ever scored in EPL is 92 way back in 1993-94 season (in 42 matches, not 38) and then 91 after a 6-year gap in 1999-00. The untouchable Arsenal team scored 90 points when it last won the EPL in 2003-04. The resurgent Chelsea scored a record-breaking 95 and 91 back-to-back in the last two seasons.
Based on current table the extrapolated points for ManU are 98 by the end of the season, while Chelsea looks to be scoring 86. And this is where I raise the question; can ManU really become the statistical anomaly? The last 2 times ManU crossed the 90-points mark, it was Cantona, Giggs, Keane and Hughes playing for them in 1993-94, and in 1999-00 they enjoyed the magical partnership of Andy Cole (19 goals) and Dwight Yorke (20 goals) leaving Arsenal trailing by 18 points at the end of season. Based on ManUs current team and increased competitiveness of EPL, I doubt ManU will break its own record of 92 points and I strongly believe ManU will see a mini-slump.
And a slump doesn’t mean 3 defeats on a trot – for clubs like ManU, Arsenal and Chelsea, a slump is simply not winning one match after another. After all, didn’t Chelsea unexpectedly lose quite a few points end of last season – who thought they would lose points to the struggling Fulham? Don’t get me wrong here and start getting all touchy. There are no undertones. All I’m doing is presenting some facts, and questioning the wisdom of expecting ManU to perform like this till May!
The Title Race
The average EPL winning score is 85, lowest 75 and highest 95. The extrapolated score for Chelsea is 86, while ManU seems to be flying up to 98. For Chelsea I can say, they might lose even more points ending up 80ish or they could push it upward with their commitment to bring it closer to 90 - and I don’t think many of you would disagree on 80-90 range being achievable for Chelsea.
But, how many of you would really want to bet on ManU going past their 42-match highest of 92? Truth is, ManU is having a party right now! It is extremely commendable and must be applauded no matter which club you have pledged your loyalty to. But can this last? And I must admit that IF ManU really goes on to setting that record, I will have no complains watching Neville raise the silverware instead of Terry. I will be ready to concede defeat to a brilliant team. I will respect ManU for the very reason I love Chelsea - the undying spirit and consistency.
After last night, the premiership race has turned the heat on Chelsea. Chelsea has to stay strong now, and I have complete faith in Mourinho and his squad. I expect this season to end on a very close call, perhaps as close as 1997-98 and 1998-99 seasons. I couldn’t believe my eyes when the invincible Schumacher was defeated by Alonso in San Marino by one-fifth of a second. But I did love every bit of that race. Despite whoever wins the EPL this year, Chelsea and ManU will entertain everyone with their title race.
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Hmm how interesting, there is so much logic here. Trust me. I know. Hmmm. So This DOES make sense - A team who scores large points in the first half of a season must score less in the second half of the season to align with the law of averages. Even if a team improves, they will never better a previous achievement. The only point this article makes is that Man Utd are likely to be around 98 points at the end of teh season and Chelsea are likely to be 86. You can not take a positive out of this stupid future fore-telling calculation. Undeniable rubbish. I predict Man Utd to win the league and Jose Mourinho to be caught felching with Michael Barrymore and his mum.
Trust Azar to bring statistical analysis into football. If anyone can take a thing of love and passion and glory and honor and … religion…and turn it into a boring amalgamation of confusing numbers that don’t make sense anyway…it’s Azar.
A special trait, my friend.
And hanging by the thread of statistics is a very dangerous move - after all, the ‘Invincibles’ broke records. Chelsea broke records.
Who is to say United can’t?
This is just absolute rubbish - you might as well say that if Man Utd beat West Ham and Aston Villa (after which they have played 1/2 the season) law of averages is that we will finish on 100 points , while we are capable of beating both those teams (no disrespect to either intended) something like football just doesnt work this way.
With a couple more astute Jan signings (please let Fergie’s quote be wrong denying any additions) we will have cover incase of injury and we can get to the remarkable 100 along with decent FA Cup and CL runs
and i thought arsenal fans were delusional
Azar, u’ve a problem! Ignore Arsenal, yes do! It works for them. That game @ the bridge showed the gunners will cause an upset at some point. Henry is having a rest of his life, he can only be more lethal once he’s bk! ManU ‘n the blues must travel 2 Emirates. I wouldn’t call time on their season. U’re better advised to keep focus on them 2.
haha, I like the article Azar. I do agree with a lot of what you’ve said, and I really do believe that we’ve had only a good season so far - ok, maybe very good. The thing that should be baking your noodle is - will Chelsea let us get by with a very good season and win the Premiership?
20, Black, Even Pass. The ball is round. The game lasts 90 minutes. The rest is all speculation
(Go watch Lola Rennt)
Arsenal struggle against sides who they are expected to beat. Teams that are prepared to get men behind the ball and will be satisfied with a point are going to cause arsenal trouble,particularly at the emirates.
with sissoko out of the frame for liverpool at the moment they seem to have a much more settled midffield and starting to find some good form. they may pose the only realistic threat to the front two.
chelsea are not as strong as they were last year with the departure of gallas and gudjohnsen(who offered them a lot more then shevchenko).cech is a big loss too.
as for United,they can play poorly by their standards and still win a derby 3-1. players are coming back from injury and if anything they should get stronger as the season progresses. its a long way to the end of the season but i hope we can maintain our form and go on to reclaim the title.
Nice article
Tempted me to put it up on Orkut
Donn worry i mentioned my source
(Good publicity for soccerlens)
http://www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=22782542
If United’s 2nd half of the season is anywhere close to the level we have done over the last 4 seasons we will be finishing with a very decent points tally. Fortunately the 2nd half of the season doesn’t look like it will be starting with the disadvantages of the first (injuries, suspensions and post-World cup fatigue). From January we should have strengthened attack with Ole, Smith, Larsson, Rossi and Dong. Midfield will undoubtedly be strengthened (none of this years transfer budget has been spent yet), and with a fully settled defense. You talk of Uniteds form as if it was a temporary blip but if you compiled a table showing Premier points gained from this time last year to now United would be way ahead of Chelsea and the others - that’s a full year of good form … hardly a blip.
You didn’t take into account at all the fact that United have in history (averaged) always played a better spring than fall. Ferguson’s team has year after year been extremely good around March and April..
Why is that? Just wanna use the stats that prove the point? Logic doesn’t imply to that? Or you just wish that if you write it, United would really suffer the mini-slump and Chel$ki would go past them?
To all the readers, I quote from the article:
“Don’t get me wrong here and start getting all touchy. There are no undertones. All I’m doing is presenting some facts…”
Uri/Hugo: If only your brains weren’t suffering from selective-reception syndrome, you would’ve ended up saying something better.
Ahmed: Numbers speak man. Numbers speak. Coz each team makes its own numbers. But I will agree with you saying “Who is to say United can’t?” - because if you can make the numbers, you can break ‘em too. Fair enough. But Ahmed, I’m quite surprised how people, including you, have largely missed the point. While I have genuinely expressed admiration for ManU, my sole point of throwing past numbers was assessing the “LIKELIHOOD” for that kind of consistency. Chelsea grabbed 46 of their first 48 points last season. There was ABSOLUTELY NOTHING wrong, no major injuries, no bust-ups in the camp and yet we ended up 91.
Julio: No doubt, Arsenal will cast a massive indirect impact on the title race. But they’re well out of contention, even Wenger has admitted that.
Jeff/MKL: No, no I never called it a blip! Secondly from the picture you’re drawing, the second half seemingly SO much more advantageous than the first, you’re probably anticipating a 100 pointer? Hmmm… okay fine, your club, your optimism…. you wanna put money on it? 1000 pounds, I give you 3:1 odds in your favor. Say?
I still maintain - if ManU takes the EPL, it’ll be because Chelsea will fail to perform like previous 2 years, not because ManU will set any 100 pointer records or anything!!
Azar - sure, numbers speak. And yes, I know that the ‘likelihood’ of United continuing their run is not high.
But two points to counter what you just said - 1) the teams that ‘did’ accumulate 90+ points did so under very specific conditions - they were lucky, they had few injuries and the players complemented each other perfectly.
If those conditions are present, then a top team can be expected to put on a 90-points show. United need to avoid injuries, they’ve already shown that the players play well together and that they are a bit lucky this season.
2) When Mourinho came to Chelsea, it took people more than a year to figure out how to counter him (same with Arsenal’s Invincibles) and his tactics. I’d point to an improved quality in the Premiership, Chelsea’s lack of interest in the last couple of games of the season (when they’d already won the title) and teams knowing how to counter Chelsea as keys to that 91 point haul. Get all your inputs before drawing conclusions
I still maintain - if ManU takes the EPL, it’ll be because Chelsea will fail to perform like previous 2 years, not because ManU will set any 100 pointer records or anything!!
Fan bias, inaccurate as well. Chelsea could put up 92 points, United could put up 94 and win. That would be ‘perfoming like previous 2 years’ for Chelsea, and United won’t need to break the 100-points barrier, right?
Come on, don’t lose your head because you’re talking to dumbass fans
I really doubt Arsenal will be anywhere in the top 4 this season. The Emirates stadium is nothing…yet! They have no home advantage anymore. They’re probably more at home at Old Trafford-Stamford Bridge-Anfield. They will undoubtedly have a cracking team in a couple of seasons time, but for this season, and I honestly think next season too, Arsenal will not achieve anything…especially as Henry will be leaving in January!
“When Mourinho came to Chelsea, it took people more than a year to figure out how to counter him (same with Arsenal’s Invincibles)”
Off the point but a much called-for correction: One, when Wenger came to Highbury they did not turn into no INVINCIBLES!! It took Wenger his second season to win the league by a SINGLE point!! And when they did become invincible, the EPL had been watching Arsenal play for a long time under Wenger. Your Arsenal analogy to Chelsea is pathetic at best.
For the record, I never ZEROED the possibility of ManU getting 90 (for 100 YES and I’m ready to put on it!!). I even showed, they’re heading for late 90’s. But I expressed my doubts over the consistency required for it, and yet again I’ll do so quoting one of the reasons you sighted for Chelsea’s late slump:
“I’d point to an improved quality in the Premiership”
And in that improved quality of league you expect, no matter how remotely, 2 premiership teams to amass 90+ points in a season!!! Lordddd….you ManU guys have started talking things of slimmest probabilities! THIS is what you should call “FAN BIAS”!
Off the point but a much called-for correction: One, when Wenger came to Highbury they did not turn into no INVINCIBLES!! It took Wenger his second season to win the league by a SINGLE point!! And when they did become invincible, the EPL had been watching Arsenal play for a long time under Wenger. Your Arsenal analogy to Chelsea is pathetic at best.
Let me rephrase it so that maybe you’ll understand it better:
It took other teams time to cope with Arsenal’s system - why? because they took their game to such a high level and they played with such perfection that you had to do something special to counter that. Arsenal were stopped by two things - that core of players getting older and leaving, and with the rest of the Premiership learning how to choke off Arsenal’s game, the one they had finally perfected by 2004.
Same with Chelsea.
If you are willing to allow for all relevant factors to be taken into account, then you’ll realise that it’s never just one thing that makes or breaks a season. A lot of things come into account, and the Premiership adapting to the champions’ style of play is one of them.
For the record, I never ZEROED the possibility of ManU getting 90 (for 100 YES and I’m ready to put on it!!). I even showed, they’re heading for late 90’s. But I expressed my doubts over the consistency required for it
I didn’t say you did mate.
and yet again I’ll do so quoting one of the reasons you sighted for Chelsea’s late slump:
“I’d point to an improved quality in the Premiership�
And in that improved quality of league you expect, no matter how remotely, 2 premiership teams to amass 90+ points in a season!!! Lordddd….you ManU guys have started talking things of slimmest probabilities! THIS is what you should call “FAN BIAS�!
No, I was merely stating a possibility to counter this statement by you:
still maintain - if ManU takes the EPL, it’ll be because Chelsea will fail to perform like previous 2 years, not because ManU will set any 100 pointer records or anything!!
Anything else?
Do you agree that the Premiership has improved because other teams had to play better and invest more money in order to catch up with the Arsenal of 2003/2004 and Chelsea of 2004/2006?
Do you agree that it is only a matter of time before a weakness in a system is found and exploited?
Do you agree that it is fan bias to believe that your club will only come 2nd if they under-perform, and not because the other team plays better than them throughout the season?
My 2cents worth…
I don’t believe that we (MU fans) should become disillusional in thinking that “we have already won the league”. A lot can happen between now and May. On the other hand, we should appreciate and savour the position we’re in. It took a lot of hard work to get there. However, SAF’s approach to this whole thing is to take it one step at a time.
1. Get a good start…
We tried it last season and it failed. This season it worked.
2. Get consistency…
We’re currently winning games that we’re expected to, unlike last season
3. Try to get top and see how well Chelsea can chase…
We did it, and now its up to Chelsea to catch us. Somewhat un-familiar to them (actually, to be precise, to Mourinho)
So far, so good. Wheter we can go all the way? Who knows? Who cares? at least SAF’s accomplished what he set out as his goals so far.
We can never discard Chelsea. Firstly, they are still the team everyone fear at the moment (even though MU is on top). Secondly, they deserve respect for being the Champions. The have proved that they did not become Champions by luck. They worked bloody hard for it. Our guys are also working hard, but unfortunately, with the standards CHELSEA have set, they have to work smart as well.
I said beginning of the season that I think we can do it this year. I still feel that way, but it is definately NOT going to be easy.
“Do you agree that the Premiership has improved because other teams……”
Q1) Yes. Absolutely.
Q2) Yes. But what if a team can change systems after a half and look completely different? Could Barcelona, ManU and Arsenal all manage to “choke off” Chelsea’s game when they were down? As for “players getting old and leaving” :p… that’s no issue for Chelsea for the next 1-2 seasons. But yea Giggs, Scholes, Ole and Neville are in their twilight…. and ManU *might* not be able to find a footballer as PHENOMENAL as Ryan Giggs soon enough.
Q3) It would be fan bias if I was speaking for ANY other club. But I’m speaking for back-to-back EPL champions, amassing 90+ points each time, and a club that boasts one of the best squads. Realistically, IF Chelsea plays up to its own level and score 90+, I see a majority chance for them to retain the title. Expecting 92/94 sort of a scenario to occur is just as fanciful as expecting EPL to be decided over goal difference. Having said that, I have NO doubt that if Chelsea slip, ManU have enough cushion and quality to fly by. Point being, its not my bias, but the last 2 years of record that convinces me Chelsea at its best can not be defeated, and I say this WHILE acknowledging ManU as an amazing team and paying them loads of respect!
Good article Azar. sse you in June…..
statistics
are
worthless
when
predicting