Why are Real Madrid, Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter, Celtic, Bayern and PSV so desperate NOT to win their leagues?
I write a lot about the English Championship and in that league the top four, Stoke City, Bristol City, Watford and West Brom, are all doing their level best not to get automatic promotion. Only Stoke have won in their last two games, and that is one in five for them. The rest of the teams can’t buy a win. Despite that, the chasing pack are making no inroads because they can’t win either.
I thought this was because it was a tough league and there were no outstanding teams in it. However, a glance around the top leagues in Europe will show that teams at the top everywhere are trying not to win their leagues.
What is going on? Worldwide corruption? Teams unable to handle the pressure?
In the English Premier League Arsenal were taking control just a few weeks ago. Four draws in a row, a loss of eight points, have seen them slip back alarmingly. They currently sit seventh in the form table with just ten points from their last six games.
In La Liga in Spain both Barcelona and Real Madrid appear desperate not to win the the title. Madrid keep losing and handing the impetus to Barcelona who return the favour. Madrid and Barcelona sit tenth and sixth in their form table with nine and ten points respectively from their last six games.
It isn’t so clear cut in the Italian Serie A, but even Inter, unbeaten for so long, are only sixth in their form table. Eleven points from six games is not title winning form, and they have,of course, also lost their first game of the whole season.
Ligue 1 in France sees Lyon at the top and going well. Their closest challengers Bordeaux have let them off the hook by taking only ten points from their last six games. They are fifth in the form table.
Bayern Munich are trying to allow others to overtake them in the Bundesliga having taken just eleven points from six games, the same return as PSV in the Dutch Eredivisie. They are fifth and sixth respectively in their form tables.
Porto buck the trend somewhat in Portugal by being top of the table by a mile and top of the form table, but even in Scotland where the Old Firm can only drop points to each other, Celtic managed to draw a game at home to Dundee United to ensure they don’t hit top spot.
It all looks a bit fishy to me. I’m beginning to wish I hadn’t used the phrase ‘buy a win’ at the start of this article!
My own team, Watford, were eight points clear at the top of the Championship at one point earlier in the season. To ensure that we didn’t stay there we went on a run of winning only two games in ten. We managed eight home games in a row without winning. Then, presumaby by mistake, we started to win again. Top spot loomed. As a result we haven’t won in six games again now. Two of those were 0-0 draws against other top four teams in which we missed penalties. You’re going to try to convince me there is no conspiracy!?
So what is the real reason that the teams who have established themselves as the best in their leagues over a sixth month period are now struggling to pick up points? Have they become bad sides? Obviously not. Have they lost players to injury? There are some, Eduardo for example, but on the whole, most of the top teams have players returning to fitness rather than the other way round. Are the teams tired from all the competitions they are in? An old lame excuse. Has someone placed a very big bet somewhere on the winners of the leagues? Hush my mouth.
This coming weekend sees what has been called ‘Grand Slam Sunday’ in the English Premier League when Manchester United host Liverpool and Arsenal travel the short distance to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea. Do we expect exciting football, lots of goals and all four teams looking for the win? Unlikely. My prediction is that none of the four will win. If they do, it’ll be through a mistake by the opposition.
The reason for the dip in form by all the teams at the top must be related to the pressure on the teams to succeed. Why else would Arsenal fail to win at home to Middlesbrough with 85% of the possession? Why else would Real lose to Deportivo or Barcelona fail to win in Almeria. Why else would Inter lose at 12th placed Napoli or Bayern Munich lose at fourth from bottom FC Energie Cottbus? I can only think of one other possible reason and I don’t want to go there.
I don’t really think there is corruption or a conspiracy but if Manchester United fail to beat Bolton tomorrow night I might just have to reconsider!
Graham writes at Views of a fan
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Losing Eduardo and the way it happened seems to have knocked the stuffing out of Arsenal.
Apart from Walcott in that game against Birmingham and Almunia against Villa, no Arsenal player has played well in any league game since then.
The response from the Birmingham City people was more brutal than the tackle itself. It still continues. I imagine Arsenal would like an unreserved apology from the Midlands club. Instead all they get is more abuse and the likes of Gold, McLeish, McFadden and Larsson telling everyone that Taylor is an angel. This adding insult to injury turns my stomach so I’m sure it has a stronger effect on Arsenal players and staff.
People compare Eduardo’s injury to David Busst’s but the big difference is that Eduardo was clearly fouled. The ref sent Taylor off. The tackles resulting in Busst’s injury were not fouls. The ref didn’t show any cards.
If that’s the best Birmingham City can manage as a response they aren’t much of a football club. Hopefully Arsenal can regain some momentum before a season full of promise just fizzles out.
“Why else would Arsenal fail to win at home to Middlesbrough with 85% of the possession?”
well, this is EXCELLENT question !
We’ve run out of steam. Just hope to recover it soon, thats all. Its high time we got it back anyway.But I sincerely wish Boss Wenger had bought a winger/forward in January……………
Good article Graham.
There are two angles here - one, that teams are getting tired and two, that football as a whole is getting more competitive.
Of course, the conspiracy angle is much more fun, and there’s also the off chance that arsenal overachieved
United should beat Bolton, at least.
Speaking as a dyed in the wool Newcastle United fan, I just don’t know! It seems to me that fatigue is a big player in these 3/4 slumps. As the season reaches its climax I fully expect teams to pick up and lose less.
Fatigue is a factor, but also just about every team has something really big to play for at this time of the year: the title, Europe, promotion, the play-offs, avoiding relegation etc. With 8 or 9 games to go, most teams in most leagues are highly motivated. People may be playing for their livelihoods.
So, in the EPL for instance, a side fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table (e.g. Wigan, Midldlesboro or Fulham) might prove a tougher proposition than a side with nothing to play for (e.g. West Ham).
High motivation can turn the form book upside down. Just ask Arsenal, who in recent weeks have had to dig in hard to ‘hold’ Birmingham, Wigan and Middlesborough to draws.
i luv conspiracy theories!!
great article!!
conspiracy? yeah right.
“Why else would Arsenal fail to win at home to Middlesbrough with 85% of the possession?”
they could not put thier chances in the back of the net
same goes for manchester united vs portsmouth in the FA cup. I am a man utd fan and i know they could not put their chances away (even though they should never of had a penalty…)
i may be going off track but my point is, all teams have a time where they can not play well. some teams are worse than others when that happens as you see with newcastle.
yet again i do agree with your Grand Slam Sunday prediction. just hope man utd win
I can surely add my opinion, but only about Bayern. After destroying Anderlecht 0-5 in Belgium, then winning a bundesliga game, the players just lacked motive to push themselves and play 100% of their potential on the field. Then in the Bundesliga everyone gives 100% or more of their potential against Bayern…so what happened is just very normal. Besides, the Bundesliga is in constant progress, no team can just fly off too far on top of the table, unless everything goes right, and that’s only up to luck then. The minnows in the Bundesliga arent that easy anymore, not when they’re playing a team to beat, and mid table teams have just recently picked up on their form after suffering so many injuries. Bremen and Stuttgart were thrashed in the Champions League because each had atleast 6 injured players during the group stage. Missing two or three stars, or even more essential players really slammed their team play to the ground, when they return from injury they wont do a miracle but they will jump up the table. Bayern got over confident and the players didnt give their best, it was the right time for a wake up call, and i’m sure Ottmar Hitzfeld taught his team another lesson after the defeat.
Arsenal are a great team, but mostly very young, sometimes experience helps win those matches that they tied. Chelsea has not been consistent and we all know why. Manchester are getting stronger day after day but God knows in football. Newcastle havent reached stability but Kevin Keegan must start creating consistency. Liverpool are coming back with a vengeance, but it wont be Benitez’s wisdom that will do marvels, it would be the form of Gerrard as well as Torres.
Madrid’s mid field is the most inconsistent in all leagues, either from injuries or squad rotation, schuster has done a lot to bring in new players and make them perform as a team, but i think that the sporting director has brought in so many talent that would need to grow like in Arsenal…that’s new for Madrid, they usually get the fully formed star. Barcelona are unstable, in their management and coaching, so what do you expect, it reflects on the field, players that dont know if they will stay next season or not, as well as the coach.
Italian league? i used to love it, but no comment after all this corruption and it is still breathing through them all…what a waste.
Gooner,
If you’re attributing Arsenal’s slump to the Eduardo injury then I it says a lot about their mental toughness.
Arsenal have run out of steam. Most neutrals refused to make them favourites all season as they are such an unknown quantity and questions still needed to be answered. In fairness, they answered all the questions asked of them until recently but now that the chips are down they’ve been found wanting.
They have suddenly developed a problem in front of goal.
Consider this:
Adebayor: 1 goal in 7 games. 10 goals in the 7 games prior to this.
Fabregas: 2 goals in 22 games. 11 goals in 16 games prior to this.
Eduardo(before injury): 1 goal in 10 games. 12 altogether for the season.
Hleb: 4 goals for the season but none since November.
Bendtner: 1 goal in 10 games. 6 for the season.
Could it be that teams have learnt how to ‘play’ Arsenal, who were something of an unknown quantity at the start of the season?
Maybe too much was expected of this young team too soon. A loss to Chelsea on Sunday and I think there PL challenge is all but done.
I think it comes down to experience, mental toughness and depth of squad at this stage of the season.
In Spain, both Real and Barca have shown that they are flawed. Real are gone from the CL and Barca look great on paper but consider Henry, Ronaldinho and Eto compared to the same players 2 or 3 years ago.
In Italy Inter have had a period of injuries with some key players just returned.
Bayern have been cruising and will still win the Bundesliga comfortably in my opinion. Just a little complacency.
In the PL its going to be a fight between Utd and Chelsea again. Kudos to Arsenal and they can only get better in future years but in terms of squad depth and experience I think it’s just a season too soon for them.
The managers are all losing on purpose in order to convince their respective chairmen/owners that they need to spend the ridiculous amount of dosh it would take to get Ronaldo from United.
BD Condell
Eduardo was helping to supply chances for Adebayor in the 10 games leading up to the injury. He was proving to be an excellent team player in that period. Since the injury Arsenal haven’t created many chances.
This 4 game spell without both Van Persie and Eduardo (as well as Toure and Rosicky) has been the low point of the season for the Gunners as an attacking force. As Van Persie gets fitter Arsenal will hopefully get some form back.
Teams find it alot easier to play United when Ronaldo and Rooney are missing.
Chelsea are a bit different because of the sheer quality of their squad. Their weakness is the fact that Grant has yet to prove himself in England.
The next 6 to 8 weeks will be the most exciting in the history of English football.
Gooner,
Fair enough on the Eduardo supply point but its also fair to say that he is not automatic first choice i.e. with Van Persie fit he’d be back to the bench, if available.
Also, Toure and Van Persie both played against Boro and came on together for 25 minutes of the Wigan game, so not quite accurate to claim they missed the 4 games.
And whose place does Rosicky take in the team? Aren’t Eboue, Fabregas, Flamini and Hleb Wenger’s 1st choice four across the middle?
As regards Utd. Well of course its easier without Ronaldo and Rooney, they’re world class, but you might remember a recent game where Ronaldo was nowhere to be seen and Rooney played only 70 minutes. 4-0 if you recall.
If you’re trying to make a case that Arsenal’s recent form was down to injuries and that Utd are too dependent on Rooney/Ronaldo, I’m afraid your grasping at straws.
It will be an exciting 6 to 8 weeks as you say but, and I mean no malice when I say, I think it will end in tears for Arsenal and, the way things are going, sooner rather than later.
It will be interesting to see the ins and outs for Arsenal in the Summer!
I think a lot of it is due to teams tiring down. The situation in Spain is probably the worst. Even if Real & Barca are losing points regularly, teams like Atletico or Villarreal are not making an effort to overtake these two. At least Villarreal are just two points off the second place. Barca are too disjointed at the moment with a complete lack of direction.
Arsenal have been found out.Stop the passing.Simple.
BDCondell
After 5 months out, the RVP playing v Wigan and Boro was not the RVP all Gunners know and love.
Although Arsenal look the least likely at the moment and their next 6 games couldn’t be harder they have been playing recently in second gear in the league. They can and will play better.
United have looked the most comfortable in top four league games this season but all those matches have been lacking something. I get the feeling that’s about to change. This Sunday will be explosive.
On the rare occasions when Rosicky is fit, he is ahead of Eboue in the pecking order. Eboue has no idea in either penalty area and is only good at winding everyone up. His occasional decent cross and clever link up play are not enough to stop him being the most despised Arsenal player in living memory. If he plays at the Bridge and avoids a red card I’ll be amazed.
Premier League:
I think Arsenal are running out of steam, especially after beating Milan. It was evident there that they were in full focus to advance in the Champions League and give a statement… bu then they draw 5 games unconvincingly and are drawn to take on Liverpool, who right now are one of the better sides in the EPL. If they screw up, they have the CL to crank it up. (And they’d be happy to know that Arsenal are slumping in the league)
In the Serie A, Inter are suffering from injuries. Cordoba is out for the long term. Roma and Juventus are gaining, but its Inter’s title to lose. If Fiorentina hold off AC Milan until the very end, we will see a revamped AC Milan in the UEFA CUP next season. (Just like Bayern are now)
In La Liga, I just don’t get why when Real Madrid show Barca some light at the end of the tunnel, Barca close their eyes and avoid that shimmering glint. It’s confusing.
In the Bundesliga, Bayern have suffered a defeat and have a wake-up call: they need to beat the remaining challengers convincingly. Also, having Demichelis out of that game against Cottbus cost them a lot. Winning against Wolfsburg in the Cup is now a priority.
@James: you could do that to any team and then beat them, tbh
i think the other leagues (spain, italy, germany & france) are in tact. the league leaders right now are bound to win the titles. esp since ALL of them are also out of the CL. as for arsenal, its been very disappointing to see them lose a 5 point lead so DAMN EASY!!! i think arsenal have been most surprising, but if they get back their form (winning form) in the last 8 matches, i can see arsenal winning the title. there is still the matter of arsenal vs manchester united to settle. although i think it is a man utd home match. i think winning against milan have gotten them a bit slack on the league, a title that is in their grasp rather than the CL. i think it is impossible for arsenal to win the CL. but the EPL should be their primary target, which they are fooling around with a bit too much.
This Sunday, if United beat Liverpool and Arsenal lose to Chelsea, the title is over for Arsenal.
To have a realistic chance, Arsenal must beat Chelsea i.e. inflict a home defeat on Chelsea (in the league) for the first time in 4 years. Arsenal were the last team to do it …