The death of football
The headline may be a bit sensationalist, but hidden away beneath the increasing revenues and global popularity of the sport is a deeply disturbing trend which may spell trouble for the beautiful game.
The Class System
An informal class system is readily apparent across the major leagues in Europe and the gap between the top teams and the rest is only widening. The EPL rests under the thumbs of the big four (Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal), the Bundesliga can be winnowed down similarly to a handful (Schalke, Stutgart, Werder Bremen and Bayern jump to mind), the Italians have their quartet (Milan, Inter, Juventus and to a lesser extent Roma) while the Spanish are, for the most part, a two horse race (Real and Barca… although Valencia can be included as well).
The gap between these teams and the rest keeps growing while UEFA and the governing bodies do nothing to correct it. Instead we are left without suspense and without surprise. I already know, at the beginning of every season, that one of the big four will win the EPL while the rest slug it out for UEFA spots and to avoid relegation. The gap isn’t only in the brand name or money but also in talent. It is far easier for the big names to attract talent in the form of youth and expensive stars while the rest have the choice to either choose from leftovers or hope to get lucky with youth that the larger teams have overlooked.
The end result of this is that the bigger teams, the ones with a global reach and audience have an easier time attracting and retaining talent. This forces the highest levels of talent to be concentrated into a handful of teams ensuring that those teams retain their stranglehold on the league, the money and the audience which in turn ensures the attraction of even more talent. This continual loop cements the dominance of a few and destroys the competitiveness of the rest.
A Structural Problem
This same problem exists in most professional leagues around the world but with a slightly different dynamic. I’ll take some time to compare the situation in Europe and football with the situation in the United States with their top leagues: MLB (baseball), NFL (football- the american kind) and NBA (basketball). I’ll refrain from making a direct comparison to the MLS because, well, the teams in the MLS suck equally across the board.
The NFL is probably the most equitable (or mediocre depending on your view) of all the leagues. A hard salary cap, a yearly amateur draft and competent management across the board means that any given team can win in any year if the pieces fall together.
The NBA comes next in terms of equality. Although their salary cap isn’t has restrictive as the NFL’s, it still limits the ability of a team to aggregate talent. The volatility can be readily seen as the teams that dominated the 80’s (Lakers, Celtics and Sixers) are now reduced to bottom of the league squads while a new crop of powerhouses rise (Spurs, Suns, Cavaliers, Mavericks).
The MLB is the closest parallel to the situation in football. There is no hard salary cap and the big markets (New York, Chicago, Boston and Los Angeles) attract the top free agents. This league, more than any other in the US, is ruled by money and prestige. Nevertheless, it has been shown repeatedly over the past decade that the richest team isn’t necessarily the one that will win the title (see New York). The effect of money and prestige is nullified to a certain extent by the revenue sharing concept and most importantly by the amateur draft.
The Difference
So how is it that the US leagues mitigate the concentration effect of money and prestige? They force talent towards the teams who are worse off. All three leagues have amateur drafts in which the team with the worst record in the previous season gets to choose first and therefore (theoretically) select the top talent. The contract structure, the revenue distribution and the salary cap (in the case of the NFL and NBA) conspire to keep that youth at the team that drafted him for a certain number of years. The amateur draft and the organizations of the leagues make sure that the only way you can be continually horrid and without hope for a championship is to have grossly incompetent management or horrible luck.
The Chicago Bulls provide a great example of this situation. They were the dominant force in the NBA during the 90’s. They had the best player to ever play (Michael Jordan), a solid second superstar (Pippen) and the best coach in the league (Jackson). They had a solid cast of supporters and went on to win 6 championships in that decade. Towards the end of the decade however, the stars retired and the coach left forcing the team into disarray and bleeding it of talent. For the next 7 years (starting 1998), the Bulls languished at the bottom or near the bottom of the league. They suffered from mismanagement the first couple of years which prolonged their misery but with each bad season came a high draft pick.
They were able to slowly accumulate talent and rebuild their squad. After almost 10 years, they are considered one of the elite teams in the league and possess, arguably, the youngest and most talented nucleus in the game.
This ability for teams to succeed, fail and rise again is what the European leagues lack. Instead we are forced into a static situation where teams are perpetually locked into a spot in the table, where a fall from grace means going from #1 to #3 and only a mammoth infusion of cash (Chelsea) can force team from the dregs of the league to the top. A system to redistribute cash and talent is something that the game desperately needs. Otherwise, the leagues will become increasingly static, marginalizing not only the other teams, but their fans as well by destroying any hope of a Champions League spot or a shot at the title.
And that destruction of hope is the worst crime of all.
I understand your intent here, but there is a fundamental difference between American leagues and the leagues here in Europe: There is only a single division in the US. No second division and so on. All talent come from colleges who anyway don’t compete with the professional clubs.
In Europe, clubs develop their own talent pool (or at least have a youth system in place). So if another club takes one club’s talent, it must get its compensation for its investment. Here it becomes a free market where the market forces determine the price of a player. Simple capitalism.
Say what you may, that kind of system is the least worst system. (I don’t want to say its the best)
American clubs are more franchises where ridiculous things like a club owner deciding to pack up and shift his club from one city to another happens. The traditions and rabid fan following is hardly to be seen in professional sport in the US. Only college sports sparks such passion here in the US.
That way, given the crazy fans that we have in soccer, the game is far from dead.
This troubling issue of the concentration of power and success is rightly addressed, but this is a gross misapplication of comparisons with major American sports.
Colleges and universities are where talent is grown and few make the jump from the amateur to professional level without passing through the NCAA. Regardless, each player usually enters the respective draft, which is structured to prevent the best teams from acquiring the best young talent year after year.
In contrast, young footballers around the world rarely find themselves in such a situation. A promising talent will find himself being recruited in his early-teenage years, but is likely to be picked up by a powerful club within a few years, if not right away.
Why? The absence of a salary-cap is one major reason. As long as an owner’s coffers are the limit, the Abramovich-types will be able to step in on a whim, write out a few big checks, and transform a club.
To the benefit of the game, I think (and hope) Chelsea are beginning to serve as an example that money doesn’t buy infinite success. Sure, the Blues won the Carling and FA Cups, but when you compare salaries with other major clubs, the numbers suggest Chelsea should win the quadruple outright. As it is, it seems Abramovich and company will take a more low-key approach this off-season and consider buying the right players instead of the most expensive players.
The relegation system in the rest of the world is a powerful tool that keeps the leagues (below the upper-echelon) healthier. Clubs like Alaves and Real Sociedad are examples of teams that flirted with success in the last decade, but have since fallen victim to the forces of relegation. Leeds followed suit in England.
Football is not dying. But that’s not to say we (and the powers that be) should not look to improve the system. I don’t think, however, that the American examples cited above are practical solutions.
First, it is wrong to say the NFL has competent management across the board. Yes, it has the most parity of the major American sports, but one could safely say half the league simply cannot win, another quarter won’t less a miracle, and the other quarter has a chance. Thus, saying “any given team can win” is a bit of an exaggeration, but I take your meaning.
Second, the NBA offers no real solutions for football (soccer). While talent may be better-dispersed than in football, the conference/division structure is so flawed that the Eastern Conference has become a joke since MJ retired from the Bulls. Yes, the Baby Bulls are giving Chicago hope again and LeBron is putting Cleveland on the map, but the best of the best teams are in the Western Conference.
Third, read something you wrote: “I’ll refrain from making a direct comparison to the MLS because, well, the teams in the MLS suck equally across the board.” The part I found interesting was “equally.” I’m not trying to legitimize MLS by any means. MLS’ problems are a subject of another blog altogether. But MLS does have a salary cap and just this year instituted the “Beckham Rule,” effectively limiting the number of players with huge salaries each team can have (it has other provision too, but this is the important part for this topic). Now I’m not suggesting the major European football leagues implement such a policy, but there has to be some sort of system limited what teams can, 1) pay to acquire players and; 2) pay players each week.
Ok, so i understand what your saying, and to a large extent i would agree with your diagnosis of the problem, however the solution of drafting young talent in like the states cannot work in the European leagues for the simple reason of a completely different system. In the US, kids play for their schools till they graduate when they are 18 and then all get drafted together. So it is possible for weaker teams to get better talent. But in Europe, where kids start training at the age of 14 and 15 with their respective regional clubs, how can another team be allowed to pick them up after another club has spent so much time and money into training them ? and another thing, in football age isn’t much of a barrier as compared to US sports. Look at fletcher Fabrigas and Rooney as examples. At the age of 16 these guys where pushed into arguably the toughest league in the world. How often do you see 16 year olds playing in the NFL ? As a whole, the quality of the league is also getting pushed up, look at portsmouth everton spurs bolton all banging on the top 4 door. i agree with the problem of being a static top 3-4 in each league but following an american system cant be the solution.
One method is to limit the powers of clubs.
The other is to give all clubs the financial means to compete.
The takeovers in the Premier League will eventually do that.
Excellent article though, and I hope you write here again.
While the draft system and the salary caps make sense at the beginning there are the systemic problems that A and RedRanter have alluded to. Other than that, what happens if a player doesn’t want to play for a particular team for whatever reasons?
Though my knowledge of the US system is sparse, afaik, he would be sitting out for the season unless the team trades him or something. Basically the player himself has no say in probably the biggest decision of his career. Am not sure that is a good mechanism. We can go along the lines that players are basically mercenaries but we also hope that not all of them are for the good of the game.
I agree completely - it’s a very worrying trend - the wrong trend - with the best teams getting the bigger share of TV money and premiership money. It leads to what we have in the Premiership right now - a 4 team league - and unless we change something it will only get worse. I live in the US so understand what you are saying and many Americans don’t understand the system we are operating - because they immediately point to the discrepancy - that the best will get more money…so the weaker ones will get less - and cannot compete. Not sure what the solution is - you cannot have the bottom teams get the most money - that doesn’t work - but there’s no draft like there is in American sports.
Takeovers is what are making teams able to compete - like Aston Villa, West Ham and Newcastle for next season.
Glad this article got out - very good - there’s a big problem with Football and this is it - and the system will not work in the long term.
btw, as ahmed said excellent article … during my recent visit to the US I debated the issue with some of my NFL and NBA crazy colleagues and they were of the opinion that people are much more passionate about the college teams rather than the professional teams for the reason that they don’t feel too attached to them.
I am guessing that with the globalization of football, a new set of fans are emerging who have no local ties to the club they are supporting (me being one of them) but still the loyalty factor has also somehow seeped into the mix.
Lastly, I really do not know how much of cross national influence NFL and NBA have but my guess is that it is considerably lesser than in the football leagues. The adoption of a draft, salary cap etc would then be contingent on every country accepting it and not one.
Excellent artile. I like the layout and the reasoning.
I can agree that the USA system works well in USA, but don’t see it working in Europe. This will be almost like forcing an overnight sollution down onto a problem that took over 100 years to evolve into its current state. I think the main problem with the big leagues are the money that television have thrown into it, and how its been split. One example is the difference in money between the premier and championship leagues.
I think that one of the problems with the EPL is the goal/aim of the non big-4 clubs. I think the main aim of most is to “just survive the season in the Premiership”. This way, maximum benefit can be derived from tv, gate and player sales.
In theory, my philosphy to break into the top-4 should be fairly easy:
1. Invest major money in a damn good manager like Jose
2. Build a “dedicated” team over 4 years by scouting worldwide (especially cheap african, asian, etc markets - asian preference because of the possible fan “market”)…emphasis on talented, cheap players - no stars.
3. Do NOT sell your best players.
4. Push for a serious title challenge.
5. After winning the title, sell most of the team, make hefty profit, and start again with 4 year plan.
With someone like Jose - and I’m not even a Chelsea fan - how difficult can this be
I believe a salary cap, could and should be imposed in football, its not that hard to do, in fact with the way thing are heading with Platini in the UEFA i’m pretty certain he has such a measure in mind… A Draft however is another story… football is a global sport, teams scout their players half way across the world, however, again it can be done but basically at a nation-wide level.
But you gotta remember that a HUGE problem with having a draft system is the possibility of ‘tanking’, ala the Celtics this year.
Imagine if there was a draft for the EPL this coming season, and two of the players ‘graduating’ to be eligible for the draft were Ronaldo and Fabregas (just like in the NBA it was Oden and Durant). For all the teams that won’t have a realistic shot at the Premierhsip or a European place, thats a pretty big incentive to suck enough and be one of the worst teams in the league in order to have a chance at Ronaldo or Fabregas. Drafting one of them could affect a teams fortunes for the next decade.
Then you have an even bigger problem with so many teams trying to lose as much as possible. That on top of the problems with having so many teams across so many countries make the draft idea pretty hard to implement.
but something definitely needs to be done to break the top 4 stranglehold. its far too predictable. Salary cap is a great idea
nice article btw
The FA had made a rule regarding the minimum number of homegrown players each club should have in their respective teams, which sounded like a good way to challenge the problem you mentioned. For example a club like Westham who boasts of a good youth system will profit well and it would force other clubs to invest in nurturing talent. I dont what happened to that rule or the specifics of it, any ideas?
Ah, a salary cap has certain benefits, but you’d have to be able to have this cap imposed upon the entirety of Europe, or all English teams would be facing a severe disadvantaged when they competed continentally.
Certainly, while the influence of cash is felt at every level, it isn’t the sole determination of success. While it can buy temporary, short-term success (Chelsea), it doesn’t change the simple fact that the way to long-term success is through the creation of a better organization as a whole. In the long run, the business model of an organization such as Chelsea is bound for failure. Simply, no football team can have substainable success wasting such an influx of cash on marginal players, as they have. For every dollar spent on Bollack, it removes a dollar from play on the rest.
The pyschology of a sports fan is interesting. It’s almost like a battered wife; they’re smacked around and around, but still continue to support their team. Because of a simple location and the jersey, the majority of a fans are willing to support a club through its losses, unappreciative foreign players, and continually increasing prices. Each of these have in the past been used to forecast the ruin of the league, but I think the overall cumulative affect will not.
Rather, the only real threat I see is the growing popularity of other sports leagues within traditional football countries. Previous to the 1960’s, MLB was the sole team sport of significance within America, but after the introduction of American football, and the later introduction of basketball, the percentage of the marketplace significantly dropped. Will this equal the ruination of the game? No, of course not. Baseball is thriving with record revenues, as of now. Football will have to grow increasingly competetive and adopt a more fan-friendly atmosphere, though.
Also, while in theory you’re right about MLB teams having an amateur draft, the best prospects still end up with the richer teams by placing wage demands higher than the poor teams are willing to expend for an eighteen year old with less than a fifty percent chance of reaching the major rules.
On the Beckham rule, Corey, I don’t believe the intention was to limit high-priced players, but to allow the club to go outside of the salary cap to have up to two exemptions whose salaries do not count within it.
for me football is getting better every year!! dont fix something that isnt broken! but i think if the gulf gets 2 big, then something shud be done.
Just for reference sake, there cannot be a salary cap in Europe because of EU laws which prevents a cap on salaries on any industry plied in Europe. Plus once again you can just choose players and expect them to play for you because once again, EU law is very strict on free trade of human labour to a company. I’m no lawyer but i think this is what the law basically states. Once again good article and got the problem spot on, but cant really see any way out of it. But about what Ed said, i dont think takeovers is really the solution either. To be fair, we are still only a couple of years into foreign take overs and while things seem ok now, they might not be in the future. The problem is you cant run a football club like a company because the stake holders are more valuable and important that the share holders. The new investors may seem eager to pump in money now to ease fear in the fan base but in a few years when time comes to balance the books and make profits, i think it could be a whole world of trouble.
Just to address the point of a salary cap, it’s an idea that’s been floated a few times, and some clubs have even willingly imposed something similar to one (I believe the G14 is trying to do so), which consists of limiting club wages to a certain percentage of annual turnover. And perhaps within a more homogenous organization like the G14, or as a requirement for Champions’ League participation, it could work to a certain extent, i.e. guaranteeing the fiscal responsibilities of the clubs. But in a domestic league? I think not. The budgets of clubs are too diverse. If you maintain it as a percentage, say 60%, then the situation remains the same; 60% of Nastic’s budget of 15m euros is 9m. 60% of Real Madrid’s budget is 180m euros. I don’t see how this solves anything, the gap remains the same. Even medium sized clubs in Spain (and Im sure the cases are similar in Italy, England, and elsewhere), have budgets that are 8 or 10 times smaller than the those of the biggest clubs. Do you limit wages to a fixed level? 50m euros is only 16-20% for teams like Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd. It is well over 100% for teams like Mallorca, Racing Santander, and many others.
Hi all, thanks for all your comments and sorry I haven’t been able to reply sooner (internet issues).
I agree that the concept of relegation and promotion as well as the established method of scouting early and bringing in 14-15 year olds means that the idea of an amateur draft is pretty much impossible to implement in the football leagues.
That being said, I’m sorry for being unclear in the article about my solution(s). The point of the article was to simply point out the problem I see in the football world and contrast it with the situation in America.
I’m going to work on a follow up article that takes a look at the EPL and how to solve the increasing financial and talent gap.
If anyone has any details on where I can find how the FA distributes revenue/prizes/money to the teams, I’d appreciate it.
Very interesting article. Since there’s been so many comments on the difference in system overall between footie in Europe, and the American sports, I won’t add to that.
My comment is more on the predictability of the major leagues (or probably all leagues), since I only partly agree. Yes, it is easy to see who will constitute the top 4 in England next year and probably the year after, but you can’t predict it much further into the future, since there’s actually quite a few changes made historically. I know your point is that it’s an increasing problem, but I think we’ve been saying that for quite some years now, and still there have been changes in the leagues (let’s stick with the 4 major ones). Basically very few teams manage to stay on top for a very long time. By far the most predictable leagues have been Serie A , where Juventus, Inter Milan, AC Milan and then most of the time Roma, have constituted the top 4 (T4) lately, and the Premiership.
I have only looked 5-6 years back, and still there are probably more changes, than most people think. In Germany the only regular contender since the 2001/02 season has, of course, been Bayern Münich - but they have “only” won it 3 times out of 6. All other top 4 teams since then are: Stuttgart, Schalke, Bremen, HSV, Hertha Berlin, Leverkusen, Dortmund - that’s a total of 8 teams in the T4. Bremen have had 4 appearences in the T4, and Shalke and Stuttgart both 3. Quite irregular in general.
In Spain the only team to appear in the T4 every year is Real Madrid (won it 2 times incl this season - my guess). Barca ended 6th in 02/03 (won it 2 times), but has been up there all the other years. Other T4 teams have been: Sevilla, Valencia, Villareal, Real Betis, Deportivo, Real Sociedad, Celta Vigo - that’s a total of 9 teams. Valencia have been in there 4 times, Deportivo 3 times, the rest 2 or less.
In England MU (naturally - have made the T4 in very very many years in a row, quite remarkable imo) and Arsenal have been regulars. Chelsea have had 5 appearences, Liverpool 4, Newcastle 2 and Everton 1. Quite predictable, I agree. But the thing is, a lot of things happen to change these tendencies. Before Abramovich, Chelsea were the Tottenham and Everton of today, fighting it out for UEFA cup spots. I know the argument may not be the strongest when looking at England, but I’m pretty sure that we’ll see changes in not too many years even in England. Tottenham might have a crack at the T4 next season.
My point is that even though the leagues may seem predictable, I think it’s only in the short term, we can really be sure, which is why the sport will continue to be thrilling.
Plus there is, as pointed out by some, the fan factor - everyone has his or her team, and they’ll support it no matter what. The goal of Blackburn will not be the title next season, it’ll be making it to the T6 for UEFA cup. Those not supporting the major teams, use a lot of energy not-liking the major clubs too, and so it’s a game of passion, where every club with its supporters have goals to aim at, and successes to dream of - the game lives more than ever imo.
I hope my points came across and that anybody cared to read my rather long contribution to the matter. Great debate this one.
i fink da gulf is too big abn sumit needs to be done but fuked if i now wot 2 do bowt it
As you can see there are not only the top teams in a specific league that grow and become SUPER GIANTS,but also the poor leagues that become poorer(the Markov Rule).We have(France),Greece,(Portugal),Russia,Sweden,Denmark,Scotland,Hungary,Austria,Romania,the Yugoslavian countries and other countries with great football trandition that don’t have a competitive team in the Champions League and they will never have.Even if they will,it will be cause of new Abramovichs.So,commercial and financial benefits from Champions League and other TV products are for rich leagues and rich teams.
This means that historical teams such as Red Star,Celtic,CSKA Moscow etc. have no future in the European competitions while the Tottenahams,Sevillas and Udieses do have really strong and European squads.Also,the talents that can be produced by the poorer (also historical) teams have the ability to become EPL and La Liga superstars and it’s a fact they prefer this one than their first love.You may produce a talent but you’ll lose it,cause you did’t have the money and you’ll never have under these circumstances.
The conclusion is that market’s rules and football competitions such as CL,that gives all the money to the rich teams, are the reasons that football in poor Countries -and clubs- suffers.All you have to do is to change them but how can we do it?I think we can just sit down comfortably and enjoy the scene.
Ahmed I was going to write a huge article refering to historical teams and how CL and free market have destroyed them.Unfortunately,longshot got it first.
Interesting comment Tomas. A bit long, but very informative.
Does the Champions League structure not also contribute to the rift of T4 and the rest?
Firstly, I think it should be renamed to something else. Champions League - I feel - implies that the Champions of each country fight it out with each other in order to decide who is the Euro champion. Not, the top4 of this country, the top2 of that one, and these ones need to have a play-off. I think this structure, although good for viewing and money, causes the rift to become even greater and loses the true meaning of ‘champions’. Eg. Liverpool won the CL (but have NEVER won the English Premier), Chelsea won the EPL. What exactly did this ‘champions’ mean? Who was the champions, the better team, them or Chelsea?
[...] time I delved into the growing discrepancy in talent between the top teams in the world and everyone else. I offered nothing in terms of solutions in [...]