The Battle For Fourth Place
In the summer of 2009, the usual predictions were cast on the aspirations of clubs in the Barclays Premier League. The Big Four’s greatest threat was said to come from Manchester City, Tottenham and maybe Aston Villa and Everton, while the club most likely to drop out of the Big Four was Manchester United or Arsenal.
Come last week of November, 3 months into the campaign and the predictions are mostly spot on. Tottenham are leading the race to challenge for the coveted 4th spot, with Manchester City and Aston Villa close behind. Chelsea, as expected, are top of the table.
But instead of United or Arsenal – two clubs who ‘failed’ to strengthen over the summer, are far more secure than Liverpool, the club expected to ‘challenge’ for the title.
In fact on current evidence, Liverpool – 13 points off the table leaders and 5 points off 4th placed Tottenham – need to improve massively to even qualify for the Champions League next season.
Liverpool, City and Villa are separated by a point each, and both Arsenal and Tottenham are just 3 points ahead, so it’s far from settled. What seems likely is that Arsenal, despite the odd hiccup, are unlikely to succumb to a free-for-all for 3rd / 4th and instead will consolidate their position over the next 2 months.
Let’s look at each of the 4 clubs likely to make a play for the last Champions League slot – and then you can make your own predictions at the end.
Liverpool
Rafa Benitez – correctly – states that once the injured players are back, Liverpool would be a much stronger unit and will start winning more games. The truth is that the likes of Tottenham, Manchester City and Aston Villa have shown weaknesses in recent years when it comes to maintaining a challenge at the top of the table – and that will be the key for Liverpool moving into a key passage of play in December, where a good run of form could see them shoot back up the table.
But to make good on their promise, Liverpool have to stop giving away points away from home – they have lost 4 of 6 away games this season. If they end up losing 12 of 19 away games this season, or even 10, they’ll struggle to qualify for Europe.
Tottenham
A 9-1 win taken out of context is a wonderful, record-breaking achievement. Considering that it comes in the same season where Spurs lost to Arsenal 3-0, Spurs are still a work in progress albeit one with great potential.
Their Achilles heel is their defense, and apart from the fact that they are terrible at defending away from home, they also need to make sure that they either groom another central defender from the youth ranks or bring someone in as backup to the injury-prone duo of Woodgate and King. It’ll be interesting to see who Harry buys in January (especially if Pavlyuchenko is to go and Harry will have cash to spend).
Manchester City
Need to start turning draws into wins, both home and away. On paper they have a very strong squad but they have failed to gel together defensively, something that will worry Mark Hughes quite a bit.
Buying another center-back – especially after spending so much money on Toure and Lescott – seems silly, so City’s best bet at this point is to work on improving what they have and sort out what to do with Robinho. An unhappy player – especially one with a history of creating trouble if he doesn’t want to stay at the club – will hold them back.
Qualification for Europe – even if its the Europa League – will be success for City. If it means getting shot of Robinho and bringing in squad reinforcements elsewhere, why not?
Aston Villa
Take out their away win against Liverpool and Villa’s away record is fairly poor, and that’s unfortunate given how strong the team are on the counter. They could only draw against Burnley on the weekend and while some will argue that Burnley have already given plenty of teams trouble at home, draws for Villa will end up hurting them in the end.
Liverpool, and to a certain extent City and Spurs, have shown the strength to turn up their games against the Big Three. Villa haven’t shown that resolve yet, and this makes their games against the rest of the league that much more important.
Predictions
The season has passed the one-third mark, and already we’ve seen one team fall out of the title race. Will we see one of these four teams fall out of the race for the Champions League spot as well? Let us know your thoughts below.
Photos from Tottenahm-Wigan
Topics: Aston Villa, English Premier League, Features, Liverpool, Manchester City, Tottenham
When Spurs started well, then got beaten by Man U, Chelsea and Arsenal, there were gleeful reports that, once again, their supporters had overestimated the side. Truth is, they hadn’t, it was the media who had built up expectations. Now they basically want to do it again. I hope Spurs supporters don’t bite.
23/11/2009, 09:33The way the media write anybody would think that Liverpool are the only ones with injury problems! ManUre, Ar$ & Spurs have also had their problems!!
23/11/2009, 09:40Hmm, I know that the win can be taken out of context but what impresses me about Spurs is their quality in depth, needed to sustain a decent shot at breaking into the top four. They have basically two good players for each position, they DID have Cudicini and Gomes as keepers, they have Bale and Assou-Ekotto and left-back, King, Woodgate and Bassong at centre back, Bentley and Lennon out wide left, Huddlestone, Jenas, Modric, Kranjcar and Palacios in the centre of the park, and Keane, Defoe, Crouch and Pavlyuchenko up front.
This is more than the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal can boast, or even city with their high spending (and I am a Liverpool fan). While both Liverpool and Arsenal have a better first XI, as we have learnt in previous campaigns, when the pressures of Europe get great as well, quality in depth is a must.
23/11/2009, 09:51It makes me laugh that Liverscum are starting to drop down the table, about time! They are normally the most luckiest team in the prem getting a last minute penalty from a blatent dive to steel the three points. No more though! They are getting just what they deserve for not getting rid of Rafa (poppa smurf) years ago. Considering he has spent over 250 million pound, and what has he got to show for it? Nothing. Gerald H put together a good team and it was ripped apart by pappa smurf. The last champions league trophy won was with that team and then came the changes that started making Liverscum go backwards. The other funny thing is how all you scouss scumbags praise the knob. Why??? He is crap and thats the bottom line. I hope you faile to win anything again this season and are not even in europe next year. And one last bet! I no for a fact that the tit who responds to this will go on about history, history history. Its getting boring so please try something new. We move forward in life, no backwards unless you are the liverscum squad……………
23/11/2009, 11:22Alexisgod
They have a great squad with such depth that when beaten soundly by Arsenal they said “ah but we had 3 Injuries” to put it in prespective Arsenal had 7
23/11/2009, 11:30knee-jerkers
23/11/2009, 11:54“Liverpool, and to a certain extent City and Spurs, have shown the strength to turn up their games against the Big Three. Villa haven’t shown that resolve yet, and this makes their games against the rest of the league that much more important.”
Surely, you are kidding? Villa beat Chelski and Liverpool and drew with Man City, how have we not picked our game up for them?
23/11/2009, 12:11what ther fuck, manu utd to drop from top 4 my ass, my predication is that chelsea, arsenal, man utd, ttothenam as top 4
23/11/2009, 15:51No one can predict the end of the season standings this early, it’s so tight for the race for 4th anything could happen. No doubt the run for the top spot is going to be between Man U and Chelsea, and who really knows what Arsenal will be up to. But it’s got to be said… C’mon you Spurs!
23/11/2009, 20:15Agree with berg. Man U fans always find a way of presenting things like they are really underdogs. Whether it’s writing aritcles about how people writing them off, I’ve never seen a group of fans that has to self-justify as much as you all do, except for maybe Barca fans. Just accept the fact that you follow a big team already. I think most people, myself included, thought that Liverpool would be much more likely to lose its spot in the Big Four. But come on, it’s things like that which make me dislike Man U fans. Your club isn’t an underdog and it will never be.
23/11/2009, 22:10Liverpool will take 4th over the long haul!
25/11/2009, 06:48City have disappointed me thus far.
25/11/2009, 17:51Don’t think Villa quite have enough.
Liverpool are going downhill rapidly.
My money is on Spurs.