With Remembrance Sunday having just occurred a few days ago, we reflect on the men who gave their lives to their countries as well as giving their all on the football pitch. Their bravery on the field of play has been superseded by their courage and character on the field of battle even though some of them had little to no military education.

Here we commemorate and honour football’s top 20 war heroes in this list:

1. Bert Trautmann

The list starts with a goalkeeper as this shot-stopper enjoyed a very interesting career in England, particularly since he was WW II German soldier and he played there immediately after the Second World War. He joined the Luftwaffe in 1941 and he quickly gained promotion, firstly as corporal and then as sergeant of his unit. He earned 5 army badges for his superb work to the Germanic cause. However he was imprisoned by the British for his role against them in the war and he most of his sentence in Cheshire.

On his release, he farmed and played football part-time before eventually turning professional with St. Helens for a season. He then transferred to Manchester City in 1949, where he got a very mixed welcome  due to his role in the war. However 15 years later after leaving the Citizens, he etched his name into their history books as one of their finest ‘keepers ever.

He won both the FA Cup and FWA for Player of the year in 1956 on his way to making more than 500 appearances for the Manchester club. He also enjoyed spells in charge of Stockport County, Liberia and Pakistan before retiring from all footballing activities in 1983.

2. Alexander “Sandy” Turnbull

This Scottish striker etched his name into the hearts of the fans of both Manchester clubs in the early 20th century with his goalscoring skill. Having netted 143 goals in 230 Football League appearances, he had a sensational goal to game ratio.

Having won the FA Cup with Manchester City, he crossed the metropolis to join arch-rivals Manchester United where he enjoyed a golden period of success winning two First Division titles, but notably scoring the winner in the 1909 FA Cup final. However his career was cut short by the First World War as his last game came against Sheffield Wednesday in 1915.

He was also later found guilty of match-fixing and received a life-long football ban before joining the armed forces. Having risen to the ranks of Lance Sergeant in the Eight Battalion of the East Surrey regiment in the British Amry, he was killed on 3rd May 1917 in a battle in Arras, France. He was 32 but as a result of his heroic effort overseas, his ban was rescinded in 1919 after the war ended.

3. Eddie Latheron

Affectionately nicknamed ”Pinkie” on the terraces due his red hair and pale complexion, Latheron is remembered as a legend to Blackburn Rovers and a martyr for his country. The inside forward scored 94 goals in 258 appearances for his hometown club and it was this, coupled with his unselfish play that made him a firm fan favourite among the Lancashire faithful. The one-club man helped the Rovers conquer England twice during the 1911-12 and 1913-14 seasons as those First Division titles are his only silverware.

However the outbreak of the war in 1914 compelled him to enlist and within a week after his final game for Blackburn, he was a gunner on the front for the Royal Field Artillery. At 29 years of age, he was killed on 14th October 1917 at the Battle of Passenchendaele. Such is his legendary status, a group of Belgian Blackburn Rovers fans commemorated the striker on the 90th anniversary of his death at his grave located nears Ypres.

4. Vivian Woodward

Woodward was the Lionel Messi of his day when organised soccer began to gain prominence in Britain. Spells with Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea proved fruitful as he yielded 93 goals in 238 appearances. Having also appeared for the English nation side, it was his participation with the Great Britain team in the 1908 and 1912 which garnered him great fame. He captained the team to the gold medal on each occasion.

Woodward enlisted in the army and missed a huge portion of Chelsea’s 1914-15 season. However he was given special leave to attend his team’s FA Cup final but unfortunately Sheffield United beat the Pensioners 3-0 on the day. Having returned to the front for a second spell, his leg was badly injured by a stray grenade in 1916 and thus had to return home for the final time, with his footballing careers also in tatters. Despite being maimed, Vivian lived on until he was 74 years of age in 1954 and he will always be remembered as one of the pioneers of the beautiful game.

5. Walter Tull

Tull was the inaugural man who broke so much new ground up until his premature death in 1918 at the age of 29. The second ever mixed-heritage football player to ply his trade professionally in the English First Division, after signing with Tottenham Hotspur. However he has a short and unhappy time there as racial abuse seriously affected him and thus he moved to Northampton Town for a ”substantial fee.” In 3 years, he accumulated 110 games with the Cobblers, scoring 9 goals in that time-span.

When war broke out in 1914, he was the first Northampton player to enlist in the armed forces. Despite even more racial problems in the British army, he was promoted to Second Lieutenant, the first mixed-race men to do so. Having heroically fought through the Battle of the Somme, he met his end on 25th March 1918. He was gunned down in the Pas-de-Calais but his body was never recovered from that gruesome scene. Tull was recognised for his outstanding efforts to his country as he was posthumously awarded the military cross for his bravery on the front.

6. Fritz Walter

For anyone who thinks football’s a waste of time, tell them it saved this man’s life. Walter was enjoying a brilliant career with Kaiserslautern in the Bundesliga before having been conscripted to join the Nazi forces in 1942, where the forward was to fight for Germany.

However near the end of the war, he ended up being a POW after being captured by Hungarian soldiers. He wowed the guards with his exceptional skill but the time then came for him to be moved to another camp in the Soviet Union, where life expectancy was just 5 years and the guards would be more brutal.

However a football-loving Hungarian guard intervened at the last second and saved his life by aiding him in getting him out of the transfer to the Union and thus being fortuitously released from prison.

On his return to football, he restarted his career with Kaiserslautern and he retired from them in 1959 having scored a mind-boggling 380 goals in 411 appearances. Walter also won the German championship twice with his hometown club.  He also captained West Germany to their first World Cup victory in 1954, ironically over Hungary, the same nation where the guards came from who let him free.

7. Harry Goslin

A folklore legend for Bolton Wanderers, Goslin was also a sensational patriot to his country when he gave his life to the Allies during the Second World War. On turning professional in 1930, he joined the northern club for just £25 and he enjoyed nine years with the club scoring 23 goals in 306 appearances despite playing as a defender all his life. Before war broke out in 1939, he announced Bolton’s entire team would be joining the army.

When it did, Goslin led his team-mates in the fight against the Germans and their allies.  Within three years, his leadership qualities on the pitch transferred onto the battle field as he became sergeant in 1942. He also played a pivotal role in the withdrawal of troops from Dunkirk in that same year. However while traversing through Italy, he was seriously wounded by a mortar explosion under a tree. He bravely battled to live on four days after suffering the injury but lost his life on 18th December 1943.

8. Fred Griffiths

This Welsh goalkeeper enjoyed a long and varied career having been on the books of 12 clubs as well as earning 2 caps for his country. Having the honour of playing for big London clubs such as Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, he was renowned for being a reliable man to have between the sticks but unfortunately this never translated into any major trophies.

After his retirement, he spent his time training local teams near his home in Presteigne, Wales. And despite being one year above the conscription age, (41 was the conscription age at the time) he felt compelled to fight for his country’s future when he enlisted with the British army in 1915.

He became sergeant within his rank, the 15th Battalion of Sherwood Foresters, before dying at the Battle of Passchendaele in 1917 at the age of 44.

9. Lev Yashin

Widely regarded as the best goalkeeper all-time, Yashin made his name Dynamo Moscow and the old Soviet Union during a trophy-laden 20 year career with each team. At just 12 years of age, in 1941, he began helping the Soviet Union in the only way he could in the war effort. Too young to fight on the front, the teenager went to work in the factories manufacturing arms, vehicle parts and more.

Yashin was finally able to begin his professional footballing career as a 21-year-old with Dynamo Msocow in 1950. With them he won the Soviet Top League 5 times and the Soviet Cup 3 times. He also helped him national team to continental glory by winning the 1964 European Championship with them as well capturing gold at the Olympics.

He made 324 appearances at club level, 78 at international level and was known as the ”Black Spider” around the world due to his amazing ability to save virtually goal-bound shots. His death came prematurely in 1990 when during relatively simple surgery on his knee went wrong and he passed away due to complications.

10. Ferenc Puskas

The Real Madrid and Hungary legend was remembered as a goalscoring phenomenon during his footballing career. However due to Hungarian law, he was conscripted to join their army and although never participating in infantry work, he rose through the ranks to become major. It was a combination of his rank and his footballing prowess while playing in the armed forces that earned him his lifelong nickname ”The Galloping Major.”

Puskas is revered around the world for scoring an incredible 157 goals in just 182 appearances for Los Blancos, where he additionally won 4 Pichichi awards during his Spanish stay. And he also netted 84 strikes in 85 games for the Hungarian national team in a truly remarkable playing career.

Having taken various coaching positions ranging from North America, Asia, Europe and even Australia, he briefly coached his nation during a four game spell. Puskas died on 17th November 2006 at the age of 79.

11. Ted Drake

The diminutive English striker’s playing career began with Southampton but blossomed with Arsenal during his 14 years in football. Scoring a handsome sum of 47 goals in 71 games for the Saints, he captured the eye of the Londoners, who signed the forward in 1934. He scored 124 goals in 167 games while at Highbury, with his finest game coming against Aston Villa. Drake netted 7 times in that single match, which is a record that still stands today in England’s top flight.

As well as winning two First Division titles with the north London side, he added a FA Cup medal to his collection. After periods in management at the helm of Hendon and Reading, he took charge of Chelsea Football club and guided them to their first ever championship in 1956. The end of his time at Arsenal was severely disrupted due to his participation with the Royal Air Force which restricted him to a handful of games during the war years. His playing career was prematurely ended in 1945 due to a spinal injury.

12. Stan Mortenson

Although this particular striker managed to only garner one trophy in his 21 year career, he was the man who led his country during a very difficult post-war era as well as being ridiculously lucky to have been able to play the game once you learn his story. Before he became the prolific striker that he is famous for, he began his wartime efforts in 1939 as a wireless operator.

Mortenson was involved in a disastrous air crash that same year when every single passenger onboard was killed except Stan. However even despite the injuries he sustained, he managed to carve himself a career out of professional football in the post-war era. Stints at Southport, Bath City and Lancaster City followed a golden spell that he enjoyed with Blackpool.

He scored 197 goals in 317 games for the side in a 14 year period (the first four of those being slightly disrupted by war commitments.) He also netted a remarkable 23 goals in 25 appearance for England as he helped put a smile back on his nation’s face after a long, depressing war.

13. Willie Thornton

Considered to be one of the greatest Scottish players of all time, Thornton was a prolific striker for Rangers during his 18 year career at the club, which book-ended his involvement in World War II. Debuting for the Glaswegian giants in 1936 at just 16 years of age, the striker enjoyed adulation from fans for his lethal touch in front of goal.  However his fledgling career was brought to a temporary end in 1939 due to outbreak of the war.

He joined the Scottish Horse regiment and as a result of his “acts of gallantry and devotion to duty under fire,” he was awarded a Military Medal for helping to defeat Germany on the battlefield. By the time of his retirement in 1954, he was well-known throughout Britain and he finished his career with 138 goals in a mere 219 appearances. He then became a manager of Dundee United and Partick Thistle for 5 and 9 years respectively where he had modest success.

14. Wilf Mannion

”The Golden Boy” as he was known as in his native Middlesbrough due to his streak of blond hair, endured a mixed time on Teeside but nothing negative can be said about his commitment to the British cause during the Second World War.  The inside forward played more than 350 times for Boro, scoring 99 times in his long career there but went on strike and retired in a bid to finally leave the club.

Although the reasons for his discontent are unknown, his dedication while playing was second to none, as he was with England, netting 11 times in his 26 appearances for his nation. He joined the war effort in 1940 and he was a key solider in the Siege of Sicily that occurred in 1943. Shortly after that he was allowed to return home and continue his footballing career. After the war, he joined Hull City and Cambridge United and perhaps his finest moment was being a member of the English squad for the 1950 World Cup in a career particularly special due to it’s amazing 24 year longevity.

15. Frank Buckley

Buckley took a more unusual route as he created a unique career in the game. Having joined the army as a teenager, he left by the time he was 20 in order to forge a football life for himself. He played for Manchester United, Manchester City and Aston Villa before the outbreak of World War I. He was commander of the Football Battalion for a large of the war and thanks to his previous stint in the armed forces, he rose through the ranks rapidly and eventually became a major.

However he was badly injured in the Battle of the Somme and returned to restart his football career. With the war finished, he managed many football clubs including Leeds United where he introduced the legendary Jack Charlton to his first taste of professional action. Overall, he spent nearly 50 years in his long and distinguished life in football.

16. William Angus

The word hero was conjured up exactly for this incredible man. With his footballing career cut short due to the declaration of war in Europe in 1914, Angus wasted no time in signing up and he was immediately mobilised out to the action. Before his war efforts, he played once for Celtic but left them for lack of first team opportunities. He was the captain Wilshaw Thistle when war was announced and within weeks, he had joined the 8th Royal Scots regiment.

His finest hour came a year after joining when he saw a comrade lying in a trench within the range of their enemies. Angus fearlessly went to save his fellow soldier and received 40 wounds for his courageous act, losing his left eye and part of his foot being his most serious injuries. Two months later as he was recovering, he was awarded the Victoria Cross, the highest award possible for a British solider.

17. Bernard Vann

Another man who was equally brave in the face of danger, Vann was also a recipient of the prestigious Victoria Cross for his valiant accomplishments while defending his nation. His football career was all over by 1907 at the tender age of 20 but he made appearances for Burton United and Derby County in his brief time on the football field. He then ordained to become a minister from the famous-named Jesus College but his chaplaincy was cut short due to be called upon for the war effort.

Having become a Lieutenant General, he earned his Victoria Cross by leading his subordinate troops into the face of death as his leadership qualities shone through impeccably. Rushing up to the line of fire, he surprised several German soldiers and disarmed three of them as he led his regiment on a crucial advance on enemy territory. However Vann missed the end of the war by a mere 4 weeks as he was shot by a sniper rifle in France on 3rd October 1918.

18. Billy Gerrish

William ”Billy” Gerrish was yet another tragic story which began on the football field and ended when he was fighting the front. An extremely promising young striker for Aston Villa, he scored on his debut against Arsenal and added to that with an even more impressive achievement by claiming a hat-trick against Chelsea. In his first season with the club, he helped them to win the First Division.

However he failed to live up to his full potential when World War I broke out and he was to join the British army. Having enlisted in the Footballers Battaltion Middlesex regiment, he lasted less than two years abroad. He was killed on 8th August 1916. In all, there were 40 other Aston Villa players who died as a result of their participation in that war, one of the highest of all the clubs in Britain.

19. Charlie Buchan

This beanpole striker was another goalscoring phenomenon who had his magnificent career due to his country’s involvement in keeping the peace abroad. Despite missing a fair chunk of his 14 years on the books at Sunderland, he racked up an impressive 209 goals in 370 appearances with the Black Cats.

He enlisted in the war effort as soon as it began in 1914 and by the time of Britain’s victory in 1918, he had been promoted to second lieutenant in the Sherwood Foresters regiment. He was also a recipient of the Military Medal. On his return to football, he rejoined Sunderland until 1925 when he transferred to Arsenal.

With them, he was equally prolific, scoring 49 times during the 102 games that he donned the famous red shirt. He wrote one of the first football manual’s, was a distinguished journalist and commentated on matches for the BBC for the remainder of his life up until his peaceful death in 1960.

20. Nikita Simonyan

This legendary Russian football man was too young to actively take part in World War II. However when the soldiers rolled into his town, he helped ease the pressure and stress of war life by organising football matches. The military personnel thoroughly enjoyed these breaks from the endless killings and Simonyan then realised football would become a focal point for the remainder of his life.

He has become one of the most successful Russian footballers of all-time by winning the golden boot in the Soviet Top League on three occasions.  He won the Soviet Top League seven times in total as a player and manager of clubs as well as on the victorious side of the Soviet Cup six times. His career reached its pinnacle when he was part of the Soviet Union team which won the 1956 Olympic gold medal in football. And just earlier this year, his efforts of nullifying tension between Russians and Armenians were rewarded by the President of Armenia during a ceremony.

You can contribute to this list in the comments below or by emailing us. If you like this list, you will find more football lists here.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The 1960s just might be football’s golden decade. George Best, Garrincha, Pele in his prime and much much more. Recently on the Total Soccer Show podcast, we picked our starting XI from the 1960s. None of of us were alive back then, but thanks to television, YouTube and brilliant books like Jonathan Wilson’s Inverting the Pyramid, we were able to weigh the various options at each position and argue out the perfect starting XI to represent 10 of the most glorious years in the history of the beautiful game.

Play/Download the show

Listen to the show to hear how we arrived at our unbeatable lineup, or read about the starting XI below:

Goalkeeper: Lev Yashin
Dynamo Moscow and Russia
Who else? Gordon Banks might have won the World Cup, but Yashin is still talked about as probably the greatest goalkeeper of all time. “The Black Spider” wore leather gloves and a cloth cap, but he invented modern goalkeeping by yelling at his defenders to get them organized and coming out of his box to use his feet as the first sweeper-keeper. Still need convincing? Yashin apparently made over 150 penalty saves in his career.

Right back: Djalma Santos
Palmeiras and Brazil
The right back spot was a choice between two Brazilans. Though Carlos Alberto Torres would captain the 1970 World Cup-winning team, Santos was chosen for both the ’62 and ’66 tournaments, and provided the assist for Vava in the 1962 World Cup final by crossing a high ball into the glare of the sun. Not as adventurous as later Brazilian right backs (including Carlos Alberto) but gets the nod for defensive solidity. And a scary photo.

Left back: Giacinto Facchetti
Inter and Italy
The 6′ 3″ Facchetti played left back in the catenaccio-loving La Grande Inter team of the ’60s, which won multiple Italian titles and back-to-back European Cups. But though he could definitely defend, Facchetti was actually the key to Inter’s killer defence to attack transitions. Inter played a sweeper, two marking centre back, and a right back, but Facchetti had the entire left flank to himself and would bomb forward, cut inside and shoot with his right foot, basically inventing the European attacking fullback.

Centre back: Bobby Moore
West Ham and England
As the Total Soccer Show‘s sole Englishman, I thought I’d be the only one selecting England’s 1966 World Cup-winning captain. Turns out I wasn’t. Moore’s composed defending is famous worldwide, because very few have made relieving opponents of the ball look so simple and then strolling up field with it look so easy. Moore had a great run in the mid-’60s, winning the FA Cup in ’64, the European Cup Winners Cup (bring it back!) in ’65 and then the World Cup in ’66. That, plus England have not had a defender who can successfully pass the ball out of the back since.

Centre back: Bill McNeill
Celtic and Scotland
The Lisbon Lions had to be represented here, so Celtics’s 1967 European Cup-winning captain would be the stopper in our lineup. Billy McNeill, or “Cesar” to Celtic fans, was a hard man, a leader and a never let you down defender, meeting every high ball with his head, intercepting every pass and stopping every attacker in his tracks by getting a well timed foot-in. McNeill and Bobby Moore will have to argue over the captain’s armband in this team, but either man will do a fine job.

Box-to-box midfielder: Josef Masopust
Dukla Prague and Czechoslovakia
There isn’t a lot of footage of Masopust, so his selection is based on what we’ve read and the very little YouTube we’ve seen. But from everything we’ve heard and read, Masopust could defend and attack, would happily cover the length of the field several times over, and was instrumental in leading Czechoslovakia all the way the 1962 World Cup final. We also felt that any Team of the ’60s should represent the incredible talent of the Soviet nations in that decade.

Attacking midfielder: Bobby Charlton
Manchester United and England
Imagine Frank Lampard in his prime. Now imagine him about five times better at absolutely everything. Now give him a silly haircut. That’s Bobby Charlton, who could pick up the ball from anywhere, carry it forward at pace by dribbling with either foot, and then unleash an powerful, laser-guided strike into the top corner, again with either foot. And that’s how Bobby Charlton is England’s all-time top scorer despite not actually being a striker.

Right wing: Garrincha
Botafogo and Brazil
“The Joy of the People” was a terrible, terrible professional footballer. Fond of a drink and unable to absorb any tactical information—legend has it he was allowed to play table tennis while the rest of the team talked tactics. But it didn’t matter. Because the bendy-legged winger (bendy-legged due to childhood polio) literally went past fullbacks for fun. So much so, he’d sometimes wait and let them recover, just so he could beat them again. Brazil never lost a game when fielding Pele and Garrincha, so any respectable Team of the ’60s should do the same.

Left wing: George Best
Manchester United and Northern Ireland
We know, Best was mostly a right winger and shouldn’t be pushed out to the left. But we couldn’t have a team of the ’60s without Garrincha and we couldn’t have a team of the ’60s without the magician that was George Best. So we compromised. Best’s career tailed off in the ’70s, but the ’60s were Best’s decade: the fame, the female company and—most importantly for this list—the football. Possibly the best way to describe Best going forward with the ball is “justified arrogance”, which is what gave him license to do things no one else thought of doing, like playing one-twos off opposition defender’s shins.

Support striker: Pele
Santos and Brazil
You may have heard of him. Pele introduced himself to the world as a teenage sensation in 1958 and reached apotheosis at the 1970 World Cup, but “O Rei” actually did all his best work inbetween, in the 1960s. Pele won the Copa Libertadores and Intercontintental Cup with the legendary 1962 Santos team, won the ’62 World Cup with Brazil and was considered so dangerous in the ’66 World Cup that the only solution for Portugal was to kick him, hard, until he left the field injured. Want to hear about Pele the player? They key is not to think of him as just a striker, because he could also drop deep and create. But it’s impossible to pick one attribute because Pele could do it all, and he did it best in the 1960s.

Striker: Eusebio
Benfica and Portugal
Only a little fella’, but 5′ 9″ Eusebio was built like a bulldozer. You could not muscle him off the ball. Add to that a fine touch, a nose for goal and the only shot in the world that could rival Bobby Charlton’s for power and accuracy (would love to see a long distance shootout between those two!) and it’s crystal clear why Eusebio was a European Cup-winner with Benfica in 1962 and the top scorer at the 1966 World Cup with nine goals. His partnership with Pele—supplied by Garrincha and George Best—wouldn’t just be the greatest attacking lineup of the ’60s, it might be the greatest, and most entertaining, of all time.

Find out more about these players, and the players that just missed out: Play/Download MP3.
Like what you hear? Subscribe to the Total Soccer Show podcast via iTunes or subscribe via RSS.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Messrs. Gold and Sullivan have stumbled from bad decision to ludicrous decision since taking over at West Ham but they may well have struck gold with the appointment of Big Sam. The quickest form of transport is through the sky and that’s why Allardyce’s long ball football could provide the Hammers with an instant return to the topflight.

Last season was a truly catastrophic campaign for the Hammers. From the outside looking in, a team of talented players ended up getting relegated due to over-inflated egos and a terrible lifeless gaffer. Grant somehow managed to cling on to his job in January when it was evident change was needed. It proved to be a costly mistake by Gold and Sullivan to show faith in the Israeli and not install a manager such as Allardyce with a proven reputation for keeping teams out of the relegation dogfight.

The appointment of Big Sam may have happened 6 months too late but Gold and Sullivan have found an experienced manager capable of ensuring West Ham’s bubble does not burst. It may not be pretty on the eye but the 57 year old’s tried and tested tactics do seem to get results.

Just look at what happened when he left Blackburn. Blackburn were 7^th in the league when the new Indian owners decided they wanted to try and turn Blackburn into Barcelona and Allardyce was shown the door. By the time the season ended the club had narrowly avoided relegation on the last day of the season. The terrible work of Steve Kean has made Allardyce look like a tactician of the highest calibre.

Not even the Football Writer's Player of the Year could stop West Ham going down.

With Allardyce in charge West Ham should have more than enough to return to top flight at the first time of asking. Although a lot will depend on the clubs capability to hold on to their better players and if they leave, who is brought in to replace them.

Big Sam will look towards experience and has already talked of improving the squads ‘physical edge’. In other words a 6 foot 6 centre half will be arriving any time soon alongside a battering ram of a centre forward.

Great running track for Big Sam to make perfect use of with long throws.

Gold and Sullivan’s own ego trip will be a pain in the neck for Allardyce throughout his tenure at Upton Park, but that will be nothing like the actual pain in the neck the Hammers faithful will encounter as they look skyward, desperately trying to locate the ball as it plummets down from outer space after another Matthew Upson hoof.

The imminent move to the Olympic Stadium after the London 2012 Olympics could prove to be the making of West Ham. Not only will they have a better stadium to attract a higher quality of player, more fans and possibly an Arab sheikh with billions to spend but Big Sam will be able to utilise the running track for some superb long throw tactics. Don’t know about you but I can’t wait for it…

Daryn MacRae writes on Stay On Your Feet.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Scott Parker’s admission that he wants to leave West Ham for the Premier League will have piqued the interest of many top clubs. The three sides thought to be heading the queue are Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham, so here are the cases for and against the England midfielder joining each of them.

Arsenal

The case for: Parker is the tenacious yet technically able footballer Arsenal are crying out for. He has plenty of Premier League experience, meaning he would not need the period of adjustment many of Wenger’s foreign signings have required. At 30 years of age, he would bring considerable experience to a relatively young side. Parker is also forging a promising footballing relationship with Jack Wilshere in the national side, and if they were to play beside each other for club and country, it could bring the best out of both. Wenger would also be able to use Parker as a mentor for Wilshere, who is still maturing both on and off the field. Add to this that Parker is a leader (something which the Gunners sometimes seem to lack), and he becomes an ever more appealing option . Arsenal are the sole of the three sides which offers the chance of Champions League football next year, which Parker would relish. Furthermore, moving to another London club would mean no need for relocation and being able to stay in the city where he has spent the majority of his career to date.

The case against: Signing Parker would be a marked departure from Wenger’s usual transfer policy. Many would argue change is necessary, but it is yet to be seen whether Wenger would be willing to sign a player in his thirties. Arsenal may be more concerned with shoring up their patchy defence than their midfield, and if West Ham’s asking price is high, they may elect to use their funds elsewhere. Money may not be an issue for Parker, but considering Arsenal’s wage policy, he would almost definitely be able to command a higher wage at Liverpool or Spurs.

Liverpool

The case for: It is thought that Kenny Dalglish will ship out a fair few players this summer, and with midfielders Christian Poulsen and Joe Cole likely to be amongst them, reinforcements may well be sought. Although Lucas Leiva enjoyed a good season this year, his performances are sometimes erratic, and with Jonjo Shelvey and Jay Spearing still learning their trade, Parker would provide consistency. Parker could also prove the talismanic figure Liverpool sometimes lack when Steven Gerrard is missing. Parker would also be a steadying influence on the crop of young talent establishing themselves in the first team squad at Anfield. Dalglish is a fan of buying British talent where possible, and the Kop would certainly take to Parker’s combative style. Liverpool are a club with rich history who are on the up, and to play for them under an inspirational manager in Dalglish, would be attractive for any player.

The case against: Liverpool are the only of the three clubs not to be based in London, and the major upheaval of moving may be unattractive to a player whose roots are firmly in the capital. They are also the only of the three clubs not to be playing European football this year, though the propsects of achieving it in subsequent years are very good. Liverpool are also debatably the club that need him the least of the three, boasting reasonable strength in depth in central midfield, and so may spend their kitty on other areas of the team.

Tottenham

The case for: Harry Redknapp is well known to be an admirer of Parker’s abilities as a footballer, and has been the most public of the three managers in his praise of both the midfielder’s physical and mental attributes, making the likelihood of Harry bidding for Parker very high. With Wilson Palacios increasingly being linked with a move away from the club, Parker would be a timely addition, providing the tenacity that Palacios gives whilst being good enough on the ball to fit into a stylish team. As with Arsenal, no major relocation would be required should he move to White Hart Lane, and like Arsenal, Spurs will feature in European football this year. Although Spurs are only in the Europa League, to play European football this year will be tempting for a player who is trying to establish himself in the England team.

The case against: Of the three clubs, Tottenham are the least fancied to get into the top four next year, and playing in the Champions League soon might be an opportunity Parker would be more likely to get elsewhere. Spurs may also need to sell before they can buy, which could lead to complications. There are also rumours that West Ham may not want to do business with Tottenham given the tension between the two over the Olympic Stadium, though this seems improbable.

Taking all of this into account, it appears that Liverpool is the least likely destination of the three for Scott Parker. They need him the least, and the geography of the move would be a sizeable deterrent. Arsenal certainly seem the most attractive proposition, and they are the team that most require a player like Parker,  but with Harry Redknapp being such an admirer, and with Liverpool’s prestige, don’t rule any of these clubs out. No matter who wins the tussle for his signature, you can be sure that Scott Parker will be playing top flight football next year.

You can follow Will on Twitter: @willmcbean

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

There was once a time when this Croydon-born, Sierra Leone raised central midfield dynamo was captaining West Ham United into the FA Cup final of 2006 to face the might of Liverpool. Reo-Coker, a former England under-21 captain, was the lynchpin in a midfield containing talents such as Yossi Benayoun and Matthew Etherington, yet Reo-Coker still stood out as the main force in the West Ham side. His inspirational drive, robust tackling and incredible desire to chase down his opposing midfield counterpart placed him on the verge of the England World Cup team to travel to Germany for the 2006 FIFA World Cup.

Fast forward five years down the line and Reo-Coker finds himself on the free agency pile after just being released from Aston Villa. The Villans paid £8.5 million in the summer of 2007 for the midfielder and in the beginning, the fee seemed worthwhile. Reo-Coker began his career at Villa Park in a sparse central midfield role, fighting for a place alongside Stilyan Petrov and club captain Gareth Barry, and his perseverance was granted by his ability to not only play in the middle of the park, but also at right back or right midfield. After Barry’s departure the summer after Reo-Coker’s arrival, the midfielder took over the captaincy for the 2009 Peace Cup, which Villa subsequently won. This season was the troublesome one for Reo-Coker and the season that sparked his sudden downfall in appearances and recognition.

A training ground bust-up just short of a month into the season with then manager Martin O’Neill saw Reo-Coker dropped for the following game against Portsmouth and the fall-out from this argument was a lack of regular playing time for the 27 year old and he fell heavily out of favour with O’Neill at Villa Park. Reo-Coker spent the next two seasons flitting in and out of the first team, but after the departure of O’Neill from Villa Park, the midfielder found his feet again and was given another chance by new manager Gerard Houllier. His performances have been a bright light in a dark season at Villa Park, but his reluctance to accept the new terms laid at his feet by the Aston Villa board have consequently resulted in his release from the Midlands side before the start of this upcoming season.

What has happened to Reo-Coker? Despite his mini-revival towards the latter end of this season, Reo-Coker still isn’t at the level he was at whilst at the beginning of his Aston Villa career. When he broke onto the scene at Wimbledon as a fresh faced 18 year old, his performances resulted in captaincy for the Dons and resulted in the move to East London and West Ham in the 2004-05 season, where he was again given the captaincy. Reo-Coker is evidently seen as a natural leader, being captain at all three of his professional clubs to date at some point, and his talent and drive were inescapable at West Ham. It seems that somewhere along the way, Reo-Coker has lost his confidence of such. He is nowhere near at the ability to displace any of the current crop of England midfielders and that’s a free-fall from a player who was bursting down the door of the England set-up at the 2006 World Cup.

Maybe a move to another club will re-ignite the career of Reo-Coker, but where could he possibly go to that isn’t a step-down from Aston Villa? The ninth placed finish for the Villans means that surely the 27 year old will move to a top ten Premiership side.

The top four will hold no interest in Reo-Coker and with Tottenham and Liverpool eyes firmly fixated on either Charlie Adam or Scott Parker, there will be no move there. Everton and Fulham could be possible choices, but with such a tight wage and transfer budget at Goodison Park and the ability of Leon Osman, Mikel Arteta and Jack Rodwell in the centre of the park, that does not seem a viable option.

Fulham could be the move for Reo-Coker. It moves him back down into London and the ambition of current manager Mark Hughes could help Reo-Coker get his footballing brain back into gear and make further impressive strides, if his own beliefs of making the England World Cup 2012 squad are to be realised. It’s time for Reo-Coker to re-discover the mercurial form he held back in the mid-00′s and show that he really is a force to be reckoned with in the Premier League.

His form has been average, but for a player of his considerable talent levels, he should be expected to hold down a regular position and be able to stake his own place along some of the top Premier League central midfielders.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

This weekend, three of Europe’s more famous clubs – Sampdoria, Frankfurt and West Ham – were condemned to the second divisions of their respective countries. Perhaps the smallest reverberations came with West Ham’s demotion: the Hammers struggled all season long under a hangdog, lame-dog manager and if the same the lack of spirit shown by several senior West Ham figures is reproduced next year, it could indicate a lengthy stay for the club in the second tier. Popular expectation is that the squad will be gutted as several key players depart: Football Writers’ Association Player of the Year Scott Parker, the out of contract Matthew Upson and goalkeeper Robert Green are likely to lead the exodus.

But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it’s lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one – here’s a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.

1. Sign a manager with experience and patience

Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months’ worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club’s youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.

Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he’d develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren.

2. Expunge the deadwood

While Pablo Barrera hasn’t lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant’s transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT’s.

As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn’t the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.

3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies

It’s been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board’s first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about “the West Ham way” and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results – Allardyce, anyone? – a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.

4. Light a fire under the forwards

While Cole’s struggled through a fair-to-poor season and appears unlikely to be at Upton Park next year, if he is he could dominate the Championship. The same applies to Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they’ll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he’s not sold, could also dominate in English football’s lower reaches. Ba’s seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.  If Danny Graham can  muster 23 goals playing at up-tempo Watford, then a possible combination of Ba, Cole and Sears should combine for forty.

5. Get value for exiting players

Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he’ll go. He’ll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways – but is likely to find it’s way either into reducing the club’s remarkable debt or investment in the squad. All of Ba, Tomkins and Cole will have suitors as well.  The secret to success – and admittedly this is easier said than done – is to pry top-tier divisional talent away from mid-table Championship squads.  Stick to this principle and they’re on the right track.  Sort of.  The Guardian has penned an interesting piece on this very subject.

6. Free the club’s youth

All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club’s youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.

The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation.  While this crop of youngsters aren’t currently Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good – the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of Hammers’ youth.

For more commentary and analysis, shoot across to Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

It seems that the Championship Playoff finals are often won by the team who is playing best at the end of the season. Last year, Ian Holloway masterminded a Blackpool offensive (cough) juggernaut to promotion behind Charlie Adam and against a Cardiff side who’ve developed the nasty reputation of being playoff chokers. This year, the popular picks from pundits have gone to anyone but the Bluebirds. But is there really a trend to which clubs are most successful come playoff time?

Examining table below, we can draw several assumptions. Firstly, it’s bad luck to finish fourth in the table after the regular season (another reason Cardiff City fans are cursing). Not once has a team who finished fourth won through to English football’s Big Dance.

Secondly, it’s easy to see that when a club finishes higher in the table (as in Watford, Derby County and Hull City from 2006-08), recent league form usually plays less of a part their playoff success – the two worst-performed teams over the last ten league games over the past ten years both achieved playoff success from third place. This means that the club was either safely in the playoffs or had dropped by dint of poor form from the automatic promotion places. In all three cases however, their pursuers failed to take advantage of poor form (cf. Watford 2006 and Derby County in 2007).

Also, it’s important to realise that Goal Difference counts. Every promoted club – excepting a strange mid-noughties phenomenon involving West Ham, Watford and Derby County – had a much superior goal differential to their opponents. Given before last season’s first-half scorefest, the prior 6 Playoff Finals had ended 1-0, the ability to balance defence with attack is crucial.

So how does this year’s championship reflect these trends?

At this stage it would be easy to discount Nottingham Forest as they’ve taken the least points from their last ten league matches of any club who finishing sixth over the past decade. Their collapse – lasting from mid-February to early April – should have effectively put paid to their chances. This is also reflected in their poor goal difference. However as these are finals and – as the quote goes – “You’ve got to be in it to win it”, they can’t be considered definite first-round “outs” just because a decade of stats (not a big sample) says they should be.

Reading‘s form appears irresistible. While Swansea City have won less often, they’ve done so with greater winning margins. This could be put down to facing weaker opposition or their attacking style of play. That their stats match up quite well with Watford’s and Derby County’s is also encouraging for fans of Cyril the Swan and his men. With Cardiff’s reputation as big-game bottlers perhaps overstated but disturbing reports of late-season drinking apparently close to the mark, perhaps it’s easier to discount the Bluebirds (my favourite Football Manager team) against the Shane Long-led Royals.

Fearless Playoff Predictions: Reading over Cardiff City, Swansea City over Nottingham Forest, Dave Jones to get sacked and then Reading to steamroll back into the Premiership, leaving Cyril the Swan distraught, tired and emotional.

For more analysis and opinion, shoot across to Matthew Wood‘s blog, Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Three matches to go, and three points separate the bottom four teams in the English Premier League. All evidence points to three out of the four teams at the bottom going down (especially with Blackburn getting a vital three points last weekend), so in this article we’ll look at the remaining fixtures for the bottom four teams their chances of success.

In order of current Premier League table standings:

Blackpool (17th, 35pts, -22GD)

Blackpool are away to Tottenham on Saturday, entertain top 10 team Bolton next and are away to Manchester United in their final game of the season. Looking at how the title race is going down to the wire, if United go into the game defending their unbeaten home record in the league, or if they need to win the game for the title, you can forget Blackpool’s chances there (the Castrol EPL Match Predictor gives Blackpool a 4% chance of winning the game, with a 3-0 home win the most likely result).

There are doubts in some quarters whether Tottenham want to play in the Europa League next season or whether they consider it a distraction and would be happier finishing 6th and having a go at the Champions League spots next season without European distractions. It’s food for thought for another article, but on paper (and on form) Blackpool are unlikely to get a win here, and they’d be extremely lucky to get a point.

That leaves Blackpool with only the Bolton game to get a result from. Currently Blackpool are 39% to win that game and 63% to avoid defeat. However, their recent form doesn’t give much hope, but if there was ever a game they needed to win it would be this one.

Predicted points: 38.

Wigan (18th, 35pts, -23GD)

Wigan are away to Aston Villa in a game that they are likely to get at least a point out of.

The second game is Wigan v West Ham, a true relegation six-pointer, and although we’ll be previewing this game next week it’s safe to say that predicting that result is a foolish task. Wigan’s recent form does give them the edge, and personally I see them getting the three points there.

The final game is away to Stoke. By this point Wigan might be completely safe or still struggling for points. In any case I think Stoke’s gameplan might be too disruptive for Wigan to handle and I would give Stoke a win here.

Predicted points: 39.

Wolves (19th, 34pts, -23GD)

Wolves host West Brom this weekend, a match that West Brom are predicted to win at 38% (with Wolves win % at 37). Personally I think Mick McCarthy has the experience to get his players motivated enough to win this fixture but they’ve missed so many chances this season. Still, Wolves to edge this game.

The next game sees Wolves away to Sunderland, whose last home game was a shock 3-0 defeat to Fulham. Sunderland are just about safe from relegation but are in woeful form, but I don’t see Wolves getting a win here, a point might be there for the taking though.

The final game has Wolves hosting Blackburn. A win for Wolves? Again I wouldn’t be surprised but they’ve disappointed so often this season that it’s difficult to see a win, at best a point here.

Predicted points: 39.

West Ham (20th, 32pts, -23GD)

West Ham are home to Blackburn this weekend, a game they’re predicted to win (at 44%). They’re in the worst position of the bottom four teams and barring a miracle (i.e. winning all three games), they’re not likely to survive the drop. Will they beat Blackburn? They just might, but if they do, Blackburn are unlikely to be back into the relegation mix (unless they themselves lose all three of their games with West Ham winning all three). And for that to happen, Wolves would need to beat Blackburn (both teams’ final game of the season).

The next game for the Hammers is the six-pointer against Wigan. I don’t see them winning this game, as stated above.

The final game is at home to Sunderland. I see them beating Sunderland, who’ve been woeful, but would it be enough?

Predicted points: 38.

Soccerlens Predictions

From the predictions above, it looks like West Ham and Blackpool will be relegated after finishing on 38 points each, and one of Wigan and Wolves going down, depending on goal-difference. I’m picking Wigan to stay up.

Castrol Predictions

Here’s a look at the end of season Castrol EPL Predictions:

Although my points totals predictions are 1 more for each of the four clubs, the Castrol Predictions effectively match my predictions for the relegation battle.

Let us know your thoughts on which team out of these will survive till next season.

All match percentages data was taken from the Castrol EPL Match Predictor. Learn more about the Castrol EPL Predictor, and see this week’s weekend predictions.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The English Premier League enters a pivotal phase this weekend, with several matches that could decide the fate of the title, the European place(s) and relegation spots in the next 4 days (if you include Tuesday’s match between Manchester City and Tottenham).

Last weekend we looked at the Castrol EPL Predictor and used it to predict results for all 10 Premier Leagues from last weekend. Let’s look at how the Castrol EPL Predictor fared:

Last Weekend’s Results

Actual match results followed by Castrol EPL Predictions in brackets)

Wigan 1-1 Everton (Everton win at 51%)
West Brom 2-1 Aston Villa (West Brom win at 43%)
Sunderland 0-3 Fulham (Sunderland win at 38%)
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (Chelsea win at 75%)
Blackpool 0-0 Stoke (Blackpool win at 44%)
Blackburn 1-0 Bolton (Blackburn win at 51%)
Manchester City 2-1 West Ham (Man City win at 61%)
Liverpool 3-0 Newcastle United (Liverpool win at 65%)
Birmingham 1-1 Wolves (Birmingham win at 51%)
Arsenal 1-0 Manchester United (Arsenal win at 40%)

There’s two ways to look at this: one is look at absolute result predictions – i.e. how many results did the Castrol Predictor get right – 6 out of 10. The other way to look at is to consider that these predictions are actually percentages assigned to each outcome (win, draw, loss), and then look at how the actual results stacked up against the Castrol EPL Predictor’s percentages.

For example: Arsenal v Manchester United only had a 34% chance of United winning, or 66% chance of United not winning.

Applying this to the incorrect results from the first method, we see:

Wigan 1-1 Everton (Wigan to not lose at 49%)
Sunderland 0-3 Fulham (Sunderland to not lose at 66%)
Blackpool 0-0 Stoke (Blackpool to not lose at 69%)
Birmingham 1-1 Wolves (Birmingham to not lose at 78%)

In two results (Blackpool and Birmingham, the prediction was highly accurate. In one result (Wigan v Everton), the prediction was accurate but it was an evenly balanced spread with all three results equally likely. In the fourth result, Sunderland v Fulham, the prediction was way off the actual result, and this is reflected in the fact that Fulham’s away win to Sunderland came as the biggest shock of the weekend results.

So, if you look at these predictions strictly in terms of win percentages, the Castrol EPL Predictor got 6 out of 10 predictions correct.

If you look at these predictions in terms of overall percentages and the likelihood of home teams not losing, the Castrol EPL Predictor got 8 out of 10 predictions correct, with one call one the line and the last one a surprise result.

Castrol Weekend Predictions

This weekend’s matches as predicted by Castrol EPL Predictor:

Talking Points:

Premier League Final Standings Predictions

Here’s a look at the end-of-season Premier League table as predicted by Castrol:

Talking Points:

We’ll be following up with match previews for the big games this weekend – United v Chelsea, Everton v City, plus the relegation battle and the race for 5th place between Tottenham and Liverpool.

Make sure you look at the Castrol EPL Match Predictor in more detail as it’s an excellent statistical tool for predicting matchups between two Premier League teams as well as our previous Castrol EPL Predictor article for an explanation of how the Castrol EPL Predictions work.

Premier League Betting

And if you’re a betting man, I recommend using our free £25 bet to back Castrol’s predicted results on Betfair. 6 out of 10 (or 8 out of 10 if you bet on a team not losing) is a good set of results to put ‘free’ money on (and you’ll be in with a shot at winning an extra £100).

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The relegation battle in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. As the season progresses and Manchester United seemingly stumbling towards the title pursued by an equally reeling competition, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing are of the English top flight. This season sees the most intense dogfight to avoid the drop for many years.

It seems no-one in the bottom half of the table is immune, let alone safe. Before the weekend’s win against a Wigan outfit seeminly every bit mid-table Championship calibre, Sunderland had dropped like an action-movie elevator from potential European combatant to also-ran. Blackpool‘s astonishing start to the season came undone at exactly the same time as Charlie Adam’s Liverpool move was rejected. West Ham remain as consistent as the March weather. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no “certainties” for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland’s record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. This year, no such luck: the bottom nine clubs sit within one “six-pointer” of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous decade, the only real precedents for such a tight battle was in 2003, 2007 and 2008, where – aside from the three in the relegation zone – five other clubs finished within six points of the drop. In all cases, however, one club was cut adrift much earlier in the season: in 2003 it was Sunderland, 2007 Watford and 2008 the hapless Derby County. Generally (60% over the last ten years), one club is mathematically relegated much sooner in the season than their compatriots. With only four (or five) matches remaining in this EPL season, there is no such bunny.

As always, the complicating factor in the relegation battle is Goal Difference. Goal difference has been known to be crucial – just ask Fulham fans, who in 2008 saw their club survive thanks only to a GD 3 superior to that of relegated Reading’s. Interestingly, while it’s mentioned often and loudly, that’s one of only two times since the turn of the twenty-first century that a club has avoided relegation by virtue of goal difference. The other was the year before, when a David Unsworth penalty against his former club Sheffield United lifted the Latics out of the drop zone at the expense of the Blades.

Another trend over the decade has been that as more teams are involved in a relegation battle, a greater impact is seen in goal difference over the course of a season. For example, in the years where eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation (2003, 2007 and 2008) – or one crucial win against a fellow straggler – the average goal difference of any threatened clubs was much lower. The same is true in 2011, where nine clubs are still classified “in danger”.

Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it’s easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs increases.

Derby County are excluded because they are a statistical outlier – their season-long goal difference of -69 a whole 57% worse than any club’s during the past seven years – the next worst club in Goal Difference was 2003′s Sunderland squad, with -44. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become – with the possible exception of Ian Holloway’s Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) – Mark Hughes’ Fulham join Leeds United’s 2003 squad as the only “threatened” club in the last decade to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

It stands to reason that with an increased number of threatened clubs that average goal difference is reduced. If more clubs are involved in the Relegation battle, then that means for an even competition. An even competition means for even scores across a week-to-week basis and no matter if this Premier League has not been one of “vintage” calibre, it certainly has gone nearly unparalleled for intrigue and competition. In days past, the magic total of 40 points has been suggested to be a minimum safe distance. Only once has a club been relegated who had scored above forty points: West Ham, who were desperately unlucky to go down in 2003 with a record points tally.

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 10% of the season still to play, the 2010-11 average Goal Difference figures are going to be amongst the lowest of the past ten years. If we extrapolate the figures as they stand now, it could mean an average goal difference as low as -16.85 for all threatened clubs over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is statistically slightly (5%) more intense than than the previous most intense fight in 2008 involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton. Only this year, there’s no Derby County – there are no (relatively) easy points.

For more analysis and opinion, shoot across to Matthew Wood’s blog, Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News