With 6 games to go in the season, the race for promotion to the riches of the Premier League is hotting up.

It is seemingly a three-horse race for the two automatic promotion places on offer. Southampton and Reading are the two clubs currently in the driving seat but a strong West Ham United side are lurking close behind in third.

The race for the Play-Offs also looks set for an intriguing finish as a number of sides look to seal their place in the top 6 and be in with a chance of promotion to the “big-time.” 3rd spot looks likely to be taken by one of the top 3 but the positions of 4th, 5th and 6th are still up for grabs with Birmingham, Blackpool and Brighton currently occupying these all important play-off spots.

The teams just outside of the play-offs such as Middlesbrough, Cardiff and perhaps even Hull will be looking to string together a few good results in the last six games to ensure that they get the chance to be in the play-offs. The big question on every fans lips is who will be in the Top 6 of the Championship come the 28th April when all the teams’ fates will be decided?

1st – SOUTHAMPTON
Manager: Nigel Adkins
Played: 40 Points: 78 GD: +34
Current Form: DWWWWL

The Saints have been the frontrunners nearly all season for automatic promotion and have set the pace right from the off. Unlike other sides in the promotion mix, they have been consistent from the start and are deservedly top of the Championship with six games to go. The question is can Southampton hold their nerve for the final run-in to complete unexpected back-to-back promotions and a return to the Barclays Premier League?

Their home form this season has been extraordinary having only dropped 8 points at St. Mary’s all season. This form coupled with a number of crucial goals from star-striker and top scorer Rickie Lambert has seen the South-Coast club stay ahead of the pack at the top of the Championship.

Southampton’s remaining fixtures don’t look tough on paper as they have to play rivals Portsmouth & Coventry who are threatened by relegation and Crystal Palace & Peterborough who are sitting in mid-table with nothing to play for. But no results are set in the stone and if they underestimate such opposition, Southampton could be left red-faced. A home clash against second-placed Reading on the superstitious date of Friday 13th April will have a huge bearing on the race for automatic promotion.

Our Prediction: We think that Southampton will have enough left in the tank to see out the remainder of the campaign and be sitting in one of those two automatic promotion places come the end of April. Adkins is a firm manager who won’t allow for any complacency in the final run-in and will still expect the best from his players to ensure that the Saints achieve their aim of promotion. There is no reason why Southampton can’t continue their excellent form which they have shown all season for the crucial final six games.

Rickie Lambert's goals have been instrumental in Southampton's promotion bid

2nd – READING
Manager: Brian McDermott
Played: 40 Points: 76 GD: +24
Current Form: WDWLWW

On the 21st January after a sloppy 1-0 home defeat to Hull, the Royals sat in eighth position in the league. However, three months later and Reading are flying after a remarkable transformation which has seen them claim a phenomenal 34 points out of a possible 39. Reading’s rich vein of form is in no doubt down to the players, who really stepped up to the mark in this crucial period, but also to their manager Brian McDermott who they managed to keep hold of despite strong speculation of interest from Premier League side Wolves. The much-admired manager then signed a new contract to keep him at the Madejski until 2015 as he made a statement committing himself to the Royals.

At the start of the season, many would never have said that Reading would be in such a strong position with a matter of games remaining as many questioned whether the squad would be strong enough to claim promotion back to the top-flight. However the likes of Noel Hunt, goalkeeper Adam Federici and veteran Ian Harte have all contributed towards Reading’s surge up the table in the past few months. Last Saturday’s crucial 4-2 win at Upton Park against third-placed West Ham really emphasised their dominance and the strides that they have made in order to be in contention for automatic promotion.

Our Prediction: Reading should feel confident of winning their three remaining home games but tough away games against Southampton, Brighton & Birmingham will be decisive in determining Reading’s fate. We think it will be close between West Ham and Reading as to who can grab that all important second place but we believe that West Ham won’t be able to claw back a four point deficit after defeat to the Royals on Saturday, and that Reading will be celebrating automatic promotion. We even think that Reading could overtake Southampton and pip the Saints to the title come the 28th April.

Brian McDermott has earned the plaudits this year but can he lead Reading to a return to the Premier League?

3rd – WEST HAM UNITED
Manager: Sam Allardyce
Played: 40 Points: 72 GD: +21
Current Form: DDDDWL

After a disappointing campaign last year that concluded with West Ham being humiliatingly relegated from the Premier League, everyone associated with the club was keen to see the Hammers return to their rightful place in the top division. They managed to secure a reputable, experienced manager in Sam Allardyce and brought in the likes of Matt Taylor & Kevin Nolan in the summer and Nicky Maynard & Ricardo Vaz Te in January to ensure that the aim of automatic promotion could be achieved.

However, despite all the money being ploughed in to the club from the backing of the owners, things haven’t gone as smoothly as many expected this season for the London-based club. Despite the Hammers sitting in the top two for most of the season, they now find themselves in third place and four points adrift of second placed Reading after a recent erratic run of form which has seen 5 consecutive frustrating draws.

There is no doubt that West Ham have the personnel capable of automatic promotion but in recent weeks they have struggled to string together a good run of results. If the Hammers are to stand any chance of overtaking Reading then they need to look at possibly gaining maximum points from all of their final remaining games which is a tough ask from the players.

Our Prediction: As disappointing as it will be for West Ham, we think that the Upton Park club will have to settle for third place in the Championship and look at gaining promotion through the play-offs, and they should be confident of booking their trip to Wembley for a chance to return to the top-flight.

The Hammers will have to work hard to secure automatic promotion as the play-offs look the most likely option.

4th – BIRMINGHAM CITY
Manager: Chris Hughton
Played: 40 Points: 66 GD: +23
Current Form: LWLDWW

Although Birmingham have played 55 games this season already due to League & Cup commitments, the Midlands club still remains on course for a stab at promotion in the play-offs, despite indifferent form at the start of the season. Since relegation from the Premier League on the final day of the season in May, the future of the club has been clouded in uncertainty after money laundering from Carson Yeung and having to sell a number of its Premier League stars.

However, the club under the guidance of manager Chris Hughton has been able to compete successfully in the Championship with a small squad of players and are deservedly in the mix for a spot in the play-offs. Players such as a rejuvenated Marlon King, Chris Burke and talented youngster Nathan Redmond have all helped the Blues climb up the table. A win against Burnley in their game in hand last night helped to consolidate Birmingham’s position in the play-offs and moved them to only 6 points off third placed West Ham.

Our Prediction: We are more than certain that Birmingham City will be in the top-six come the end of April and we believe that they have enough in the tank to overcome the opposition in the play-offs and make it to the final at Wembley. Personally, we think a clash between West Ham & Birmingham City in the play-off final is looming but as we know anything can happen in football!

King has spearheaded Blues' attack this season and contributed with 16 goals.

5th – BLACKPOOL
Manager: Ian Holloway
Played: 40 Points: 63 GD: +13
Current Form: LLWDLW

Ian Holloway’s so-called “Tangerine Army” earned their praises last year after a hard-fought campaign last year saw them go down on the final day of the season to break the hearts of all Blackpool fans. However, ‘barmy’ manager Ian Holloway stayed with the club and has led them to be in the hunt for the play-offs with six games remaining as they look for an unlikely immediate return to the Premier League.

Vital goals this season from old-timer Kevin Phillips have helped the Seasiders to many crucial points along the course of this campaign as the likes of Matty Philips have also been give a chance to shine this season. Blackpool famously clinched promotion to the Premier League last time out with an epic performance in the play-offs but can they secure their place in the top-six once again to have a chance to repeat their heroics once again?

Our Prediction: Over course and distance this season, Blackpool have looked stronger than the likes of Brighton, Middlesbrough and Cardiff who are behind them in the table and waiting for the Seasiders to slip up. Therefore we think that come the end of the season, Blackpool will be in the top six and fighting for promotion via the play-offs.

Kevin Phillips has shown that he's still got the ability to score goals at the ripe age of 38.

6th – BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Manager: Gus Poyet
Played: 40 Points: 63 GD: +8
Current Form: DWLWDD

Considering this is Gus Poyet’s first managerial role, the Uruguayan is doing very well for himself after securing promotion from League One last year. Many expected the Seagulls to struggle in the Championship but Brighton have defied the odds and after just one loss in the League in 2012, Brighton have climbed up the table to leave themselves firmly in play-off contention with only a few matches to go.

However, the last six games will prove to be a serious test for Brighton’s promotion credentials as they have to face Reading, West Ham & Birmingham in the final run-in which could make or break their season.

Our Prediction: We think it will be close between Brighton and Cardiff but in the end the Seagulls fans will be celebrating come the end of the season as we believe that they will just pip Cardiff to 6th place.

Gus Poyet will be hoping that his side can hold their nerve and claim a spot in the play-offs.

7th – MIDDLESBROUGH
Manager: Tony Mowbray
Played: 40 Points: 63 GD: +3
Current Form: LLDDDD

After a great start to the season, Boro were lying in 2nd position at the end of 2011 as hopes were high that the Yorskhire club could reclaim its place among the best in the Premier League. However,a dodgy 2012 so far has seen Middlesbrough slip back down the table as they now find themselves just outside the play-offs on goal difference after recent erratic form has seen the Northern club winless in 6 and facing the prospect of missing out on promotion after what seemed to be a promising start to the campaign.

Goals from Marvin Emnes have played a pivotal role in Boro’s success so far this campaign and the fans will need to see the Dutchman score a few more goals if they are to overtake Brighton and claim a spot in the play-offs.

Our Prediction: Unfortunately for Boro fans we think that Middlesbrough just won’t have enough left to secure that all important play-off spot as the club will ponder what could have been after a bright start to the season.

Emnes' goals have been crucial in this season's campaign.

8th – CARDIFF
Manager: Malky Mackay
Played: 40 Points: 61 GD: +7
Current Form: WLDDDD

In the past few years, Cardiff have been one of those sides that have always missed out on play-off glory as they are still looking for their ultimate quest to be part of one of the 20 sides in the Premier League. The Welsh club, who are now sitting in the shadow of their arch-rivals Swansea who are impressing in the top division, had hoped that they would be sitting higher in the league after a successful start to the campaign; but a run of just one win in 8 after the Carling Cup defeat to Liverpool has seen the Bluebirds slide from 4th to 8th in the league.

However, in spite of their recent miserable form, the side from South Wales are still in contention for a place in the play-offs as they only lie two points behind 5th placed Blackpool and are therefore still in with a shout of reaching the play-offs.

Our Prediction: Cardiff have an easier run-in of fixtures compared to many others as they don’t have to face any of the top-six in their final run of games and they will compete with Brighton for that last play-off spot. However, ultimately we think that they will just miss out on the play-offs as fans will have to wait another season for a chance at making it to the Premier League.

Cardiff's recent dip in form has made it difficult for Malky Mackay's men to achieve promotion.

So fundamentally, we believe that there will be no change to the current top six in the final six games as Southampton & Reading will gain automatic promotion to the Premier League and West Ham, Birmingham, Blackpool & Brighton will battle it out in the play-offs. Nonetheless, as we know a lot of things can change in six games and there are bound to be plenty of shocks and surprises still left in store as the Championship campaign reaches its all important climax.

Please let us know your thoughts on who you think will triumph and who will be in the top six come the end of the season.

This article was written by Alex Grove and originally published on The Tactician.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

It seems that the Championship Playoff finals are often won by the team who is playing best at the end of the season. Last year, Ian Holloway masterminded a Blackpool offensive (cough) juggernaut to promotion behind Charlie Adam and against a Cardiff side who’ve developed the nasty reputation of being playoff chokers. This year, the popular picks from pundits have gone to anyone but the Bluebirds. But is there really a trend to which clubs are most successful come playoff time?

Examining table below, we can draw several assumptions. Firstly, it’s bad luck to finish fourth in the table after the regular season (another reason Cardiff City fans are cursing). Not once has a team who finished fourth won through to English football’s Big Dance.

Secondly, it’s easy to see that when a club finishes higher in the table (as in Watford, Derby County and Hull City from 2006-08), recent league form usually plays less of a part their playoff success – the two worst-performed teams over the last ten league games over the past ten years both achieved playoff success from third place. This means that the club was either safely in the playoffs or had dropped by dint of poor form from the automatic promotion places. In all three cases however, their pursuers failed to take advantage of poor form (cf. Watford 2006 and Derby County in 2007).

Also, it’s important to realise that Goal Difference counts. Every promoted club – excepting a strange mid-noughties phenomenon involving West Ham, Watford and Derby County – had a much superior goal differential to their opponents. Given before last season’s first-half scorefest, the prior 6 Playoff Finals had ended 1-0, the ability to balance defence with attack is crucial.

So how does this year’s championship reflect these trends?

At this stage it would be easy to discount Nottingham Forest as they’ve taken the least points from their last ten league matches of any club who finishing sixth over the past decade. Their collapse – lasting from mid-February to early April – should have effectively put paid to their chances. This is also reflected in their poor goal difference. However as these are finals and – as the quote goes – “You’ve got to be in it to win it”, they can’t be considered definite first-round “outs” just because a decade of stats (not a big sample) says they should be.

Reading‘s form appears irresistible. While Swansea City have won less often, they’ve done so with greater winning margins. This could be put down to facing weaker opposition or their attacking style of play. That their stats match up quite well with Watford’s and Derby County’s is also encouraging for fans of Cyril the Swan and his men. With Cardiff’s reputation as big-game bottlers perhaps overstated but disturbing reports of late-season drinking apparently close to the mark, perhaps it’s easier to discount the Bluebirds (my favourite Football Manager team) against the Shane Long-led Royals.

Fearless Playoff Predictions: Reading over Cardiff City, Swansea City over Nottingham Forest, Dave Jones to get sacked and then Reading to steamroll back into the Premiership, leaving Cyril the Swan distraught, tired and emotional.

For more analysis and opinion, shoot across to Matthew Wood‘s blog, Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

In the last several years of the Championship, there has been a trend developing that I’m surprised has not been made a big deal of.  Since the end of the 2005/2006 season, it has been the most unlikely team (in terms of recent history) who have gone up on the final day.  Not just in terms of recent history, but, more importantly, the momentum they have been building after being overlooked for a long portion of the season.

This year, I am sticking money down on (see below) and I believe it is the smart move (hopefully).

The last several years has seen a trend of clubs never before of the Premier League era go up, but that is not a prerogitive to put your money on someone.  There are 2 teams in the play offs this year who have never before competed at the top, but they are missing something that all the previous winners have had – the unbridled momentum they had going into the play offs.  On a tide of unrealistic achievement, Hull, Burnley and Blackpool have swished to victory.

But, as I said, this is no reason for Swansea or Cardiff to go up.  Here is my assessment.

Recent History
There are two types of teams who generally go up, either one who has been an established team, in their mind at least, and has come close several times but fallen short.  These teams eventually had all the right elements in place and gained the long sought after promotion in time.

They include, of recent memory, Ipswich Town who achieved playoff success in 2000 after several years of pushing back into the league in which they were original founders.  After a great initial season where they surprised everybody and finished fifth, they were dumped the next season and have not yet returned to the top, only being close on one or two occasions.

Bolton Wanderers had a couple of spells in the Premier League in the 90′s, and had gotten the bug and sustained a decent push towards promotion before achieving this again in 2001.  They have never looked back and are established in the League.

Birmingham City, though never in the Premier League, had been building towards it for years before they got the 2002 crown.  Aside from a couple of relegations since the 2002/2003 campaign, they have asserted themselves as a Premier League identity, quickly coming back up the 2 years they have been back in the Championship.

Like their midlands rivals, Wolves had been building towards promotion several years before they eventually achieved it.  An uncertain position in the Championship whenever they compete (they are usually as likely to do well as they could do bad), they would like to cement the place they want.  The initial relegation from the Premier League in 2004had them waiting 5 years before they were back in the big time.

Crystal Palace won the 2004 play offs in what may have been the most unlikely scenario possible that season.  Flirting with relegation and all sort of financial doomsday scenario’s in December 2003, Iain Dowie’s appointment looked a piece of genius.  he somehow took them not only to the playoffs, but to promotion.  Crystal Palace are one of the original alumni’s of the Premiership, but they have never survived a season in the top flight.  An unlikely story that mirrors some of the past winners that have been recent.

West Ham got promoted at the second time of asking in 2005.  They were always contenders for it.  The amount of drama that surrounds them means they are a big club, even if not at the level of other big clubs in England.

Watford fully deserved to win the 2006 play offs.  They were brilliant in the league, had a brilliant young manager and some brilliant diamonds (Ashley Young in particular).  They were unlikely at the start of that season to go up, and unsurprisingly were relegated for the second time in the Premiership a year later.  A case of too much too soon, as they weren’t prepared for the Premiership, languishing in the wrong end of the table of Division 1 / The Championship for years.  This is the beginning of the crazyness of the nPower (then Coca Cola) championship, where everyone could just as easily be a contender as relegation certainties.

Derby County hadn’t impressed on their return to the Championship back in 2002, their relegation from the Premier League had been hard to muster.  Until 2007, that is, they hadn’t really showed serious signs of promotion.  They beat a good West Brom side that day at Wembley, but were not equipped to go up at all, as the disaster of their final top flight season proved.  Another case of too much too soon.

In 2008, the Championship had long reached a reputation of unpredictability.  Whereas in the early part of the decade where teams had a solid grounding in the league, and if they missed out on promotion would be just as likely to be in the mix a year later, since Watford were promoted the whole dynamic of the league had radically changed.  Teams that were considered good quality for the division were slipping up and getting surprised in league position on regular occasions (read Ipswich, Leicester).  In turn, new clubs such as Hull were breaking the boundaries and getting promoted against all the rules.  Never before in the top division, they should not have had a right by history’s rules.

One year later, Burnley were promoted for the first time in over 30 years in another unlikely story.  With years gone by, they had mustered at best the top 10.  Under Owen Coyle’s inspirational leadership, Burnley were unlikely playoff winners as well.  Like several of the other playoff routed stars, it was a case of too much too soon, as they had never really prepared for the possibility of Premier League football.  Burnley’s stay was brief, but they made a lot of friends, and a new level of standard to build to.

Finally, last year, little Blackpool were promoted at the expense of one of this years contenders Cardiff.  As has been the case for three years on the spin, Blackpool were another team who by recent and overall history had no right to be competing in the playoffs, albeit winning the thing.  Time will tell whether or not they go up or down, but they have had a fruitful and competitive season amongst the big boys.

Fact
Since 2000, 2 promoted sides via play offs still remain in the top league, 5 have avoided relegation, and 6 had never been in the Premiership before victory.

Why is this important? The teams that had already been Premiership teams in recent years (Ipswich, Bolton, West Ham) before going back up the play off route, had been building steadily or hastily towards a return for years, depending on the club itself.  In recent years, the most unlikely team has won the final, as in the team that was expected to be nowhere near contention.  Below are the list of this year’s finalists.

In the mix

Cardiff have been perennial choke artists for quite some time.  They have several excellent players, and have been building up to something for quite a few years, but they always seem to slip whenever they are in a destiny in their own hands type of situation.  By all rights, with their squad depth they probably should have already been in the Premier League, but there is a fragility in the club.  They have been in great positions over the last 3 or so years, but always seem to fall by the wayside.  When Blackpool took a 3-2 lead in last years play off, they seemed to lose belief when they were excrutiatingly close.  With their latest low against Middlesborough (a 3-0 home deficit), they are still clearly in this funk.  If they did get promoted, they would probably be in good shape for a promoted side, but thats a big if.

Swansea have done very well.  Like Cardiff, they have built as a club well the last few seasons, and also like Cardiff, plenty would fancy seeing a Welsh team in the English top flight.  There is a great support and a good football style projected by the club so those are plusses.  if they were promoted it would be all the better at the expense of Cardiff who have been more likely in recent years and they would have a fervent support. 

They seem to still be building up though as a club, and I don’t expect them to “choke” so to speak, but I would reckon they are not quite ready to take the next step.

Should Nottingham Forest get promoted, I expect them to go the way of Derby County, which would not be in anyones best interests.  Nothing against Billy Davies, he has done a great job, but out of anyone in contention they look the most patchy of the lot, which is just a coincidence, nothing to do with Davies himself.  They have a few good youngsters and seasoned pro’s at the club which is in their pro list. 

They have a great history, a Premiership history, and competed in the play offs last year, so they have every chance, but they have been away for such a long time that should they get promoted I would only see disaster ahead.  I don’t expect it either, as they have been prone to underwhelming performances.  Though I would love to see three originals back where they belong in a romantic sense.

Reading are going to win the play offs.  The last several years has seen a trend of clubs never before of the Premier League era go up, but that is not a prerogitive to put your money on someone.  There are 2 teams in the play offs who have never before competed at the top, but they are missing something that all the previous winners have had – the unbridled momentum they had going into the play offs. 

On a tide of unrealistic achievement, Hull, Burnley and Blackpool have swished to victory.  I expect no different from Reading.  Last season they were in horrendous shape and not coping with life outside of the Premiership at all.  A lot of what the club had become had disintegrated and it seemed they nearly had to start from scratch.  Brian McDermott got everybody thinking straight again, they finished 2009/10 in good form,  Aside from a mid season blip, they have blistered into contention in such a way that their play off place was assured some time ago, when it looked against all odds. 

There is an overwhelming trend the last few years for form being a major factor in the play offs, and why shouldn’t it?  It is still the same season after all and training continues as normal for all clubs involved.  The most unlikely team to be in the play offs is basically the team who were not expected to be in the mix.  If you have gone from underachieving to overachieving your form is obviously sensational and this is where Reading are at.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The relegation battle in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. As the season progresses and Manchester United seemingly stumbling towards the title pursued by an equally reeling competition, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing are of the English top flight. This season sees the most intense dogfight to avoid the drop for many years.

It seems no-one in the bottom half of the table is immune, let alone safe. Before the weekend’s win against a Wigan outfit seeminly every bit mid-table Championship calibre, Sunderland had dropped like an action-movie elevator from potential European combatant to also-ran. Blackpool‘s astonishing start to the season came undone at exactly the same time as Charlie Adam’s Liverpool move was rejected. West Ham remain as consistent as the March weather. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no “certainties” for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland’s record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. This year, no such luck: the bottom nine clubs sit within one “six-pointer” of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous decade, the only real precedents for such a tight battle was in 2003, 2007 and 2008, where – aside from the three in the relegation zone – five other clubs finished within six points of the drop. In all cases, however, one club was cut adrift much earlier in the season: in 2003 it was Sunderland, 2007 Watford and 2008 the hapless Derby County. Generally (60% over the last ten years), one club is mathematically relegated much sooner in the season than their compatriots. With only four (or five) matches remaining in this EPL season, there is no such bunny.

As always, the complicating factor in the relegation battle is Goal Difference. Goal difference has been known to be crucial – just ask Fulham fans, who in 2008 saw their club survive thanks only to a GD 3 superior to that of relegated Reading’s. Interestingly, while it’s mentioned often and loudly, that’s one of only two times since the turn of the twenty-first century that a club has avoided relegation by virtue of goal difference. The other was the year before, when a David Unsworth penalty against his former club Sheffield United lifted the Latics out of the drop zone at the expense of the Blades.

Another trend over the decade has been that as more teams are involved in a relegation battle, a greater impact is seen in goal difference over the course of a season. For example, in the years where eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation (2003, 2007 and 2008) – or one crucial win against a fellow straggler – the average goal difference of any threatened clubs was much lower. The same is true in 2011, where nine clubs are still classified “in danger”.

Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it’s easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs increases.

Derby County are excluded because they are a statistical outlier – their season-long goal difference of -69 a whole 57% worse than any club’s during the past seven years – the next worst club in Goal Difference was 2003′s Sunderland squad, with -44. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become – with the possible exception of Ian Holloway’s Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) – Mark Hughes’ Fulham join Leeds United’s 2003 squad as the only “threatened” club in the last decade to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

It stands to reason that with an increased number of threatened clubs that average goal difference is reduced. If more clubs are involved in the Relegation battle, then that means for an even competition. An even competition means for even scores across a week-to-week basis and no matter if this Premier League has not been one of “vintage” calibre, it certainly has gone nearly unparalleled for intrigue and competition. In days past, the magic total of 40 points has been suggested to be a minimum safe distance. Only once has a club been relegated who had scored above forty points: West Ham, who were desperately unlucky to go down in 2003 with a record points tally.

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 10% of the season still to play, the 2010-11 average Goal Difference figures are going to be amongst the lowest of the past ten years. If we extrapolate the figures as they stand now, it could mean an average goal difference as low as -16.85 for all threatened clubs over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is statistically slightly (5%) more intense than than the previous most intense fight in 2008 involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton. Only this year, there’s no Derby County – there are no (relatively) easy points.

For more analysis and opinion, shoot across to Matthew Wood’s blog, Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

As we cross the cusp from morning to afternoon, it is being widely reported that Newcastle are within hours of appointing Alan Pardew as their new manager, following owner Mike Ashley‘s seemingly illogical decision to sack Chris Hughton from his post on Monday.

According to nearly all of the foremost bastions of the British media, Pardew will be named as Hughton’s successor at some point during the next 24-48 hours, as we wait for the culmination of the ‘advanced talks’ that are currently being held between the two parties at St James’ Park.

It is further understood that a five-and-a-half year deal has been placed on the table for Pardew, with a relatively low wage that is said to have been ‘highly-incentivized’ by loading the contract with a multitude of performance-related bonuses.

Several sources are also claiming that the former Southampton boss will not been given ‘penny one’ to spend on transfers and contract-renegotiations until summer at the earliest.

Hughton’s sacking, which has been met with blanket scorn from the footballing community at large, was prompted by Ashley’s desire to install a ‘more experienced’ (his words, not mine) man at the helm of the club into which he has poured £200 million of his personal fortune – and, considering that Pardew has a 500-game, four-club managerial career behind him, the devil’s advocate in me can just about vindicate his appointment in Hughton’s wake.

Chris Hughton was sacked by Newcastle on Monday

However, Pardew’s 11-year career isn’t exactly dripping with plaudits, with most of his success coming early on in guiding Reading and West Ham to a high-ranking Championship finish and a promotion to the Premier League (via the play-offs) respectively.

His crowning achievement was arguably piloting the Hammers (who were mired in tumultuous mid-decade upheaval at the time) to the 2005/06 FA Cup final, in which they lost out narrowly to Liverpool in extra-time, thanks to a belting strike from a visibly knackered Steven Gerrard – and that’s about it really.

Pardew was duly sacked by West Ham in December 2006 after guiding them to their worst run of results in 70 years and, a fortnight later, took over at 19th-placed Charlton – who went on to finish up in…well, in 19th place.

Despite being touted as favourites for an instant return to the top table, Charlton rapidly descended back into second-tier obscurity under Pardew’s charge and he was forced out of the Valley ‘by mutual consent’ in late 2008.

The following summer, Pardew was sworn in at nouveau riche League One hopefuls Southampton and, despite battling admirably against the effects of a pre-season 10-point deduction, he and his staff were jettisoned after narrowly missing out on a play-off spot amidst rumours of cripplingly player low morale, hierarchical conflicts and increasing isolation at  St Mary’s.

And here we are.

Pardew delivers the verdict on his time at Charlton

The question I’d like to put to Ashley is whether he’s just chasing a cheap Cockney knees-up with one of his old chums, or whether he actually considers ‘periodical middling’ mixed with a healthy dose of ‘ill-fated lower-league slumming’ to constitute the ‘necessary experience’ needed to ‘take Newcastle forward’?

I guess technically it does, in so much as that any back-story technically constitutes experience – though Chris Hughton may feel aggrieved that single-handedly rescuing an imploding giant from the brink of ‘belly-up’, achieving the instant promotion back to the big-time that Pardew failed to negotiate at Charlton and punching his weight in the Premier League with a squad that was all-but completely written off not so very long ago (all within the space of 18 months) somehow does not.

The mind boggles, it really does.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

It would appear that a certain other Spanish international has replaced ‘Cesc Fabregas at the top of Barcelona’s summer shopping list, with Liverpool’s recently-shorn hitman Fernando Torres now reported to be the Catalan’s ‘numero uno’ transfer priority.

Here’s the best of what today’s transfer gossip columns have to offer…

Premier League

Barcelona are ‘determined’ to sign Fernando Torres this summer, and are preparing to bid for the Liverpool striker after the World Cup. However, incoming president Sandro Rosell is reportedly not willing to pay over the odds for the 26-year-old.

Rumours in the Catalonian press suggest that Rosell is only willing to pay £38 million for the Spanish hitman, as he believes that to be a fair valuation considering Barca only paid Valencia £35 million for Torres’ international strike-partner David Villa last month. (Mail)

Chelsea have offered Benfica £10 million for their highly-rated Brazilian centre-back David Luiz, although the Blues’ bid falls some way short of the Portuguese giant’s €35 million asking price for the 23-year-old. (Times)

Manchester City’s wayward Brazilian winger Robinho is expected to be told that he is free to leave the club when his representatives hold talks with the City board later today. (Mirror)

Serbian forward Milan Jovanovic is ready to pull out of his deal to join Liverpool next season in favour of joining Rafael Benitez at Inter Milan. (BBC Sport)

Tottenham’s Mexican winger Giovani Dos Santos is a target for Italian side Genoa. The former Barcelona starlet spent last season on loan at Turkish giants Galatasaray. (Sun)

Everton are plotting a £5 million bid for Torino’s Italian U21′s defender Angelo Ogbonna, who is also being tracked by Arsenal. (Mail)

Birmingham City boss Alex McLeish has ruled out signing Rangers striker Kris Boyd over the summer as the Scottish goal-machine’s wage demands are far too high. (Daily Record)

Birmingham are also ready to give up on signing jinky Irish winger Aiden McGeady after Celtic upped their asking price yet again. (Daily Record)

One player that Birmingham are still interested in signing is Mamelodi Sundown’s striker Katlego Mphela, who was impressive for the Bafana Bafana at the World Cup.

Bolton Wanderers have announced the signing of Bulgarian winger Martin Petrov who was a free-agent after being released by Manchester City. (Sky Sports)

Fulham are chasing Ivory Coast midfielder Cheik Ismael Tiote who currently plays in Holland with FC Twente. (Sun)

Newcastle are looking to bolster their squad ahead of their return to the top flight by signing Bolton left-back Jlloyd Samuel (Mirror) and Algeria’s reserve ‘keeper Rais M’bolhi. (Sun)

Serie A

Juventus are plotting a swap deal that would see Portuguese midfielder Tiago (plus €10 million) move to Atletico Madrid, with prolific Uruguayan striker Diego Forlan moving the other way. (Tuttosport)

The Bianconeri have completed the €4.5 million signing of AC Milan ‘keeper Marco Storari on a three-year deal. (Tuttomercato)

Inter Milan are mulling over a move for Hamburg winger Eljero Elia, and are willing to shell out €16 million for the 23-year-old Dutch international. (NL)

AC Milan owner Silvio Berlusconi has hinted that there may be a ‘big signing’ joining the Rossoneri this summer, and rumours circulating amidst the local press suggest Barcelona outcast Zlatan Ibrahimovic will be the marquee name arriving at the San Siro. (Oggi)

Brescia are poised to offer Stephen Appiah the chance to return to the club. The 29-year-old Ghanaian midfielder enjoyed a fantastic season at the Rodinelle in 2002/03 whilst on loan from Parma. (Gazzetta Dello Sport)

LA Galaxy have offered AC Milan playmaker Ronaldinho the chance to move to the MLS when his contract at the Rossoneri expires in 2011. (Sky Sports Italia)

La Liga

Barcelona have completed the €20 million signing of Valencia winger Juan Mata. (Onda Cero)

Barca are also said to be tracking Schalke’s Brazilian right-back Rafinha and may make a €10 million offer for the 24-year-old over the next few days. (Sport)

In even further Barca news, the Catalan club are also said to be willing to rival Inter Milan in the race to sign Liverpool’s €25-million-rated holding man Javier Mascherano.

* * * * *

Soccerlens has a dedicated transfer section available for your perusal, which contains all the news, rumours and archives you could possibly need.

* * * * *

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From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Reading 2-4 Aston Villa
English FA Cup
7 March 2010

Reading took a 2-0 lead but Villa stormed back with a hat trick from John Carew.

Shane Long had two goals in the first half as Reading would lead 2-0 after the first 45 minutes. It was not enough though as Villa came back strong with three goals from John Carew and one from Ashley Young. The home side just didn’t have the quality to contain Aston Villa and their run is now over in the FA Cup.

Aston Villa will now face Chelsea in the semifinals.

Reading 2-4 Aston Villa Video Highlights

Long 37′ (1-0)

Long 42′ (2-0)

Young 47′ (2-1)

Carew 51′ (2-2)

Carew 57′ (2-3)

Carew 90′ (2-4)

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Monday was another light day on the transfer news and rumors front, but we still do have some top clubs looking to make reinforcements before time runs out.

Defense is still the order of the day, as a few Premier League clubs are in the market for additions at the back, while a couple of top European clubs are looking to add some quality on the flanks.

We’ll be back this evening with all of the day’s top transfer headlines, so hopefully we’ll have a nice amount of tidbits to bring you, and perhaps a few new summer signings as well.

England

Chelsea In For Mexes

Chelsea could make an offer of 14 million euros plus Ricardo Carvalho for Roma center back Philippe Mexes (Goal.com), and a move could also be forthcoming for AC Milan midfielder Clarence Seedorf (Goal.com).

Analysis: Mexes’ agent has already rubbished the Chelsea rumors, and to add to his comments, I don’t see Roma selling another key player this summer after selling Alberto Aquilani. As for Seedorf, I don’t see Milan selling him either.

Liverpool Eye New Center Backs

Liverpool monitored Athletic Bilbao center back Fernando Amorebieta in Bilbao’s match against Barcelona on Sunday evening. The 24-year-old is rated at £10m. (The Sun)

Also on the center back front, Liverpool will have to pay £7m for Dynamo Kiev center back Pape Diakhate, according to the Daily Mail.

Analysis: Sunday’s defeat to Tottenham might have exposed the need to add reinforcements in other areas, but with injury concerns in mind, Liverpool do need to add quality in the center of defense. You do have to wonder how much more they’ll spend this summer though, after shelling out a lot of money to bring in Aquilani and Glen Johnson.

Everton Target Banega And Kapo

According to the Daily Post, Everton are close to signing Valencia midfielder Ever Banega on a season-long loan deal.

Everton are also preparing to make a £1.5m offer to Wigan for attacker Olivier Kapo. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: The best bit of business Everton could do right now would be to agree a deal with Manchester City for Joleon Lescott and turn that money around to add to the squad. But I digress…

Spurs Must Sell To Buy Petrov

Harry Redknapp will have to offload someone if he is to make a move for Manchester City winger Martin Petrov. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: The latest reports say that Jermaine Jenas and David Bentley could be sold to Aston Villa to help make way for Petrov and Celtic’s Scott Brown. Bentley and Jenas have been linked with Villa throughout the summer, but Villa’s poor showing against Wigan could help things finally get in motion.

Wigan Still In For Diame

Wigan manager Roberto Martinez remains hopeful about completing the signing of Rayo Vallecano midfielder Mohamed Diame, who was all set to complete his move to Wigan before an issue came up in his medical. (The Sun)

Analysis: A heart issue was reportedly the hiccup in the deal going through, but it must not be one that could cause serious problems or is something that can be taken care of, otherwise Wigan wouldn’t still be trying to get him signed up.

Burnley Move For Bikey

Reading defender Andre Bikey has passed a medical at Burnley ahead of completing a £2.8m move to the club. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: Burnley focused on the back with their pre-season signings, but it doesn’t hurt to add more Premier League experience and quality depth there after having some struggles in their opener at Stoke City.

Spain

Barca Target Riera

According to the Daily Mail, Barcelona are lining up a bid for Liverpool winger Albert Riera.

Analysis: I don’t see Liverpool letting go of Riera unless Barcelona stump up a fee that represents a significant profit over the £8m they paid for him last summer.

Germany

Govou In Stuttgart’s Sights

VfB Stuttgart could move for Lyon’s Sidney Govou as a replacement for Martin Lanig, who recently went down with torn knee ligaments. (Goal.com)

Analysis: Govou is currently wearing the captain’s armband for Lyon, so he’s still very much in a prominent role for the club. A thigh injury looks to keep him out of Wednesday’s Champions League tie against Anderlecht, which is a negative for Lyon but a positive for Stuttgart, as he won’t be cup-tied if they do move for him.

Daily Links

Serie A 2009/10 Preview

SL’s Chris Mann previews the new Serie A season, which gets underway on Saturday.

UEFA Unveils Club Football Award Nominees

UEFA have released their awards nominees, and as you should’ve expected, it’s full of representatives from a certain few clubs.

Premier League Opening Weekend Attendance Figures

No surprise who was at the top of the list, eh?

Ten New Premier League Signings Who Will Struggle This Season

The Spoiler takes a look at which faces in new Premier League places will not live up to the hype this season.

Celtic v. Arsenal Preview (+ An Arsenal-Centric Podcast)

If you’re an Arsenal fan, here’s the latest weekly podcast from the Arsenal FC Blog and a preview of today’s Champions League showdown against Celtic. Speaking of that match, we’ll have live commentary of it right here on SL.

Is Joleon Lescott The New Berbatov?

And no, we’re not talking about his finishing abilities, in case you’re wondering.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Many a football fan around the world is in full-on rejoicing (or relief, for some) mode, with the focus shifting back towards club action on the pitch.

However, there are still more than two weeks to go in the summer transfer window, so there’s still plenty of business yet to be concluded in the market. As always, you can keep up with the latest summer signings with our updated summer transfer lists, and we’ve got the latest top transfer news, rumors, and signings here in today’s roundup.

England

United In For Neuer?

Manchester United could try to pip Bayern Munich to the signature of Schalke 04 keeper Manuel Neuer, with a 5m move in the cards if Bayern don’t up their bid for the 23-year-old. (ESPN Soccernet)

Analysis: Neuer has been a little prone to mistakes, but he’s high on talent and potential. Some might wonder why United would be trying to get such a highly-rated young keeper when they’ve already well-stocked with keepers. Ben Foster would appear to be next in line after Van der Sar hangs up his gloves, but nothing is or should be assured, especially with Foster’s injury problems in mind. Besides that, Tomasz Kuszczak might not be at United much longer if he has his eyes on regular first-team football.

Chelsea Close On Matic, Eye Huseklepp

Chelsea have agreed a 4m fee with MFK Kosice for young Serbian midfielder Nemanja Matic, and a deal could be wrapped up in the next few days. (The Mirror)

Analysis: Hopefully they’ll send him out on loan (back to Kosice, perhaps) to ensure that he gets regular first-team football. He’s broken into Serbia’s senior squad, and being able to get regular starts and further impress could help him be in the frame for Serbia’s World Cup squad next year.

Another name on Chelsea’s radar is Norwegian attacker Erik Huseklepp, who plays for SK Brann. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: Huseklepp likes long walks on the bench, reading a good book by the fireplace, ice fishing, and scoring from tight angles. Okay, I don’t know about the first three, but the last one is true times a few. He certainly helped his stock yesterday with a Man of the Match performance for Norway against Scotland, in which he scored his first international goal.

West Ham Move For Chamakh

Arsenal have pulled out of the race for Bordeaux striker Marouane Chamakh, but there’s still a good chance he winds up in London. Fulham have offered Diomansy Kamara in a straight swap offer, but West Ham have trumped their offer with a bid that includes an initial 4.3m in cash and a 50% sell-on clause. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: That 50% sell-on clause is pretty attractive, because if Chamakh does well in the Premier League, Bordeaux could net a very sizable windfall in a few years.

Brown And Moses On Harry’s Wishlist?

Harry Redknapp is pondering a move for Celtic midfielder Scott Brown, according to The Guardian. The 24-year-old Scot would cost around 8m.