The relegation battle in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. As the season progresses and Manchester United seemingly stumbling towards the title pursued by an equally reeling competition, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing are of the English top flight. This season sees the most intense dogfight to avoid the drop for many years.

It seems no-one in the bottom half of the table is immune, let alone safe. Before the weekend’s win against a Wigan outfit seeminly every bit mid-table Championship calibre, Sunderland had dropped like an action-movie elevator from potential European combatant to also-ran. Blackpool‘s astonishing start to the season came undone at exactly the same time as Charlie Adam’s Liverpool move was rejected. West Ham remain as consistent as the March weather. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no “certainties” for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland’s record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. This year, no such luck: the bottom nine clubs sit within one “six-pointer” of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous decade, the only real precedents for such a tight battle was in 2003, 2007 and 2008, where – aside from the three in the relegation zone – five other clubs finished within six points of the drop. In all cases, however, one club was cut adrift much earlier in the season: in 2003 it was Sunderland, 2007 Watford and 2008 the hapless Derby County. Generally (60% over the last ten years), one club is mathematically relegated much sooner in the season than their compatriots. With only four (or five) matches remaining in this EPL season, there is no such bunny.

As always, the complicating factor in the relegation battle is Goal Difference. Goal difference has been known to be crucial – just ask Fulham fans, who in 2008 saw their club survive thanks only to a GD 3 superior to that of relegated Reading’s. Interestingly, while it’s mentioned often and loudly, that’s one of only two times since the turn of the twenty-first century that a club has avoided relegation by virtue of goal difference. The other was the year before, when a David Unsworth penalty against his former club Sheffield United lifted the Latics out of the drop zone at the expense of the Blades.

Another trend over the decade has been that as more teams are involved in a relegation battle, a greater impact is seen in goal difference over the course of a season. For example, in the years where eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation (2003, 2007 and 2008) – or one crucial win against a fellow straggler – the average goal difference of any threatened clubs was much lower. The same is true in 2011, where nine clubs are still classified “in danger”.

Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it’s easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs increases.

Derby County are excluded because they are a statistical outlier – their season-long goal difference of -69 a whole 57% worse than any club’s during the past seven years – the next worst club in Goal Difference was 2003′s Sunderland squad, with -44. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become – with the possible exception of Ian Holloway’s Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) – Mark Hughes’ Fulham join Leeds United’s 2003 squad as the only “threatened” club in the last decade to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

It stands to reason that with an increased number of threatened clubs that average goal difference is reduced. If more clubs are involved in the Relegation battle, then that means for an even competition. An even competition means for even scores across a week-to-week basis and no matter if this Premier League has not been one of “vintage” calibre, it certainly has gone nearly unparalleled for intrigue and competition. In days past, the magic total of 40 points has been suggested to be a minimum safe distance. Only once has a club been relegated who had scored above forty points: West Ham, who were desperately unlucky to go down in 2003 with a record points tally.

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 10% of the season still to play, the 2010-11 average Goal Difference figures are going to be amongst the lowest of the past ten years. If we extrapolate the figures as they stand now, it could mean an average goal difference as low as -16.85 for all threatened clubs over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is statistically slightly (5%) more intense than than the previous most intense fight in 2008 involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton. Only this year, there’s no Derby County – there are no (relatively) easy points.

For more analysis and opinion, shoot across to Matthew Wood’s blog, Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Watford impress again

Last week I said it was time to stop treating the North Londoners like plucky underdogs; after the 3-1 win over Middlesborough, when do we start treating them like contenders? To see off Boro inside twenty minutes sends an awesome message out to the rest of the division.

I think, long-term, a lack of depth will catch up with them. At the moment though, they have the swagger of a team that thinks they can beat anyone.

30 attempts later, Hull finally win away

The Tigers will be delighted to have this monkey off their backs. With Bullard, Cairney and Koren, they have real quality in their midfield. A sizable question mark does, however, hang over their front-line and the pressure is on Jay Simpson to start firing.

Ferguson breathes a sigh of relief

In this era when most managers are never more than a bad run of form away from the dole queue, Darren Ferguson needed this. Nothing, however, in this scrappy win to convince me that it isn’t going to be a long hard winter at Deepdale.

Portsmouth and Derby finally start enjoying themselves

Both these teams have more quality than their league positions suggest. They will now hope that these big wins provide the kick-starts their seasons need.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Derby (until the 92nd minute) show how to stop QPR

QPR have hit 9 in their opening 3 games but, until a late collapse, Derby nullified them. They got tight quickly in midfield and stopped the league leaders from creating chances. Rangers need to learn how to cope with this; sides are not going to gift them time and space. County look a much better side than their 4 pts from 4 games suggests. Expect Nigel Clough’s rebuilding operation to start showing results in the coming months.

Portsmouth have the players to be doing much better than they are

Pompey started today with David Nugent, Tommy Smith, John Utaka, Marc Wilson and Aaron Mokoena in their side, all players who should be thriving at this level. The financial situation may be desperate but there is still quality at Fratton Park; it’s motivation that’s required.

The new boys look comfortable

With Milwall and Leeds winning and Norwich securing a draw away at Nottingham Forest, it was a good day for the newly promoted sides. In particular, the Den has the potential to become a real fortress this season.

Swansea might just have discovered a cutting edge

Paulo Sousa’s Swans were hard to beat but scored fewer goals than anyone else last season. Under Brendan Rogers, however, they have more thrust going forward. They created plenty against Burnley and Scott Sinclair looks capable of worrying quality defences.

Team of the Weekend – Ipswich

Ipswich are starting to look the promotion contenders that they were meant to be last season. Their performance against Bristol had a confidence which was rarely there last season. For once, Roy Keane actually sounded quite happy afterwards.

Player of the Weekend – Jonathan Forte

The Scunthorpe striker took his 2 goals superbly, giving a boost to those Irons’ fans who despaired at the loss of Gary Hooper and Paul Hayes.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Soccerlens’ Football League preview reaches its climax ahead of the big kick-off this weekend, with The Championship playing a starring role.

There’s plenty of big names battling it out for a money-spinning place in the Premiership, so read for our views on who’ll be mixing it with Manchester United next season, who’ll be lowering themselves into League One, and our prediction for Newcastle’s season.

Bluffer’s guide to the league

Even in the days when it was the old Second Division, the league that isn’t the top flight has been well regarded. Known as The Championship since 2004, it’s the richest second-tier league anywhere in the world. The playoff final is often referred to as the most valuable game in the world due to the riches on offer from the Premier League for one season before the inevitable relegation.

If The Championship were a football it would be…

Craig Bellamy. Not quite as good as it thinks it is, but there’s enough class to be able to mix it with the best from time to time. Never quite convinces at the highest level but exciting to watch and genuinely unpredictable.

Last season in a Tweet

Wolves take the title despite a mid-season dip. Nearest challengers also fall over themselves not to win the league. Ex-Premier League teams make up the bottom three.

Tables toppers

In a league where none of the relegated three from the Premier League look quite capable of lighting up the Championship, Sheffield United look a good bet for the title. Although the Blades stumbled in the playoffs, they have the momentum behind them and, at times, looked the best team in the league. There’s plenty of firepower and creativity in the side (Ched Evans is a good signing) and Kevin Blackwell’s side will the the ones to beat.

Promotion pushers

Never underestimate the power of Roy Keane. You can ask questions about his ability to manage in the Premier League but he took Sunderland up from the Championship and should do the same with Ipswich Town. Owner Marcus Evans has deep pockets and Keane has already set about building a squad for promotion. The Tractor Boys know what’s expected of them and Keane is the man to lead them to it.

Playoff prospects

Had Tony Mowbray stayed at West Brom and kept the vultures at bay for the Baggies best players, we’d have made them title favourites. As it is, they should comfortably make the playoffs. Roberto Di Matteo is new to this level but did well with the MK Dons and, in Simon Cox and Rueben Reid has signed players with potential but no proven experience at this level. A lot rests on whether the Baggies can hold onto the likes of Jonathan Greening until the transfer window shuts.

Gareth Southgate has quietly been going about his business at Middlesborough this close season and despite the departure of Stewart Downing, likely to be followed by that of Tuncay, but Boro still have a very strong squad. If Southgate can refocus his troops then expect the Teesiders to be challenging for an immediate return.

Reading should have been good enough to head straight back to the Premier League. As it was they occasionally lost their way last season, and new boss Brendan Rodgers may find it hard to turn them into title contenders. Kevin Doyle may be gone but the Hunt brothers will always be dangerous and the Royals should play some of the most eye-catching football in the division again.

Preston are getting to be a fixture in the playoffs without ever being quite good enough to make the step up to the Premier League. Alan Irvine has slowly put together a very good team that may not be high on star quality but North End will again be tough to break down and may fly under the radar again. Other teams should not underestimate them.

Outside bet

There’s plenty of other teams – Swansea, Cardiff and QPR – who’ll be challenging for the playoffs but keep an eye on Derby County. This will be Nigel Clough’s first full season in charge and all the signs are he could replicate his success with Burton. He’s signed players he knows like Jake Buxton and Dean Moxey and has revitalised a club badly in need of a pick-me-up. Clough will be in for the long haul but the Rams may yet surprise many.

Relegation fodder

Barnsley may have just managed to keep themselves in the Championship in recent seasons but this could be a fight too far. Simon Davey’s team will give it their all but with two strong teams promoted from League 1 and their rivals have strengthened. The Yorkshire club have what it takes to compete at this level, but may need a season in the division below to realise it.

Scunthorpe won a lot of friends by beating MK Dons then Millwall in the League One playoffs last season but it won’t be an easy season in the Championship for the Iron. Nigel Adkins is a good young manager but with the resources at his disposal and the quality of oter teams in the division, Scunthorpe may have to settle for being a yo-yo club.

Blackpool have Ian Holloway as manager and if anybody can save the Tangerines from the drop it’s the outspoken manager from Bristol. Holloway had fellow relegation rivals Plymouth punching well above their weight but his record is somewhat tainted by relegation at Leicester. Much will rest on new signing Jason Euell but even his goals won’t be enough for ‘Pool.

Joker in the pack

Newcastle United, in every sense of the word. After a pre-season of complete inertia with no takeover, no manager and no new players, the Toon are an utter mystery ahead of the season. On paper, the ‘biggest club in the Championship’ looked strong enough to bounce back but many of the squad are looking for an exit and there’s no telling how a bunch of players who looked uninspired last season will fare outside of the Premier League. Death or glory, or, quite probably, mediocrity, awaits.

Solid gold gaffer

Gary Johnson has a knack of getting the best out of teams that are more than the sum of their parts. Defied expectation that Bristol City would head straight back down to League One by turning them into playoff contenders and will continue to do so this time around.

Three players to watch

Simon Cox was hot property in League One last season, topping the scoring table for the division in an average Swindon side. West Brom have paid £2m for his services, and the youngster has much to prove as the Baggies look to fire their way back to the Premier League.

Craig Noone has come a long way since coming up through the ranks at non-league Skelmersdale United. The midfielder leapt from the Blue Square North to the Championship when Plymouth Argyle signed him last season and he was a rare bright spot as the Pilgrims struggled. Wigan and Sunderland were rumoured to be interested and Noone will be a key player again for the Devon club.

George Boyd has already more than justified his record-breaking £260,000 move to Peterborough three years ago. Now the 23-year-old has his chance to make his mark on the Championship. Tipped by many to reach the Premier League, expect the former Stevenage man to terrorise defenders again this season.

Also See:

09/10 League One – Season Preview
09/10 League Two – Season Preview
09/10 Blue Square Premier – Season Preview

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

As we move closer to the start of the season, it’s at this stage that fans start analysing the squad list, namely which players to sign and who of the current squad will be sold, and who they hope won’t be sold.

And among all the names that will flicker up briefly on transfer sites over the coming weeks, there will be some genuine quality – players to get both the fans and the board excited.

So, here then is a pick of the best of the bunch from the lower leagues: players who’ve just moved, may move soon or have come off the back of a good season. What they all have in common is they’re worth keeping an eye on in 09/10. For virtually all of the names below, they face a defining season, either after a big move, a promotion, or to prove that the past 12 months haven’t just been a flash in the pan.

This isn’t a definitive list, more of a selection of up and coming players from League 1 down (I’ve made an exception for Jake Buxton) who may well be gracing the headlines or the transfer pages in the coming months. And if there’s a starlet at your club you’d like to highlight, tell us more about him in the comments.

Jake Buxton (Derby County)

When Nigel Clough went into his first pre-season as Derby County manager it was no surprise who he returned to raid his old club for. Defender Buxton was one of the lynchpins of Burton Albion’s Conference-winning team and was named the club’s Player of the Season.

The 24-year-old is an uncompromising yet classy centre-half who was one of the standout performers in non-league last season and deserved another shot at league football after experiencing relegation with Mansfield in 2008.

Some may raise their eyebrows at the step up but, as Michael Kightly and Paul Parry have shown, if you’re good enough you can move from the Conference to the Championship. After a couple of seasons of watching poor defences, Rams fans will be hoping Buxton will do the same for them as he did for Burton.

Fabian Delph (Leeds United)

Premier League fans are likely to be familiar with Delph, although may not necessarily have seen him in action. The 19-year-old midfielder is a regular in the transfer gossip columns these days after a stunning breakout season has seen him linked with the likes of Arsenal, Fulham, Villa and Everton.

Delph was always highly rated at Elland Road and this season has shown exactly why. The teenager has pace, power and a great awareness of the game, not to mention an eye for a spectacular goal, as witnessed against Brighton this season.

Delph scooped the Young Player of the Season award for both club and League 1 and manager Simon Grayson has said it may be hard to keep hold of his young starlet. Defences in League One will be hoping he moves on to a bigger stage sooner rather than later.

Paul Jones (Exeter City)

When a promoted team’s player of the season is their goalkeeper, it’s worth betting that keeper is something special indeed. Jones is still only 22 yet has clocked up 134 first team appearances for Exeter, including keeping clean sheets at both Old Trafford and Wembley.

The tall shot stopper has come a long way from the teenager who looked nervy on crosses and struggled with his kicking. Now Jones commands his area with authority and is the starting point for many attacks.

Several Championship clubs have been rumoured to be interesting in the former Leyton Orient trainee, but Exeter will be wanting to hang onto Jones as he’ll key a key player as they plan for the new campaign in League One.

Sam Saunders (Brentford)

Brentford’s new winger has come to League One the hard way and, at 25, knows this will be a season that could make or break his career. The former QPR trainee was released from Loftus Road and ended up at Carshalton before Dagenham and Redbridge swooped four years ago.

Since then Saunders has gone from strength to strength and, having found the net seven times last season, has also added goals to his game. Indeed, Saunders’ form was one of the reasons Dagenham were in the hunt for a playoff spot last season.

The Londoner also possesses a sweet right foot that can produce a pinpoint cross and should slot in nicely to Andy Scott’s style of play at Brentford this season. Saunders has never played at this level before and will be keen to show he’s got the ability to go even further.

Steve Morison (Millwall)

It was always going to be a question of when not if Steve Morison would move to a higher level. The former Stevenage targetman has been prolific in the last two Conference seasons and netted 67 league goals in three years for Boro. Once Stevenage failed to get promotion it was clear Morison would be moving on and Millwall were the team who won the race for his signature.

Twice an FA Trophy winner with Boro, this strong powerful 25-year-old has the striker’s instinct of being in the right place at the right time and being handed the armband at Broadhall Way last season added a sense of maturity to his game.

Morison may not find League One defences quite as accommodating this season but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of non-league’s most deadly finishers reach double figures in a Millwall side looking for a return to the Championship.

Nicky Wroe (Torquay United)

Paul Buckle’s signed a lot of players during his short time in charge of Torquay United but Wroe is possibly the pick of the bunch. A talented, scheming midfielder, Wroe was at the heart of all things that were good about the Gulls’ play last season and, more than once, completely ran the show.

Released four years after coming through the ranks at Barnsley, Wroe’s career seemed destined to go the way of so many other footballers who’d failed to fulfil their early promise when he found himself in the Conference with York. After a year with the Minstermen, Buckle came calling and the 23-year-old hasn’t looked back.

Plenty of clubs higher up the pyramid have been casting admiring glances in Wroe’s direction but if the Gulls hang onto him he could be a not-so-secret weapons for their climb up the league.

Reuben Reid (Rotherham United)

Reid’s early career could best be summed up as troubled and nomadic. The striker may have come through the ranks at Plymouth Argyle back in 2005 but that period included five different loan spells and confrontations with managers. Finally, though, it seems the talented youngster has found a home at a club who don’t properly have one.

Since moving to South Yorkshire, Reid has knuckled down and found a level of consistency not always present in his game, and 19 goals in all competition for 08/09 has been the result. He’s already written himself into Millers folklore by scoring winning penalties against both Sheffield Wednesday and Wolves in the Carling Cup last season.

But for their points deductions, Rotherham would have been in the hunt for promotion last season. Their fans will expect a top seven finish this time around and if Reid’s form continues, he could be the man to fire them there.

Exodus Geohagon (Kettering Town)

Geohagon may posses one of the most eye-catching names, and haircuts, in non-league football but it’s his performances on the pitch that have had Championship scouts furiously taking notes on this former West Brom trainee.

A man-mountain of a central defender, Geohagon’s partnership with Guy Branston at the heart of the Poppies back line was one of the reasons Kettering adjusted quickly to life in the Conference and, providing they can keep hold of the 24-year-old, he’ll be one of the players they’ll be building their second season in the non-league top flight.

Manager Mark Cooper has said it will take a “stupid” offer to take Geohagon away from Rockingham Road but there’s more than one club in the league prepared to write large cheques and it would be a surprise if the England C international was still in the Conference next season.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

With the end of the transfer window and a weekend full of action on the pitch so close together, many a manager no doubt sweated through Saturday, and many will do so on Sunday, hoping that unforeseen injuries crop up to force a last-minute rush into the market.

There are many unfinished deals yet, and there are probably also a few surprise in store before the clock strikes five on Monday evening.

Who could be going where, and who’s going nowhere? Keep on reading to find out.

England

The race to sign Antonio Valencia is on in earnest. After Real Madrid came in with an offer of £9m to loan Valencia for 18 months with a view to pay £9m more for a permanent deal, Manchester United, who have the first option on the Wigan winger, are working feverishly to counter Real’s bid. (The Mirror)

Analysis: As I said yesterday, they likely would’ve preferred this battle wait until the summer, but the time is now if they want him. (Update: He’s turned down Real, so…)

Portsmouth have made a bid of £7m for Tottenham’s Giovani dos Santos, who has been an invisible man at Spurs since his £4.7m summer move from Barcelona. (Portsmouth News)

Analysis: Dos Santos made a fair amount of appearances for Tottenham in the first few months of the season when Juande Ramos was still in charge, but he only made his first appearance under Harry Redknapp last weekend against Manchester United in the FA Cup, which is a pretty good indication that he might be better off trying his hand elsewhere.

Everton have come up empty in their search for a new striker this month, but they certainly haven’t had a shortage of targets. The latest one is Rennes striker Asamoah Gyan, who’s rated at £8m but is yet another player Everton are looking at as a loan option. (The Sun)

Analysis: Rennes likely won’t stand in the way of letting him go, since he’s made only one league start in his debut season at the club.

Charles N’Zogbia looks set to finally get his wish to leave Newcastle, as the Magpies have agreed a fee with Wigan for him. (Sporting Life)

Analysis: I’m sure there’s one Newcastle fan out there who doesn’t want to see N’Zogbia leave. There has to be, right?

Leeds have told Fulham to more than double their offer for Fabian Delph to £6m after a £2.5m offer for their midfield sensation was turned down. (The Mirror)

Analysis: If they actually intend to sell him for £6m, that best be £6m up front with incentives and bonuses o’plenty and a sell-on fee. I know you can’t stunt someone’s development and ambition, and £6m for someone in League One is a pretty sizable sum, but it seems a little low unless there’s a lot more to the deal.

West Ham have signed Spartak Moscow midfielder Radoslav Kovac on loan for the rest of the season. (Sporting Life)

Analysis: Kovac won’t be counted on to be a star, but he will provide some helpful depth as West Ham attempt to consolidate a place in the top half of the table.

Bolton didn’t miss Kevin Nolan at all on Saturday as they scored a vital win over Tottenham in a 3-2 thriller at the Reebok, but they’re looking to strengthen their midfield nonetheless. Bids of £2m have been made for Portsmouth midfielder Sean Davis and Cardiff midfielder Joe Ledley, and a £3.5m bid could be made for Reading midfielder James Harper, whose potential move to Middlesbrough has fallen through. (The Mirror)

Analysis: They’ll likely need to triple their bid if they want a chance at Ledley, while Reading may be looking for a little more for Harper.

And Gary Megson has not quite given up on Miguel Veloso just yet, as Bolton’s bid for the Portuguese star has been upped to £14m.

Analysis: That’s still well below Sporting’s valuation of Veloso. Can they find another few million from somewhere? They might be better off trying to spend that money on a number of reinforcements, not all on one, but like I’ve said before, it doesn’t hurt to try to get someone of his caliber in your ranks.

Sunderland are chasing Liverpool’s Sami Hyypia and Manchester City’s Tal Ben Haim as he looks to bolster his back line. (The Times)

Analysis: Hyypia may be 35, but he’s still making regular starts for Liverpool, so Rafa Benitez may not be keen on letting him go. Ben Haim, however, is a much more realistic option, since his future at Manchester City already looks pretty bleak.

Motherwell striker Chris Porter has chosen helping Derby stave off relegation to League One over helping Cardiff fight for promotion to the Premier League, as the Wigan native is returning to England in a £400k deal. (Sporting Life)

Analysis: Derby have one of the lowest goal totals in the Championship, so signing a proven goal-getter like Porter will be big for their push to stay up.

Spain

So what does being a flop at a mid-table Premier League club earn you? If you’re West Ham defender Julien Faubert, it’s the loan move of all loan moves, one to Real Madrid. (The Mirror)

Analysis: I don’t think Faubert will be too upset about trading London for Madrid, but all the same, West Ham won’t be upset about it either.

If you’ve spotted a juicy rumor that we’ve missed, post it in the comments with a link to the source.

And if you want to keep up with the latest confirmed transfers from several of Europe’s top leagues, check out the updated January 2009 transfer lists.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

We’re into the final stretch of the January transfer window, and while signings have been relatively light up to this point, we’ll be seeing a lot more confirmed deals (and probably just as much speculation) over the next few days.

England

You can’t go that long in any transfer window these days without a Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid rumor, and today’s goodie is that Ronaldo has signed a long-term, £91m deal with Real. (The Times)

Analysis: No coincidence that such things come up after Ronaldo starts scoring again. Moving on…

Chelsea and Manchester City may enter the race for Carlos Tevez, if he doesn’t wind up agreeing a permanent deal with Manchester United. (The Times)

Analysis: All Carlos has to do is keep finding the net during and after Wayne Rooney’s absence, and Real Madrid, Chelsea, Manchester City, Inter, and everyone else can forget about signing him.

Andrei Arshavin is almost, almost, almost a Gunner finally, as he’s been granted a work permit for his move to Arsenal, and he’s agreed to pay part of the £15m transfer fee. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: Ah, but Or is he…

Arsene Wenger could have a little extra spending money by selling Kolo Toure to Manchester City, but he may want Micah Richards to be included in a swap deal (The Mirror). But, as it happens, he may be set to settle for a £15m deal that includes Richard Dunne (Daily Mail).

Analysis: City really fancy Toure, but do they fancy him enough to let Richards go? I’m sure Micah wouldn’t have any complaints if they did, but we’ll see.

Manchester City have had an improved, £18.5m offer for Blackburn star Roque Santa Cruz rejected. (The Times)

Analysis: If Blackburn weren’t striking out with finding a replacement, then this deal would likely still be on. I don’t know how keen Sam Allardyce would be on doing a cash + Darren Bent swap with Tottenham, but I just thought I’d throw that out there.

And apparently, so would Tottenham, because they have put forth exactly that offer. (Tribalfootball)

Analysis: The big question for Blackburn is this: Sell him for cash and a player who , or keep him until the summer, have someone pay his release fee, and have plenty of time and money to find a replacement?

Santa Cruz looks like option #1 for Harry Redknapp, since Liverpool have told Tottenham that if they want Robbie Keane back, they’ll have to stump up a refund to the tune of £20.3m, the fee that was agreed on when Keane moved from White Hart Lane to Anfield in the summer. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: The amusing thing for me here is that they haven’t even paid Tottenham all of the money that they owe them for Keane. I guess the other half would be hush money, eh?

Even though they haven’t agreed to sell Santa Cruz yet, Blackburn are going about as if their plans are to do so. They’ve struck out on a few targets from abroad, but now a bid for Portsmouth’s Peter Crouch could be in the works. (The Mirror)

Analysis: This one doesn’t seem likely, but it may be considered for financial reasons.

In the meantime though, Blackburn have completed a £2m deal to bring El-Hadji Diouf from Sunderland. (The Times)

Analysis: Diouf had a lot of success during his time at Bolton when Allardyce was at the helm, so maybe a reunion will help him rediscover his old form after a forgettable half season at Sunderland.

Newcastle have pulled off the surprise signing of Bolton captain Kevin Nolan for £4.5m. And before anymore Bolton fans get on Gary Megson, he seems to be as knowledgeable about it as most of the rest of us. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: Considering that Bolton are in the same battle for survival that Newcastle are, I really question this one.

Fulham are closing in on a loan deal for Derby midfielder Giles Barnes. (BBC Sport)

Analysis: Barnes got a lot of attention with some impressive displays in last season’s disastrous Premier League campaign before sustaining a knee injury last February that kept him out for much of this season. But, he’s a promising young player with Premier League experience, and if he can remain healthy through this loan spell, this could be a low-risk, high-reward move for Fulham.

Spain

Atletico Madrid are lining up a rather audacious bid for Liverpool’s Xabi Alonso. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: Nice try, but no.

Italy

Chelsea defender Branislav Ivanovic has agreed a five-year contract with Fiorentina, but the deal isn’t a certainty yet, as Chelsea may decide not to proceed with the deal. (Daily Mail)

Analysis: With Ricardo Carvalho out and John Terry’s propensity for getting injured as well, Big Phil could see Ivanovic as an important squad member for the remainder of the season.

France

Monaco are interested in Manchester City midfielder Gelson Fernandes. (Tribalfootball)

Analysis: Fernandes wants regular first-team football, and he’ll have a better chance of getting it at Monaco for the short and long term than he would at City.

If you’ve spotted a juicy rumor that we’ve missed, post it in the comments along with a link to the source.

And if you want to keep up with all of the latest confirmed transfers from several of Europe’s top leagues, check out our updated January 2009 transfer lists.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

We gave you the Greatest Teams of All Time. Now, it’s time for the worst! Without further ado, let’s go over the criteria that I used:

• Expectations are Everything. Look at it this way. If you’re from Luxembourg, and you know that the only way you’re qualifying for the Euros is if you’re hosting it, does that make you worse than a team like England, that failed to qualify for Euro 2008 despite having some of the highest-paid players in the world? I don’t think so.
• For clubs, I only considered top-flight level clubs. Otherwise, we’d be looking at regional sides and semi-pro clubs and the argument would never stop. Who cares whether FC United of Manchester would get beaten 10-0 by a club like Derby County? I sure don’t.
• For international sides, you had to have flopped in a major competition, like the World Cup, Gold Cup, Euros, Confederation Cup, etc., or failed to qualify despite being favored to do so. I didn’t consider teams that perennially failed to make a major competition, like Faroe Islands or Netherlands Antilles. Or this team, which has been labeled as the Worst Team Ever by most mainstream outlets. If you’re part of the East Timor team, where you can barely afford gear to play the game, does that make you worse than a pampered team of multi-millionaires that fails to qualify for a tournament that they had no right missing? I don’t think so.
• Teams that splashed a lot of money and underachieved were also considered. Once again, it’s all about expectations.

Worst Soccer Teams of All Time

Team: Tasmania 1900 Berlin, 1965-1966

Overview: Due to a mixture of Cold War politics, cheating, and luck, Tasmania 1900 Berlin, a low-level regional soccer team, found themselves in the German Bundesliga where they were immediately overmatched. Hertha Berlin had been relegated as a result of breaking the league’s rules regarding salary structure, and Cold War politics dictated that the replacement team come from Berlin. The Bundesliga decided to expand to 18 teams that season, as the teams scheduled to be relegated were allowed to stay in the top flight. Tasmania 1900 Berlin finished third in their Berlin regional league, but were allowed into the top flight because the top two teams, Tennis Borussia Berlin and Spandauer SV passed on the chance to play in the Bundesliga. Tasmania 1900 Berlin got the spot by default and wasted no time in showing why they were out of their league, as if anyone needed reminding. They limped back to the regional league the following year, and they couldn’t have been happier.

Lowlights: They hold a number of Bundesliga records, all of which are bad ones. They scored 15 goals while conceding an astonishing 108 goals, making the fact that they won 2 matches all the more impressive. They have the lowest point total in league history with 10 points on a record 28 defeats. They went a league-record 31 matches in a row without winning, lost a record 10 matches in a row, and are the only Bundesliga team to finish the season without an away win. They may have won two matches at home, but their home record was nothing to be proud about. They lost a record 8 straight at home, went a record 15 straight without a victory, and set a record for the worst loss at home, falling 9-0 to Meidericher SV. Their own fans were ashamed to put down their hard-earned money for a ticket to their games. Tasmania set a Bundesliga record for the smallest home crowd ever, drawing 827 on January 15, 1966 against Borussia Mönchengladbach. By the way, they played all their home matches in the 100,000 seat Olympic Stadium in Berlin. They did well against Kaiserslautern, though, going unbeaten against the 15th place winners.

“Accomplishments”: Gave up 108 goals in a season. Lost 28 matches. No truth to the rumor that Erich Mielke, head of the East German Stasi and notorious match-fixer, contacted Tasmania 1900 Berlin to play all their matches against his favorite team, Dynamo Berlin.

Team: Zaire, 1974

Overview: In 1974, Zaire became the first African nation to qualify for the World Cup and were treated like gods in their home country. They were showered with gifts and adulation from their country’s dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko, and were promised riches and fame upon returning home from the World Cup. However, when they reached the World Cup that year, they found out how quickly things could change.

Lowlights: Zaire were roundly disparaged for their performance in the World Cup, single-handedly ruining the reputation of African football. They gave up a record 14 goals without scoring a single goal. They were especially humiliated during their second group match against Yugoslavia, losing by a score of 9-0 in a match. They were ridiculed for appearing not to understand the rules of the game as one player broke off the defensive wall and booted a dead ball downfield before the opposing player could take his free kick. At the time, suspicion was laid at the feet of Zaire’s manager, Zoran Vidinic, who happened to be Yugoslavian. However, it turned out that the Zairian officials had pocketed the players’ wages and per diems. As such, the players didn’t make a cent during the World Cup, and in some cases, returned home without a penny to their names. They protested by failing to put forth their best effort against the Yugoslavs, and afterwards, they were threatened by Mobutu’s Presidential guards and told that they could not return to Zaire if they lost to Brazil by a score of 4-0 or worse. Luckily for the Zairians, they lost 3-0 to the defending champions and were allowed to go home.

“Accomplishments”: Only lost to Brazil by 3 goals. Presumably, it meant that Mobutu made a bunch at the sports book. Too bad the same thing couldn’t be said about the players…

Team: Catania, 1983-1984

Overview: Catania have won titles in every division in Italian football except for Serie A. Which is a little bit like Shaq saying that he’s won in every level of basketball except in the college and the pros (this was before he went to L.A., as I’m sure you can imagine). They do have one “accomplishment” in Serie A, however. In the 1983-1984 season, they pulled a Derby County and won a grand total of one league match, earning 12 points. Surprisingly, they still ended up with more points than Lecce from 93-94 (11 points). They defeated the team that finished in second-to-last place, Pisa. Maybe that means that Pisa was really the worst team of the year…

Lowlights: Catania lost to Fiorentina by a score of 5-0, and to Inter Milan by a score of 6-0. They didn’t give up more than 2 goals in any match at home, including a 2-2 thriller against league runner-up Roma. Future Chelsea and Juventus manager, Claudio Ranieri, played for this Catania club, as did Brazilian international Pedrinho. Clearly, they could have used a few more guys like those two.

“Accomplishments”: One win. That speaks for itself.

Team: U.S. National Team, 1998

Overview: The U.S. was riding high after making it to the second round in 1994 and were looking to build on their success. The team boasted a nice mixture of veterans from 1994 (like Tom Dooley, Eric Wynalda, Alexi Lalas, Roy Wegerle, Tab Ramos, and Marcelo Balboa), youngsters making a name for themselves in the nascent MLS (like Eddie Pope, Frankie Hedjuk, Brian McBride, and Joe-Max Mooore), and non-Americans who became naturalized citizens (David Regis, Preki). American hopes rose and fell with two European-based players: Claudio Reyna, the best player the United States had ever produced, was the kind of European-based veteran that the team was counting on to provide playmaking ability and leadership in midfield, and Kasey Keller, who was already establishing himself as one of the top goalkeepers in the world. The U.S. were drawn in a tough group, but they were confident going into the tournament. They knew what was at stake, and knew that a strong showing would do wonders for MLS and American football.

Lowlights: Coach Steve Sampson was clearly in over his head. He feuded with team skipper John Harkes, and dismissed him from the team right before the start of the tournament (ironically enough, Sampson had named Harkes “Captain for Life” a few months earlier). He had poor relations with other veterans, like Lalas (who didn’t play a single minute in the tournament), Wynalda, and Ramos. Sampson’s incompetence extended to tactics, as he insisted on using a 3-6-1 formation, even though he only had one midfielder (Reyna) capable of keeping possession, his lone forward (McBride or Wynalda) wasn’t skilled enough to hold things down on his own up front, and his defenders (especially the aging Dooley) weren’t good enough to deal with the opposing offensive players. Reyna’s reputation really took a hit, as Americans were counting on him to be their offensive playmaker, even though his skills were really more suited to being a holding midfielder. You could argue that one reason he never got the respect that he deserved from the American press was because of his poor performance in France. American apologists could point to the fact that their opening match against Germany was much closer than the scoreline indicated, and that both Reyna and Hedjuk nearly scored. However, a humiliating loss to long-time political nemesis, Iran, sealed their fate. They were the first team to be eliminated from the World Cup in 1998, and were forced to play for nothing other than pride in their final group match against Yugoslavia (which they also lost, btw). A few days after their elimination, Steve Sampson resigned before he could be fired.

“Accomplishments”: 32nd out of 32 at the 1998 World Cup. Gave Iran bragging rights. Made me cry.

Team: France, 2002

Overview: France were riding high as the result of an excellent four-year stretch of dominance during which time they won the 1998 World Cup and Euro 2000. Zinedine Zidane established himself as the greatest player of his generation, while French mainstays Thierry Henry, Patrick Vieira, Lillian Thuram, Marcel Desailly, Didier Deschamps, and Laurent Blanc enhanced their own considerable reputations. Going into the 2002 World Cup, France looked ready to add to their legend and got some help from the lottery gods as they were drawn into a fairly tame group consisting of Denmark, Uruguay, and debutante Senegal. The knock-out round was a given, and it seemed as if nothing could stop France from making a deep run in the World Cup, possibly even winning it.

Lowlights: Turns out, France were doomed before the World Cup even started. Zidane suffered a thigh injury during France’s final pre-World Cup friendly and France’s hopes of repeating went down the toilet. Senegal, playing its first World Cup match ever, shocked France and won by a score of 1-0. France kept their chances of advancing alive with a disappointing scoreless draw with Uruguay, and rushed Zidane back, prematurely, to face Denmark in the final group match. France, with their hobbled talisman barely able to run, let alone create goal scoring chances for his suddenly incompetent teammates, went out with a whimper, losing to Denmark by a score of 2-0. France ended up making history, but not the kind that they wanted. They became the very first defending champion to fail to score a single goal.

“Accomplishments”: Worst World Cup defense ever. Showed how valuable one player can be. Gave Senegal something to cheer about.

Team: Real Madrid, 2003-2004

Overview: During Real Madrid’s Galacticos policy, results and trophies took a backseat to merchandise sales. On-the-field chemistry was treated as heresy, with management frequently making decisions about what players would get playing time based on their marketability. Nowhere was this more apparent than with management’s decision to let Claude Makelele, the unheralded defensive midfielder who was seen as the heart of the team by the likes of Zidane and Figo, leave in a salary dispute, while taking on David Beckham, a one-man marketing machine whose best days as a player were clearly behind him. Real Madrid unveiled their latest toy right before a tour of Asia, and Brand Beckham took Asia by storm, nearly making back every cent that Real Madrid had spent for him. Beckham’s arrival also led to the departure of well-respected and popular winger, Steve McManaman. McManaman, who ended up having a decent career in Madrid, much to the consternation of the English media, took some parting shots at Real Madrid, accusing them of turning into Disneyland (which proved fairly prophetic). Becks wasn’t the only high-priced star. Real Madrid had broken the transfer record to get Luis Figo from archrivals Barcelona in 2000. They broke that record a year later to get Zinedine Zidane from Juventus (even though Zidane more-or-less played the same position as Figo). Ronaldo followed in 2002 to play up front with mainstay Raul.

Lowlights: Galacticos or no Galacticos, you would think that a team with Raul, Ronaldo, Zidane, Figo, Beckham, and Roberto Carlos would be good enough to win at least one trophy, right? You would be wrong. During the 2003-2004, Real Madrid finished fourth in La Liga, forcing the team to qualify for next season’s Champions League. Real were shocked by AS Monaco in the Quarter-Finals of the Champions League, and they lost in the Finals of the Copa del Rey. Manager Carlos Querioz, who was fired after the season, complained of being denied players by management (notably Pepe, who was available for 2 million Euros) because they didn’t “sell enough shirts” (Pepe eventually went to Real Madrid for the bargain-basement price of 30 million Euros). Real Madrid responded to their setback by opening up the checkbook in the offseason, acquiring Michael Owen, Walter Samuel, and Jonathan Woodgate while making an audacious bid for Arsenal captain Patrick Vieira. Real Madrid went trophyless again the following season, finishing second in the league and making it to the Quarterfinals of the Champions League and Copa del Rey. They’ve seemed to have put the Galacticos Era behind them, but there are indications that it could be on the way back. After all, they’ve vowed to do everything short of rename their stadium after Cristiano Ronaldo.

“Accomplishments”: 4th in La Liga, Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League, Finalist in Copa del Rey. 1st in shirt sales.

Team: Sunderland, 2002-2003

Overview: If Manchester United have been the dominant club of the Premier League era, then Sunderland could very well be the complete opposite. They’ve been relegated three times, and have set the record for least amount of points in Premiership history on two separate occasions. The first time was in 2002-2003 when they limped out of the Premiership with a mere four league victories and a record-low 19 points. They actually had some talent, including striker Kevin Phillips, who once won the Golden Boot with 30 Premiership goals. Unfortunately for Sunderland, Phillips only managed 6 league goals,

Lowlights: They did well against league champion Manchester United that season. They drew 1-1 in August, clawing back from a 1-0 deficit to earn a point (future Sunderland manager Roy Keane was sent off in that match, ironically). In the reverse fixture, they led 1-0 for most of the match on a Juan Veron own goal before giving up two late United goals to lose, 2-1. They beat United 7-0 in the League Cup — third-division squad Cambridge United, that is (although they did beat Arsenal in a League Cup tie before falling to Sheffield United in the next round). Otherwise, it was a pretty dismal season characterized by a then-record 15 league defeats in a row, as well as a whopping one point taken in matches against West Brom and West Ham, the two teams that were relegated along with Sunderland that season.

“Accomplishments”: Worst Premiership Team ever for three whole seasons.

Teams: Sunderland, 2005-2006

Overview: As bad as Sunderland’s 2002-2003 season was, it looked like Manchester United’s Treble winning season compared to their 2005-2006 season. Coming off their rousing win in the Championship the previous season, Sunderland “improved” on their 2002-2003 record-setting standard by slumping to new lows in terms of wins and points, records that would stand until Derby County came along in 2007-2008. They won three matches and earned a mere 15 points, winning their first league match on September 25 (2-0 against Middlesbrough) and not winning another one until January 21, 2006 (1-0 against West Brom).

Lowlights: Manager Mick McCarthy was fired in March after failing to win a single home game and replaced by Kevin Ball, who eventually guided Sunderland to their first, and only, home win of the season: a 2-1 win against Fulham on the second-to-last week of the season. They also got demolished in the Tyne Wear Derby, losing to Newcastle twice by a total score of 7-3. Sunderland did earn a point at Old Trafford, holding United to a 0-0 draw, so it wasn’t all bad.

“Accomplishments”: Were the worst Premiership team ever until 2007-2008 (see below). Went back to Championship, where they won the 2006-2007 title under new manager, Roy Keane.

Team: England, 2008

Overview: England weren’t among the favorites for the Euro 2008 title, but they were certainly expected to qualify. They had a tough qualification group, but with the likes of John Terry, Steven Gerrard, Rio Ferdinand, Wayne Rooney, and Frank Lampard, they should have been able to sleepwalk into the tournament. They had performed consistently in previous international competitions, losing in controversial fashion against Portugal in the Quarterfinals of both Euro 2004 and the 2006 World Cup. Highly regarded Steve McClaren (it seems strange to say this now, but at the time, he was a rising star in managerial circles) took the reins as manager and committed one misstep after another. He tried to establish himself as someone willing to break with the past by cutting a number of respected veterans from the team, notably Sol Campbell, David James, and former skipper David Beckham, only to undercut himself by bringing back Beckham and Campbell when England struggled during their qualification matches. He insisted on using a 3-5-2 formation, which didn’t suit his players, most of who were used to playing some variation of the 4-4-2. He insisted on playing Lampard and Gerrard together, even though it was clear that their midfield partnership wasn’t working. And, of course, who can forget the image of McClaren standing under an umbrella during that final match at Wembley against Croatia? If there were ever a more fitting image for a man as maligned as McClaren, that was definitely it.

Lowlights: Paul Robinson was so bad in goal (and committed a horrendous howler against Croatia when he completely missed Gary Neville’s back-pass and gifted the other side a goal) that McClaren actually decided to play untested Scott Carson in England’s single biggest game of the year, a lose-and-you’re-out date at Wembley against Croatia. Carson committed a terrible howler of his own that led to Croatia’s 3-2 victory, knocking England out. Most people defended the move, pointing out Robinson’s terrible form. However, they forgot about the fact that McClaren could have nipped the whole thing in the bud by going with David James, which is exactly what Fabio Capello did once he took over. For some reason, McClaren refused to use Owen Hargreaves, his most seasoned holding midfielder, instead sticking with inexperienced Gareth Barry. People point to the Croatia match as where it all came apart for England, but they could have been out of it before that match. If it weren’t for Israel shocking Russia, England would have been eliminated by the time they met Croatia at Wembley, which makes their collapse all the more pitiful, in retrospect. And, of course, there was the whole umbrella thing.

“Accomplishments”: Missed Euro 2008. Killed Steve McClaren’s career. Finally put an end to the Gerrard/Lampard midfield experiment — oh wait…

Team: Derby County, 2007-2008 Premiership

Overview: Derby County had finished third in the Championship the previous season, and were promoted to the Premiership after winning a playoff against West Bromwich Albion. They splashed some cash and acquired two Americans in Benny Feilhaber and Eddie Lewis (the latter of which had done very well in spells at Preston North End and Leeds United). They also broke their transfer record and acquired striker Robert Earnshaw from Norwich for £ 3.5 million. After a poor start to their season, during which time they won one out of their first twenty league matches (including a 6-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool, a 5-0 butt-kicking by Arsenal and that powerhouse West Ham, and a 4-1 squeaker against Manchester United), they threw around some money during the January transfer window, bringing in eight players, including midfielder Robbie Savage from Blackburn and goalkeeper and former Manchester United “legend” Roy Carroll from Rangers. Let’s be diplomatic and say that those reinforcements didn’t quite work out.

Lowlights: Based on the numbers, Derby were the worst team to ever play in the Premiership. They were officially relegated by the end of March, the earliest any team had ever been relegated in the history of the Premiership. Their eleven league points was the lowest in Premiership history. They only won one Premiership match all season, a 1-0 win against Newcastle in the middle of September (in retrospect, maybe the F.A. should investigate that match to make sure it wasn’t fixed). Their big-ticket striker, Earnshaw, scored a whopping one goal for Derby before being benched (although it as still a better return that what Newcastle got with Alan Smith) Their lone highlight of the season was getting past Championship side Sheffield Wednesday in the 3rd Round of the F.A. Cup (so what if it was in a shoot-out in a replay?) before losing in the 4th Round, 4-1, to Championship side Preston North End. They did play Manchester United tough during the reverse fixture, losing a hard-fought 1-0 battle during which time Roy Carroll made United fans wonder who the heck this guy was and what happened to the Roy Carroll they knew and loved. For manager Paul Jewell, what happened on the pitch wasn’t the only embarrassment he suffered that season. A lurid sex tape featuring him engaged tying up and spanking a woman not named Mrs. Jewell surfaced in March, 2008. Unfortunately, this tape marked the only time anyone from Derby delivered a spanking during the entirety of the 2007-2008 season.

“Accomplishments”: Worst team in the history of the Premiership. Nearly took a point from Manchester United. Paul Jewell replaced the guy who played Screech as the person you least wanted to see in a sex tape. Let Eddie Lewis go to the L.A. Galaxy, which might have actually been a step up for him.

Honorable Mention:

Team: Inter Milan, 1999-2000

Overview: Inter Milan were sick and tired of their trophy drought and they weren’t going to take it anymore. They had lagged far behind their Italian rivals, AC Milan and Juventus in terms of domestic and European silverware (although Inter did win the UEFA Cup on three occasions), and were itching to get back to the elite of Serie A. In 1995, Massimo Moratti took over and promised results, and he blazed a path that would eventually be followed by the likes of Tottenham and Manchester City. He opened up his checkbook and went on a spending spree. He bought Ronaldo from Barcelona for a then-record 30.5 million Euros in 1997. He then broke the record two years later by acquiring Italian striker Christian Vieri from Lazio for 48.3 million Euros. Despite tying up so much money in two players, Inter promised big things in 1999-2000. They didn’t qualify for European play, so the argument was they could concentrate on domestic honors. Anything less than a Scudetto would be seen as a disappointment.

Lowlights: Well, it was certainly a disappointment. Ronaldo hurt his knee early in the season and didn’t play again until late in the season, when he reinjured his knee after playing a mere seven minutes in the Coppa Italia Final. Vieri had a mere 13 goals in the league and the club slumped to a fourth place finish in the league. The following season, Inter signed Robbie Keane (because they didn’t have enough money tied up in their strike force), and were even worse, finishing fifth and missing out on the Champions League. Ronaldo regained his form sufficiently to force a sale to Real Madrid in 2002, while Vieri left in 2005.

“Accomplishments”: They almost won the Coppa Italia in 2000. That’s something, right?

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The theme in this season’s Carling Cup semifinals is Premier League vs Championship, haves vs havenots (wrt Derby’s owners, they’re not going to play in the Premier League next season or have a lush new 60k seater in 3 years, are they?) and as the spinners love to spin it (admittedly so do we), David v Goliath.

It helps that one of the underdogs has already beaten 3 Premier League sides, all teams currently above their opponents tonight at White Hart Lane. Tottenham may be reigning champions and pound for million pound better than Burnley, but with the ‘revival’ nonsense done away with they are unlikely to be tougher opponents than Arsenal or Chelsea.

On the other hand, it’s hard to see Burnley do a Turkey (in results if not the manner they were achieved) for longer than the pseudo-Europeans themselves. While the second leg is at home, playing it out over two legs gives Tottenham 90 more minutes to recover from their mistakes, or 90 minutes to protect their advantage. Either way, that could be 90 minutes too much.

At Pride Park the season hinges on the barest of threads and while Derby go into Wednesday’s game as guaranteed to lose (the tie if not the leg), it’s much more lopsided than the stats would suggest. Derby struggled to beat non-league Forest Green on Saturday and while caretaker manager Hutchings may ring in a few changes, the step up in class, even considering that Manchester United will play a weakened side to give squad and younger players more time and experience while resting their stars, is too great for Derby.

Over 90 minutes – maybe they could sneak through a late goal. Over two legs? I have a better chance of sleeping with Gemma Atkinson this year. Hmmm…that almost makes me want United to lose.

Predictions:

Tottenham v Burnley – 1st leg: Tottenham

Derby County v Manchester United – 1st leg: Manchester United

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

History could be made tonight as Burton Albion go after a record-breaking 12th consecutive win in the Blue Square Premier in a game that may well underline their credentials as the team to beat in the league this year.

But the match against fellow promotion hopefuls Torquay United isn’t the only concern for Brewers fans. Derby County are after their boss, Nigel Clough, who, in ten years, has guided Burton from the depths of the Southern League to within touching distance of league status. It’s no surprise that he’s a man in demand.

Young Big ‘Ead? Not quite

With Clough junior now starting to get linked with high profile jobs (Nottingham Forest were rumoured to be interested, before plumping for Billy Davies), the inevitable comparisons with his late father will undoubtedly start. But what they have in common as managers, beyond the family surname, is a single-mindedness and an ability to put together teams that others may consider less than the sum of their parts.

Unlike dad, Nigel is rarely outspoken and comes across as thoughtful and polite in interviews, which are usually more focused on Burton’s next opponents than any kind of Mourinho-esque proclamation or Ferguson-style mind games.

Clough is also a devoted family man and has frequently said that he enjoys the Burton job because it gives him time to spend with his two young children. The setup at the club is such that it allows the manager to pick up and drop off the kids from school, and enjoy a normal family life away from the glare of the media.

The 42-year-old has also, in the past, said he is in no hurry to go to a bigger club and still has plenty of time of his side should he want to move. Nor should he need to as Burton chairman Ben Robinson has often said Clough has a job for life at the club in recognition of his work with the Brewers.

And if Clough does decide to leave, he won’t be the first Burton manager to manage at a higher level. Both Neil Warnock and his dad’s old right-hand man, Peter Taylor, have occupied the dugout in the Midlands town.

Ten years to build success

In October, Clough Jr celebrated ten years in charge of Burton, during which he took them away from Southern League relegation candidates to Conference table-toppers, although the success hasn’t always been instant.

Clough pitched up at Burton in 1998, aged 32, having been forced to retire from the professional game due to a degenerative heel injury. His career spanned spells at Nottingham Forest, Liverpool and Manchester City and took in 131 goals for Forest alone, as well as 14 England caps.

But rather than leap straight into a job with a league club, Clough accepted the offer from Burton Albion to take up the reins as player-manager (the part-time schedule meant he could still play) and save them from relegation from the Southern League. It was a gamble, as Clough had no previous management experience, but it was also the highest profile appointment in the club’s history.

Clough then started building a strong and successful side that finished runners-up for two consecutive years, while delivering the Southern League Cup along the way. Then, in 2001, came Burton’s most successive season under Clough.

Due to a geographical shuffle of the non-league pyramid, Burton found themselves in the Unibond Premier League. But the swapping of regions proved no obstacle for the Brewers as they ran away as champions, setting a record points total and scoring over 100 goals in the process. Conference football – the club’s highest position ever – beckoned.

It’s fair to say Clough’s opening seasons in the Conference weren’t a runaway success. Despite being touted as the next big thing in management – and the club being many people’s tips for the top – Burton’s progress was steady and unspectacular.

The first two seasons saw the Brewers flirt with the relegation places as the side adjusted to life in a higher division. But Burton’s board didn’t panic and slowly Clough started to build momentum as his side finished steadily higher up the Conference each year.

The Man United moment

In 2006, the Brewers got what every non-league team dreams of when they drew Manchester United at home in the FA Cup. Like Exeter City the season before, Burton held United to a goalless draw before losing the replay but keeping their pride very much intact.

More than the result, the draw gave Burton a financial windfall that has undoubtedly helped the stable, well-run club to their position today. What’s more, it brought Clough to the attention of the national press again and had many tipping him for a big move sooner rather than later.

Instead, he stayed at Burton, guiding them to their best-ever Conference finish of 9th. Last season, in keeping with the club making small strides each year, the Brewers finished in the playoffs for the first time ever, losing to Cambridge United in the semi-finals.

This year, Clough threatens to go one better. They sit 13 points clear at the top of the Blue Square Premier (although second-place Histon have three games in hand, while Torquay and Kidderminster both have two) and, at the moment, cannot stop losing.

The man of the moment

It was inevitable that Clough, with his famous surname, top-flight career and relative success and experience in management (he’s got seven more years in the hotseat than Paul Ince) that bigger clubs would come calling and some may see it as fate that two teams forever associated with his father both had vacancies while Clough’s stock is highest.

Forest now have a manager but it appears Nigel Clough is number-one target for Derby County, where his father etched himself into Rams folklore by winning the league in 1972. Other names in the frame are caretaker Chris Hutchings, Wrexham boss Dean Saunders, and another offspring of a famous manager, Darren Ferguson.

There’s no doubting Clough would be a popular choice among Rams fans, although the Burton boss has stronger ties to Forest than he does to rivals Derby.

But Burton have already said they won’t stand in the way if he wanted to leave – and Clough has admitted the job does interest him.

But, like his dad, Clough is a canny operator and with Burton now the leading contender for the Conference title, there’s still every chance he’ll stay with the Midlands club and attempt to finish what he started away from the glare of the public eye.

With Derby having seven managers in as many years and Forest a more modest five, there’s every chance the opportunity will come up again. At 42, Clough has time on his side, which is more than can be said for Derby right now.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News