The draw for the group stages of this season’s Europa League has thrown up a number of difficult and interesting challenges for England’s representatives, with qualification through to the knock-out stages far from assured. This term it will be up to Tottenham, Fulham, Stoke and Birmingham to do the nation proud, and test their wits against some cultured European opposition.

Tottenham were drawn in Group A, and have been given one opponent on their doorstep, and two on the other side of the continent. Shamrock Rovers, Rubin Kazan and PAOK FC will look to further frustrate Spurs fans after their slow start to the campaign, and will have taken comfort in Harry Redknapp’s men being outplayed and beaten by both Manchester clubs in the space of six days.

The Russians will provide the most difficult opponent, and were unlucky not to make the Champions League; Kurban Berdyev’s side lost out narrowly to Lyon in the qualifiers. The Tsentrainyi Stadion is a hostile environment to enter, and a host of Russian internationals and familiar face Obafemi Martins will make the away tie in particular increasingly difficult. PAOK are not the force of past decades, but, like the Russians will make the away leg uncomfortable. The Irish champions will be sure to put up a fight in the emerald isle, but may find similar treatment to that distributed to Hearts in the qualifying round forthcoming at White Hart Lane.

Stoke have arguably got the most difficult task in front of them, with their fans looking for all inclusive holidays in the far-fetched lands of Israel, Turkey and Ukraine; Maccabi Tel Aviv, Besiktas and Dinamo Kiev lie in wait. Tony Pulis will be happy he has Wilson Palacios and Peter Crouch at his disposal, in what should be a tricky campaign. The Turks have European calibre and experience, and will look to capitalise on Tony Pullis’ outfit’s lack of past action in the continent. Stoke’s direct style of play will be countered by a technically gifted midfield trio of ex-Real Madrid playmaker Guti and Portugal international duo Ricardo Quaresma and Simao Sabrosa.

Kiev are top of the Ukranian Premier League currently have attacking options that could be the downfall of the side from the Britannia, with Andriy Shevchenko and international team-mate Andriy Yarmolenko sure to cause Ryan Shawcorss and company problems. Tel Aviv meanwhile will be the least threatening member of the trio, but the distance to the away leg will ensure a win is not guaranteed.

Fulham have a mixed group comprising Twente, OB Odense and Wisla Krakow. The Dutch side crashed out of the Champions League qualifiers at the hands of Benfica, but have a strong team; despite this a deadline day move saw Bryan Ruiz swap De Grolsch Veste for Craven Cottage, which could be the difference between the sides. OB were unlucky not to make the group stage of the top tournament, as they were eliminated by Spaniards Villarreal, despite winning the first leg. Krakow offer up an unpredictable element, but should not be underestimated as they are Poland’s current champions.

Birmingham may find the going tough especially with a squad depleted after relegation and will most likely focus on their domestic fixtures in an attempt to make it back to the English top flight, rather than a European adventure. Club Brugge and last year’s defeated finalists Braga should be too strong for The Championship side, who will target the fixtures against Slovenian outfit Maribor as winnable games.

The English sides will travel to the four corners of the continent in this year’s group stage, have drawn difficult opponents, and will have to be at the top of their game if they are to progress.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Looking beyond the city rivalry, there’s plenty of ammunition for Villa fans to suggest that ‘Big Eck’ is not the right man for the job.

Alex McLeish has won just 26% of his games as a Premier League manager, so far no Aston Villa manager with more than five games in charge has posted such a low percentage. Of the seven permanent managers to have held the post since the introduction of the Premier League, John Gregory boasts the best win percentage (41.22%) while Graham Taylor endured the worst spell of the seven – the former England manager won just 29.41% of his PL games at Villa.

Aston Villa managers in Premier League history

Managers with more than five Premier League games in charge

Comparing McLeish’s record with the PL career records of the two most recent Villa managers – Gerard Houllier and Martin O’Neill – again does not make for good reading for the former Rangers supremo. McLeish’s 26% win record is inferior to those of both his potential predecessors at Villa Park.

McLeish compared to Gerard Houllier and Martin O’Neill – Premier League

It would be unfair to judge the Scotsman only on his Premier League record, however. McLeish successfully oversaw promotion to the top flight with the Blues and was given the difficult task of integrating them into the Premier League, something he successfully achieved in 2009/10, and despite relegation this season, he also lead Birmingham City to Carling Cup glory; their first major trophy since 1963.

Alex McLeish’s managerial career – all competitions

How do you rate Alex McLeish as a manager? Do you think Villa’s owners are genuinely settling for mid-table obscurity by selling their top stars and bringing in a manager specifically to ‘maximise’ limited resources?

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Alex McLeish has kept his job at St. Andrew’s, despite Birmingham’s last-day relegation to the Championship, but has been told by the board that he must lead the side back to the Premiership.

The Blues went down, due to a defeat against Tottenham at White Hart Lane and other results not going their way, and there were rumours that Birmingham City owner Carson Yueng would sack the Scotsman. However, a club statement issued by acting Blues chairman Peter Pannu has quashed rumours of Alex McLeish’s exit, as long as he leads the Midlands outfit back to the Premier League.

In response to the criticism that owner Carson Yueng did not give ‘Big Eck’ enough backing in the transfer market to improve the squad, Pannu said:

The board will take stock of what went wrong this season despite Carson Yeung’s promised injection of £40m in funds – not £80m as the media wrongly assumed – and will closely discuss and implement appropriate procedures to ensure a speedy return to the top flight.

A lack of top quality players seemed to be the big issue for Alex McLeish’s side this season, with the biggest signing coming from goalkeeper Ben Foster to bolster a strong defence. When Scott Dann picked up a hamstring injury in the League Cup triumph in January, McLeish’s defence buckled without the solid central defensive partnership of Dann and Roger Johnson and their decline ensued, slipping down the table and into the relegation battle where they remained.

McLeish staying at the club will offer a huge boost to the Blues fans, who will wonder what new players will be brought in to the club and who will exit. There are a number of players whose contracts are expiring, midfielders Lee Bowyer and Seb Larsson and defender Stephen Carr included, who will surely leave St. Andrew’s for pastures new and there is rumoured interest from Liverpool in central defender Scott Dann.

Yueng has to give McLeish transfer funds and trust the manager with the decisions and not get involved in the dealings within the squad, because McLeish is a good tactical manager and given a correct transfer budget and the ability to bring in some better quality of players, Birmingham City will be a top flight club sooner rather than later.

In 2007, Birmingham City went down to the Championship and McLeish proved his managerial qualities by bouncing them back up to the top flight in the following season, so the credentials are there for the owners and the fans to trust in the 52 year old Scotsman’s ability.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

This weekend, three of Europe’s more famous clubs – Sampdoria, Frankfurt and West Ham – were condemned to the second divisions of their respective countries. Perhaps the smallest reverberations came with West Ham’s demotion: the Hammers struggled all season long under a hangdog, lame-dog manager and if the same the lack of spirit shown by several senior West Ham figures is reproduced next year, it could indicate a lengthy stay for the club in the second tier. Popular expectation is that the squad will be gutted as several key players depart: Football Writers’ Association Player of the Year Scott Parker, the out of contract Matthew Upson and goalkeeper Robert Green are likely to lead the exodus.

But all is not lost: they still plan to take over the Olympic Stadium after 2012 and Messrs Gold & Sullivan have committed to funding the club through it’s lower-league jaunt. With such basic groundwork established reasonably, West Ham now face the prospect of rebounding straight back into the Premiership. There are several steps that the Hammers should follow in order to make their second-tier spell a short one – here’s a Moe handful of suggestions as to how the Hammers can escape the Championship sooner rather than later.

1. Sign a manager with experience and patience

Chris Hughton, while only having eighteen months’ worth of head-man experience, not only has a smart and lucid football brain, but is used to the pressures of having to succeed on a threadbare budget. While Newcastle United threatened to go Chernobyl last season after being relegated, he successfully kept the dressing room together, made shrewd Championship-elite signings and encouraged the club’s youth to prosper. He fully entrusted Andy Carroll with the centre-forward role and helped develop Nile Ranger into a player of promise. The Understated One is also used to dealing with larger-than-life owners, having spent sixteen months under the devious direction of Mike Ashley and Derek Lambias.

Other possibilities include Sam Allardyce (though whether he’d develop the youth or even be willing to take a second-divison job is questionable) or Steve McLaren.

2. Expunge the deadwood

While Pablo Barrera hasn’t lived up to post-World Cup expectations, he still could prove a good player. This is in direct contrast to many of ex-manager Avram Grant’s transfer dealings, remarkable only in their ineffectiveness. None of Winston Reid, Frederic Piquionne, Robbie Keane or Wayne Bridge lived up to expectation while Victor Obinna was as spotty a painter with the DT’s.

As for Kieron Dyer, Julien Faubert, Benni McCarthy or Luis Boa Morte? Puh-lease. While Obinna, Keane and Bridge are all loan signings and (most probably) will not be retained, the squad will need pruning in order to refresh and strengthen again. The squad wasn’t the worst in the Premier League so Hammer fans should start 2011-12 with expectations of at least a playoff finish.

3. Expurgate any useless footballing philosophies

It’s been a West Ham tradition for years to play attacking football, replete with creative wingers and forwards like Paolo Di Canio and John Hartson able to capitalise on their jinking runs. The West Ham board’s first priority should now not be footballin gstyle but to yo-yo from the second tier to the first. To do so may require dispensing with any preconceived notions about “the West Ham way” and focus on results. This comes down to giving a manager who achieves results – Allardyce, anyone? – a free hand to implement his tactics, a measure of trust of which Gold and Sullivan have some repute.

4. Light a fire under the forwards

While Cole’s struggled through a fair-to-poor season and appears unlikely to be at Upton Park next year, if he is he could dominate the Championship. The same applies to Demba Ba. While Newcastle United Kevin Nolan (and Andy Carroll, Jonas Gutierrez and Fabricio Coloccini) did it last year with startling success and for the Hammers to not only retrieve EPL status but remain there, they’ll need goals. Sears has the potential and Cole has the comination of size and speed to become lethal in the Championship. Piquionne, if he’s not sold, could also dominate in English football’s lower reaches. Ba’s seven goals in 10 Premiership starts are encouraging figures.  If Danny Graham can  muster 23 goals playing at up-tempo Watford, then a possible combination of Ba, Cole and Sears should combine for forty.

5. Get value for exiting players

Scott Parker deserves better than the Championship, so he’ll go. He’ll have plenty of suitors, too. Robert Green would be an upgrade over at least half a dozen Premeirship custodians so is likely to sought after as well. Any influx of cash could be directed in several ways – but is likely to find it’s way either into reducing the club’s remarkable debt or investment in the squad. All of Ba, Tomkins and Cole will have suitors as well.  The secret to success – and admittedly this is easier said than done – is to pry top-tier divisional talent away from mid-table Championship squads.  Stick to this principle and they’re on the right track.  Sort of.  The Guardian has penned an interesting piece on this very subject.

6. Free the club’s youth

All of Sears, Zavon Hines, Frank Nouble, Junior Stanislas, James Tomkins and Jordan Spence came through the club’s youth academy. All played some part in this Premiership season or seasons past, albeit relatively small roles. They now have a chance to cement a position in the West Ham first-team squad, for better or worse.

The only recent yo-yo promotions have been by Newcastle, Birmingham City and West Bromwich Albion, none of whom invested heavily upon relegation.  While this crop of youngsters aren’t currently Premiership standard, they all have the ability to be that good – the chance to really stamp a position as their own should excite many of Hammers’ youth.

For more commentary and analysis, shoot across to Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The English Premier League enters a pivotal phase this weekend, with several matches that could decide the fate of the title, the European place(s) and relegation spots in the next 4 days (if you include Tuesday’s match between Manchester City and Tottenham).

Last weekend we looked at the Castrol EPL Predictor and used it to predict results for all 10 Premier Leagues from last weekend. Let’s look at how the Castrol EPL Predictor fared:

Last Weekend’s Results

Actual match results followed by Castrol EPL Predictions in brackets)

Wigan 1-1 Everton (Everton win at 51%)
West Brom 2-1 Aston Villa (West Brom win at 43%)
Sunderland 0-3 Fulham (Sunderland win at 38%)
Chelsea 2-1 Tottenham (Chelsea win at 75%)
Blackpool 0-0 Stoke (Blackpool win at 44%)
Blackburn 1-0 Bolton (Blackburn win at 51%)
Manchester City 2-1 West Ham (Man City win at 61%)
Liverpool 3-0 Newcastle United (Liverpool win at 65%)
Birmingham 1-1 Wolves (Birmingham win at 51%)
Arsenal 1-0 Manchester United (Arsenal win at 40%)

There’s two ways to look at this: one is look at absolute result predictions – i.e. how many results did the Castrol Predictor get right – 6 out of 10. The other way to look at is to consider that these predictions are actually percentages assigned to each outcome (win, draw, loss), and then look at how the actual results stacked up against the Castrol EPL Predictor’s percentages.

For example: Arsenal v Manchester United only had a 34% chance of United winning, or 66% chance of United not winning.

Applying this to the incorrect results from the first method, we see:

Wigan 1-1 Everton (Wigan to not lose at 49%)
Sunderland 0-3 Fulham (Sunderland to not lose at 66%)
Blackpool 0-0 Stoke (Blackpool to not lose at 69%)
Birmingham 1-1 Wolves (Birmingham to not lose at 78%)

In two results (Blackpool and Birmingham, the prediction was highly accurate. In one result (Wigan v Everton), the prediction was accurate but it was an evenly balanced spread with all three results equally likely. In the fourth result, Sunderland v Fulham, the prediction was way off the actual result, and this is reflected in the fact that Fulham’s away win to Sunderland came as the biggest shock of the weekend results.

So, if you look at these predictions strictly in terms of win percentages, the Castrol EPL Predictor got 6 out of 10 predictions correct.

If you look at these predictions in terms of overall percentages and the likelihood of home teams not losing, the Castrol EPL Predictor got 8 out of 10 predictions correct, with one call one the line and the last one a surprise result.

Castrol Weekend Predictions

This weekend’s matches as predicted by Castrol EPL Predictor:

Talking Points:

Premier League Final Standings Predictions

Here’s a look at the end-of-season Premier League table as predicted by Castrol:

Talking Points:

We’ll be following up with match previews for the big games this weekend – United v Chelsea, Everton v City, plus the relegation battle and the race for 5th place between Tottenham and Liverpool.

Make sure you look at the Castrol EPL Match Predictor in more detail as it’s an excellent statistical tool for predicting matchups between two Premier League teams as well as our previous Castrol EPL Predictor article for an explanation of how the Castrol EPL Predictions work.

Premier League Betting

And if you’re a betting man, I recommend using our free £25 bet to back Castrol’s predicted results on Betfair. 6 out of 10 (or 8 out of 10 if you bet on a team not losing) is a good set of results to put ‘free’ money on (and you’ll be in with a shot at winning an extra £100).

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The relegation battle in the Premiership has become increasingly intense. As the season progresses and Manchester United seemingly stumbling towards the title pursued by an equally reeling competition, the bottom of the table proves now to be the more intriguing are of the English top flight. This season sees the most intense dogfight to avoid the drop for many years.

It seems no-one in the bottom half of the table is immune, let alone safe. Before the weekend’s win against a Wigan outfit seeminly every bit mid-table Championship calibre, Sunderland had dropped like an action-movie elevator from potential European combatant to also-ran. Blackpool‘s astonishing start to the season came undone at exactly the same time as Charlie Adam’s Liverpool move was rejected. West Ham remain as consistent as the March weather. On the other hand, Wolves have proved the most plucky of all the teams in the relegation zone yet still prop up the table, hit hard by injury to target-man Kevin Doyle.

What confuses this situation more than in years past is that there are no “certainties” for the drop. Last year Portsmouth failed to break twenty points (thanks among other things to a nine-point deduction for going into administration) and in 2008, Derby County broke Sunderland’s record from 2006 for the fewest points in a season. This year, no such luck: the bottom nine clubs sit within one “six-pointer” of the drop zone.

When comparing this season to the previous decade, the only real precedents for such a tight battle was in 2003, 2007 and 2008, where – aside from the three in the relegation zone – five other clubs finished within six points of the drop. In all cases, however, one club was cut adrift much earlier in the season: in 2003 it was Sunderland, 2007 Watford and 2008 the hapless Derby County. Generally (60% over the last ten years), one club is mathematically relegated much sooner in the season than their compatriots. With only four (or five) matches remaining in this EPL season, there is no such bunny.

As always, the complicating factor in the relegation battle is Goal Difference. Goal difference has been known to be crucial – just ask Fulham fans, who in 2008 saw their club survive thanks only to a GD 3 superior to that of relegated Reading’s. Interestingly, while it’s mentioned often and loudly, that’s one of only two times since the turn of the twenty-first century that a club has avoided relegation by virtue of goal difference. The other was the year before, when a David Unsworth penalty against his former club Sheffield United lifted the Latics out of the drop zone at the expense of the Blades.

Another trend over the decade has been that as more teams are involved in a relegation battle, a greater impact is seen in goal difference over the course of a season. For example, in the years where eight clubs each year finished the season within six points of relegation (2003, 2007 and 2008) – or one crucial win against a fellow straggler – the average goal difference of any threatened clubs was much lower. The same is true in 2011, where nine clubs are still classified “in danger”.

Excepting Derby County in 2008 (who finished the season with 11 points and an all time goal difference record of -69), it’s easy to see that the average Goal Difference of relegation-threatened clubs decreases as the number of clubs increases.

Derby County are excluded because they are a statistical outlier – their season-long goal difference of -69 a whole 57% worse than any club’s during the past seven years – the next worst club in Goal Difference was 2003′s Sunderland squad, with -44. Since they lost almost every game (season record 1-8-29) we can assume everyone took points off them. This assumption may not necessarily be correct, but statistically speaking, it is safe.

As you can see, the tighter a relegation battle gets, the tighter clubs tend to become – with the possible exception of Ian Holloway’s Blackpool. If more club become involved in a relegation battle, it leads to lower average goal differences across those threatened teams. This season has produced another statistical anomaly which is interesting (but not very interesting) – Mark Hughes’ Fulham join Leeds United’s 2003 squad as the only “threatened” club in the last decade to boast a positive goal difference (+1).

It stands to reason that with an increased number of threatened clubs that average goal difference is reduced. If more clubs are involved in the Relegation battle, then that means for an even competition. An even competition means for even scores across a week-to-week basis and no matter if this Premier League has not been one of “vintage” calibre, it certainly has gone nearly unparalleled for intrigue and competition. In days past, the magic total of 40 points has been suggested to be a minimum safe distance. Only once has a club been relegated who had scored above forty points: West Ham, who were desperately unlucky to go down in 2003 with a record points tally.

Therefore, we can say safely with approximately 10% of the season still to play, the 2010-11 average Goal Difference figures are going to be amongst the lowest of the past ten years. If we extrapolate the figures as they stand now, it could mean an average goal difference as low as -16.85 for all threatened clubs over the course of the entire season. If we use Goal Difference as a marker of how intense a relegation battle is, then this relegation battle is statistically slightly (5%) more intense than than the previous most intense fight in 2008 involving Birmingham, Reading, Fulham and Bolton. Only this year, there’s no Derby County – there are no (relatively) easy points.

For more analysis and opinion, shoot across to Matthew Wood’s blog, Balanced Sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

With just six games remaining in this seasons Premier League campaign, the relegation battle looks set to be closer than ever with just eight points separating the bottom 12 clubs. The battle looks sure to come down to the final day of the season and I think there are seven clubs who are in grave danger of dropping out of England’s top flight.

It looks like 40 points is once again going to be the minimum safety mark, although with such an unpredictable season already, don’t be surprised if 40 points is not enough this time around.

Having looked at the teams involved at the bottom, I think Newcastle and West Brom (39 points), Fulham and Stoke (38 points) and Aston Villa (37 points) will have enough to survive the final scramble to stay out of the bottom three.

That leaves Wigan, Wolves, West Ham, Blackpool, Blackburn, Birmingham and Sunderland to battle it out for the four remaining Premier League places, leaving three to drop down to the Championship for next term. I will take a look at the remaining fixtures and weigh up each side’s survival chances.

Sunderland

Sunderland have recently been sucked well into the relegation fight, one more win should be enough for them but if their recent run of one point from eight games is anything to go by, that will be easier said than done. They should be thankful to former star Darren Bent for his goals earlier on this season. Steve Bruce will be pinpointing home games against Wigan and Wolves to ensure their safety.

Current Position: 13^th (38 points)

Predicted Finishing Position: 15^th

Blackburn Rovers

Blackburn have drawn their last three games but have no Premier League win in eight attempts. This run has meant them being dragged to within just three points of the relegation zone. They have a very difficult run in with home games against Manchester City, Bolton and Manchester United. I suspect the best they can hope for is three points from them games, meaning away matches at West Ham United and a final day visit to Wolves could shape their fate come the end of the season.

Current Position: 15^th (35 Points)

Predicted Finishing Position: 1^7th

Birmingham City

Since their Carling Cup win over Arsenal at Wembley, Birmingham have registered just one win in the Premier League and that has seen them fall to 16^th in the table. Four points from the last two games has given them a real hope of survival and a home game against Sunderland this weekend should see them climb further clear. They also have home games against Fulham and Wolves that should see them safe.

Current Position: 16^th (35 points)

Predicted Finishing Position: 14^th

Blackpool

Ian Holloway’s men cannot be accused of being boring this season, unfortunately for them there attacking style has left them somewhat short in recent games and after a flying start to the season, they now find themselves fighting for their lives. Since beating Liverpool their next 12 games have retuned just five points. They play Wigan this weekend in a six pointer to end all six pointers but a last day trip to Manchester United could be fatal in their survival plight.

Current Position: 17^th (33 Points)

Predicted Finishing Position: 18^th

West Ham United

The Hammers are no strangers to great escapes, remember Carlos Tevez? But after a mini revival with victories over Liverpool and Stoke City, they have since picked up one point from their last three games. That has left them in the relegation zone but they will have chances to climb out of that position, home games against Aston Villa, Blackburn and Sunderland should give them enough chances to survive, just.

Current Position: 18^th (32 Points)

Predicted Finishing Position: 16th

Wolves

After a crushing 3-0 home defeat to Everton last weekend on the back of a 4-1 defeat at Newcastle the week before; the Wolves faithful should be very concerned coming into the final weeks of the season. Their run in is by no means easy and with just eight away points all season, it will be home games against Fulham, West Brom and Blackburn that will decide their fate. I think they will fall just short.

Current Position: 19^th

Predicted Finishing Position: 19^th

Wigan

Bottom club Wigan are just two points from safety but two wins from 14 in the league does not make pleasant reading for the Latics’ fans. Unfortunately for them they have just two home league games remaining against Everton and West Ham United. With one win in the last 14 away games, I can’t see Wigan getting enough points to survive.

Current Position: 20^th (31 Points)

Predicted Finishing Position: 20^th

Current Relegation Betting

Unsurprisingly Wigan are currently clear favourites at odds of 1.37 (Betfair) to be relegated this season. I, like the bookmakers, think that is a given. Wolves are currently 1.92 to go down, interestingly they are slightly shorter odds than West Ham (1.88) but I think West Ham have enough in the way of quality and experience to survive so I won’t be backing them.

The final side I think that will fill the bottom three is Blackpool. Their odds are 1.75 (Betfair).

The interest for me is Sunderland’s current odds of 27.0 (Betfair). Although I do think they will have just enough points, if any sides down the bottom put a decent run together Sunderland’s odds could shorten dramatically and don’t be surprised to see them clinging on to their Premier League status going into the final couple of games.

Blackburn have a very difficult run in and their current odds of 3.5 (Betfair) may well possess some value but I think Birmingham City can count themselves safe.

It is hard to see past Wigan but the other two places are by no means filled. There is little value in backing Wolves or Blackpool so for some value back Blackburn to go down at 3.5 using your FREE £25 bet from Betfair. Not only that, you will get the chance to win an extra £100 TOTALLY FREE by signing up today.

There have already been numerous twists this season, expect a few more before the seasons conclusion.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The Premier League this Saturday looks set to give some of the teams at the bottom a massive chance to boost their survival hopes. Blackburn Rovers and Birmingham City go head to head in a classic six pointer, while the early game gives Wolves a chance to climb out of the relegation zone. West Ham United and Wigan Athletic have very difficult away games but any positive result could be vital come the end of the season. Let’s take a look all the games.

Wolves vs Everton

Wolves come into this game on the back of a demoralising 4-1 loss to Newcastle United last time out. However, they are unbeaten in three home matches, finding the net on nine occasions. That is a huge positive for Mick McCarthy and if they could sort out their defensive frailties they should have enough to stay up.

Everton beat Newcastle 2-1 on their last away day but before that they had only picked up two points from their previous five matches away from Goodison Park. Once again they are crippled by injuries to Mikel Arteta, Louis Saha and Marouane Fellaini to name but three.

I expect this one to end in a draw, but don’t expect a boring 0-0. The draw is 3.4 (Betfair).

Blackburn Rovers vs Birmingham City

These two sides will battle out a massive six pointer down the wrong end of the Premier League; a win for either side would take them to 37 points and probably just one more win away from safety. Blackburn have no win in seven games, picking up just three points in that time. They did however get an encouraging point at Arsenal last time out.

Birmingham City beat Bolton Wanderers in their last Premier League game, giving them some breathing space at the bottom. They will be hoping that momentum can bring another positive result today however they have not picked up a point at Ewood Park in their last four attempts.

I think Blackburn Rovers could just sneak this one, back them at 2.06 (Betfair).

Bolton Wanderers vs West Ham United

Bolton occupy eighth place in the Premier League and are just five points off a Europa League place. They have won their last three home games and have been solid at the Reebok Stadium all season, with just one defeat in their last 11 games, against Chelsea (4-0).

West Ham are a point off safety and are unbeaten in four away matches, with three being draws. The Hammers have only won two league matches away from Upton Park since August 2009 and that should be of real concern in the closing stages of the season.

Bolton are very dependable at home and I expect them to have just too much for West Ham, back a home win at 2.22 (Betfair).

Chelsea vs Wigan Athletic

Bottom placed Wigan could not have asked for a more difficult place to go to try and climb away from the relegation zone. Before their 1-0 defeat to Manchester City in their last away game, they did manage three straight draws; they have got four points from their last two home games.

Chelsea are very reliable at home and they should be way to strong for Wigan, back Chelsea to win both halves at 2.24 (Betfair).

Manchester United vs Fulham

Manchester United come into this on the back of an excellent win in the Champions League at Stamford Bridge in the week. Their home form this season is almost faultless, dropping just two points at Old Trafford all season.

Fulham occupy 10^th place in the table and have very little to play for, it will be a challenge for Mark Hughes to keep his side interested for the final seven games. The return of Bobby Zamora will be a massive boost to them though.

I expect Manchester United to fly out the traps and get the job done early on, allowing Sir Alex to rest some of his stars ahead of the Champions League second leg coming up on Tuesday. Back Manchester United to win to Nil at 2.28 (Betfair).

Sunderland vs West Brom

Sunderland have been very poor of late, they have lost their last three home games and were soundly beaten by a goal hungry Manchester City last time out. Since the departure of Darren Bent they have really struggled for goals and have won just once in nine since his departure. They should have enough to be safe but that is largely thanks to their former star.

West Brom have picked up four points from their last two away games and beat Liverpool at home last time out. I expect them to get a win here and pretty much ensure their place in the Premier League next season.

Back West Brom at 3.60 (Betfair).

Tottenham Hotspur vs Stoke City

Tottenham Hotspur return to White Hart Lane following the disaster in Madrid during the week. They will be wanting to right some wrongs from that night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peter Crouch get his name on the score sheet. Spurs are unbeaten in 12 at home.

Stoke’s away record is terrible and they should be thankful their home form is so good otherwise they could have found themselves in deep trouble come the end of the season. They have lost their last six on the road, failing to find the net in the last five.

Spurs will win this, back the home side to win to Nil at 2.8 (Betfair).

Remember, Soccerlens is offering one lucky punter the chance to win £100 – simply by placing a bet through us!

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Alex McLeish has set the foundations now to build something special at Birmingham City. In two years he has set his side up to comfortably survive in the Premier League, to such an extent that the clubs current status in and around the relegation zone has made them look more unflattering than their performances deserve.

Whatever the case though, they have one reason to look up, they have just won the Carling Cup final when they were true underdogs. Whatever the manner of the win and how the winner came, this is silverware and silverware breeds confidence which breeds success.

After a few seasons in which they had become a yo-yo club, last season they were massively impressive, comfortably safe for the vast majority of the season and even ruffling quite a few feathers along the way. Built on an untried but successful defence, this overshadows that they have great talent around the pitch. Players do not just impose themselves in defence but also in midfield and attack, where he has plucked several from obscurity to be relevant.

Steven Carr had once retired after his spell at the imploding Newcastle had no doubt destroyed his zest for the game. Lee Bowyer was thought of as a lost cause, but has been a major part of the clubs destiny. Keith Fahey was completely unknown in England, and now is a regular starter for Birmingham and is involved in the Republic of Ireland squad with much success so far. His two main centre backs Roger Johnson and Scott Dann never once played a top flight game between them, but they have become the cornerstones along with Carr and Liam Ridgewell who was discarded by Aston Villa.

The same rivals let go of Craig Gardner as well, who has been an inspiration this season and is as local if not more so than Steven Gerrard (he always supported Everton before he wore red, Gardner is Birmingham through and through). He has some players who have big reputaions as well, Zigic, Hleb, Beausejour and last night’s scorer Obafemi Martins.

Right at this moment, they can consider themselves the biggest team in the Midlands. With European football to come and likely survival, and still another possible trip to Wembley in the FA Cup, this is the second of 2 progressive years in the top flight. Chock full of character right down from the manager, with a little further investment from their owners who thus far have backed up their word with money, the skies the limit .

Another few years of Premier League establishment beckons.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Arsenal vs Birmingham
Carling Cup Final
Wembley Stadium, London
Sunday 27th February, 2011
16:00 BST

By kick-off on Sunday afternoon, five years, 9 months and 6 days will have passed us all by since Patrick Vieira clipped his winning penalty past Roy Carroll‘s despairing fingertips -  a calm stroke of the Frenchman’s right boot that ensured Arsenal ended the afternoon with FA Cup-winners medals slung around their necks.

Since that final in Cardiff, Vieira has moved on to Man City via two different Italian cities, Arsenal have moved stadium and over 3 million minutes have drifted away into the ether without Arsene Wenger‘s side procuring themselves anything to furnish the disconcertingly barren trophy cabinets at their new place.

Earlier in the season Wenger raised more than a few eyebrows by vowing to make a concerted effort to win this season’s Carling Cup after effectively dismissing the competition ever since being sworn in at Highbury back in  1996 – using the games as nothing more than jumped-up reserve and youth team run-outs on the majority of occasions, without any real concerns over progressing through the latter stages of the tournament.

To outsiders looking in, it seemed that the man that once claimed winning the Carling Cup ‘didn’t warrant a trophy parade’ was showing clear signs of desperation in his bid to validate his youth-orientated modus operandi.

Birmingham don't have a good recent record against Arsenal

Birmingham will be appearing in the third League Cup final (as opposed to Arsenal’s seventh) after last won the competition way back in 1963 – beating local rivals Aston Villa 3-1 over a two-legged affair.

The Blues’ last final appearance was in 2001, when they eventually losing 5-4 on penalties to Gerard Houllier‘s Liverpool after defender Darren Purse scored an equaliser in the last-minute of normal time – ironically from the penalty spot.

Manager Alex McLeish will be hoping that the afternoon runs smoother than his attempts to get his side ‘suited and booted’ for the occasion, after a joint dalliance between the players and suppliers Harvey Nichols saw the club’s £9,000 order filed too late for the suits to be delivered in time for the pre-match amble on the Wembley turf.

Incidentally, Arsenal have won both of the Premier League meetings between the two sides this season, beating Birmingham 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium in October and leaving St Andrews having won 3-0 on New Year’s Day.

In their one previous Carling Cup meeting, a third round game at Highbury in 1997, Arsenal’s reserve side routed Birmingham during extra time – eventually winning the tie 4-1, despite being a goal down at the end of 90 minutes.

Arsenal’s Road to the Final:

• Second round: Bye
  
• Third round: Tottenham 1-4 (a.e.t) Arsenal
• Fourth round: Newcastle 0-4 Arsenal
• Fifth round: Arsenal 2-0 Wigan

• Semi-finals (1st leg): Ipswich 1-0 Arsenal
• Semi-finals (2nd leg): Arsenal 3-0 Ipswich (Arsenal win 3-1 on agg.)

Birmingham’s Road to the Final:

• Second round: Birmingham 3-2 Rochdale
• Third round: Birmingham 3-1 MK Dons
• Fourth round: Birmingham 1-1 Brentford (Birmingham win 4-3 on pens)
• Fifth round: Birmingham 2-1 Aston Villa

• Semi-finals (1st leg): West Ham 2-1 Birmingham
• Semi-finals (2nd leg): Birmingham 3-1 (a.e.t) West Ham (Birmingham win 4-3 on agg.)

Selection and Injury Updates:

After spraining his ankle in Arsenal’s narrow Premier League victory over Stoke earlier this week, winger Theo Walcott is certain to miss the final, though doubts remain as to whether Cesc Fabregas will be fit in time.

Fabregas limped from the field after 14 minutes of the aforementioned game with a hamstring problem, and whilst his personal trainer has claimed the Spaniard should be fully recovered by Sunday, Arsene Wenger has ruled his captain out of the running.

Arsenal will also be giving late tests to Robin van Persie (hamstring) and Laurent Koscielny (back), though the club have confirmed that ‘keeper Lukasz Fabianski and Thomas Vermaelen will definitely miss the game.

Birmingham are going to be putting defensive duo Liam Ridgewell (calf) and Martin Jiranek (hip) through their paces on Saturday afternoon, though it’s thought that both players will have recovered sufficiently to play the following day.

However, Scott Dann (hamstring), Eric Valles (ankle) and James McFadden (knee) are- and will continue to be- sidelined.

Prediction:

The Gunners to end their half-decade barren streak, though not particularly convincingly…

Arsenal 2-1 Birmingham

Watch the Carling Cup Final Live

You can watch the Carling Cup final live online as well as dozens of other Premier League and European football games. Read our Carling Cup live football page for more details.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News