Following their defeat to Chelsea, I read a couple of articles writing off Manchester United’s title hopes. This feels absurdly early to me, so ahead of this weekend’s Premiership matches here are 4 reasons why I reckon Manchester United will be lifting the Premier League title in May 2010.

They’re not playing that well… yet

Odd as it may seem to start with this point, we have to remember that Manchester United are winning matches playing, by their standards, poorly. United’s form contrasts with Chelsea and Arsenal however neither has been able to shake off United who are still holding onto their coat-tails at the top of the league.

There is no doubt that Cristiano Ronaldo’s shadow still looms large over Old Trafford; the arrogant, controversial and brilliant Portuguese provided United with a regular source of goals but as this season progresses United will learn to win convincingly without him. Rio Ferdinand’s struggle for fitness and therefore form is also a concern and United will need to get him playing regularly as soon as they can.

Either way the next 3 months will be crucial for all the title hopefuls, The Champions League group stage is coming to an end and the teams focus solely on The Premier League. In the past this is where United hit their most consistent form of the season and reduce the gap between themselves and the league leaders.

The importance of squad men

When the season moves into the final couple of months the title challengers strength in depth is always tested as injuries and loss of form due to tiredness hit squads in earnest. Manchester United have the biggest depth of experienced players in their squad and this will be vital when juggling Champions League, Premiership and FA Cup Matches. Players such as Michael Owen Park Ji-Sung, Owen Hargreaves, Paul Scholes, Wes Brown and Gary Neville provide United with experienced back up options, which none of the other top four squads have in such abundance.

Arsenal, to their credit, rely on youth but will need all their key players to stay fit if they are to sustain their title challenge. Liverpool’s inexperienced squad has already been called upon this season, as injuries decimated their first XI, and has not been up to the required standard. Chelsea’s strength in depth is mainly in midfield and the full back positions and they may be found wanting if they get injuries to centre backs or centre forwards.

The manager

Whatever you think about Sir Alex Ferguson, his desire to win, ability to get the most out of his players and the effect he has on opposition teams is proven. Ferguson is symbolic of Manchester United – his arrogance and passion is taken onto the pitch by his players. The confidence and belief he inspires in his players are going to be crucial as United face the biggest battle to hold onto the title for three years.

Ferguson will relish taking on Ancelotti and a rejuvenated Arsene Wenger, both on the pitch and in the press, as the season progresses. Ferguson’s drive will be, if possible, even greater this year as he aims to complete what he initially set out to do when taking over at United in 1986. His aim was always to make United the dominant force in English football and overtake Liverpool as the most successful domestic club. With both teams on 18 League titles and Liverpool effectively out of the title race Ferguson will push his players to achieve even greater heights this season.

The January transfer window

Arsenal probably won’t strengthen their squad in January, Liverpool probably can’t strengthen due to their finances, Chelsea will strengthen but will likely sign players in January who will join in June. Manchester United, on the other hand, have already have strengthened their squad. The young Serbian attacking midfielder Adam Ljajic joins in January and though he is an exciting talent it is unlikely he will get much game time this season.

What is of more immediate importance is that Ferguson has seemingly run out of patience with Nani. The erratic winger starts rarely for United and when he does is often substituted early in the second half. United have lacked a decent left sided midfielder since Ryan Giggs moved to a more central role and, if they allow Nani to leave, will strengthen this position.

David Silva has been linked with United on more than one occasion and would be an immediate addition to Ferguson’s first team options. Silva, when fit, is a regular in the Spanish national side, is two-footed and can play out wide or up front. He would link up well with Rooney and Berbatov and give United greater attacking impetus.

They go into this weekend’s matches five points off the pace, recently beaten by both Chelsea and Liverpool, without their best centre half and still struggling to compensate for the loss of Ronaldo but Manchester United are best when facing adversity and I believe, come May, the Premier League trophy will be staying at Old Trafford.

There is no doubt that this season Manchester United have not yet played to the heights that have become expected of them. They haven’t scored as many goals and don’t look as fluent. Sometimes I think they miss Tevez, but then I see him play for Manchester City. He fitted perfectly with Rooney and his work rate made him a fan’s favourite. I agree that he wasn’t worth twenty-five million, but if something from your team in lost, surely he should have been kept.

I suppose after three consecutive titles, and a Champions league, Alex Ferguson has every right to believe in his team. The only problem is that they have lost to Liverpool and Chelsea. They relied on a dive by Rooney and an own goal to beat Arsenal, and only a goal late into stoppage time gave them victory over Manchester City.

You wouldn’t know much about football if you completely ruled out Manchester United in the title race, five points not being a mountain too high to climb. However it’s early in the season and still lots of football to be played. They just don’t seem like they could score on the counter attack. That’s probably because the loss of Cristiano Ronaldo. His pace and passing made it easier for United to destroy teams when under pressure. He started to perform against the so called ‘big teams’ and was integral to United success.

I believe that Ferguson has to buy in January. He needs a creative midfielder, like a Cesc Fabregas or Aquilani because although Anderson can run around a lot, United can’t rely on him to score as he’s only scored one goal in his three seasons in Manchester.

They also need a striker. One player could be Gignac, who is a life-long Manchester United fan and is the French version of Rooney. They may have missed out on him in the summer, but Benzema could also be available from Real Madrid. Owen is alright coming off the bench, but if there is an injury to Rooney, there’s not much quality to replace him.

However, Ferguson won’t buy in January – he’s not the sort to be rushed into buying players. They are under-strength in those positions and I’m sure if they win the league this year, it would be Ferguson’s best one. Sometimes if you win with an under-strength team, the belief is that you can win without the previous stars that were in the team. They need players like Nani and Anderson to improve and Valencia and Berbatov to show more of their potential.

They’ve got the experience, but they must improve their performances if they are to win the title this year.

On this day 23 years ago, a certain Alexander Chapman Ferguson was appointed as the manager at Manchester United. Today Sir Alex is the most decorated manager in British football history.

His tactical genius, inspirational personality and tremendous focus have put him in a league above others. Probably the only indispensable chink in the Man United armory, his achievements speak for themselves but to dominate the game for two decades takes more than just tactical astuteness and good man management skills.

Eye for talent

“If we look after him the right way he is going to be one of the stars of football.”- on Ronaldo

Sir Alex’s ability to unearth raw talent and develop them into superstars is probably unmatched, though Arsene Wenger too is accomplished in this regard. What separates him from the rest though is that he doesn’t just spot a player’s skill; he can also judge one’s character and ability to perform under pressure. This was seen in the Champions League final when, Anderson, a teenager in his first season at the club, stepped up and coolly converted his penalty whereas, some more experienced and accomplished players failed to do so. Beckham, Giggs, Scholes, Vidic and Ronaldo were all relatively unknown when they arrived at the club but were instrumental in the European cup wins. Cantona, Schmeichel and van der Sar were signed in bargain deals.

Discipline

“You can never allow the players to run the football club and you can never allow the supporters to run the football club. Somebody has to be in charge, and the manager is the best man.”

He is known to maintain very high standards both on and off the pitch. His strict policy has seen superstars like Beckham, Stam and Nistelrooy thrown out of the club when they crossed the line. He also managed to bring the best out of Cantona, who had previously been involved in several scuffles with teammates and bosses. He has also helped hot-headed players like Rooney and Ferdinand get a grip over their temper. His now famous “hair-dryer treatment” has been lashed out to some of the biggest names in football.

Protecting his players

“Wayne understands, as Ryan Giggs understood and Cristiano understands, we will not ask him to climb the mountain tomorrow. The big danger with young players is always that you ask too much of them too quickly. We will let him mature and develop as easily as we can.”

Though a tough taskmaster, he has always protected his players during their rough patches. He kept Ryan Giggs and Wayne Rooney away from over-exposure to the media when the burst to the scene as “Wonder-kids”. He has constantly protected Rooney despite criticism for his lack of goals, stood behind Cantona during his infamous Kung-Fu kick incident and saved Ronaldo from the public’s wrath after the 2006 World Cup

Hunger for titles

“At the end of this game, the European Cup will be only six feet away from you and you’ll not even able to touch it if we lose. And for many of you that will be the closest you will ever get. Don’t you dare come back in here without giving your all.”- At half-time in the 99 Champs League final

Sir Alex is a born winner. He hates loosing and instills the same feeling in his players, an attitude which has seen his team win the Champions League final after trailing for most of the game and on another occasion saw Utd bounce back from a 3-0 deficit at half-time against Spurs to win 5-3. He has postponed retirement plans on several previous occasions insisting that he still has the desire to win more titles.

Whether it was the problem of getting his team accustomed to the different style of play in the European tournament in the 90’s or the more recent issue of the Rooney-Tevez pairing up-front, Sir Alex has always managed to find a way out of difficult situations.

When he started out his rivals were the likes of Souness, Venebles and Dalglish who despite being about the same age have faded away which shows that he has constantly evolved with the changing cultures in the football, in the process introducing revolutionary ideas and tactics (and even phrases like “squeaky-bum time”). While his attitude and tactical knowledge have put him at the top, it’s his personal drive and ability to evolve which have helped him stay there for more than two decades.

Eccentric style

“They say he’s an intelligent man, right? Speaks five languages! I’ve got a 15-year-old boy from the Ivory Coast who speaks five languages!” on Arsene Wenger

Sir Alex has at several times used the media to his advantage. Now famous for his mind games and mischievous swipes at opposition managers, he on several occasions has also lavished praise on his players in public. Never one to be afraid of taking a gamble, he dropped Jim Leighton ahead of the 1990 FA Cup final, signed a certain Eric Cantona, already famous for his indiscipline, and replaced most of his double winning squad with youngsters, in 1994, which prompted Alan Hanson to say “You’ll never win anything with kids”. Just like this time, he has forced his critics to eat their words on several occasions.

When this fiery Scot took over a talented but title hungry Man Utd in 1986, his sole aim was to knock Liverpool “off their perch”. 23 years on, he has achieved so much more. He has taken the club to heights that were not reached even during the time of the legendary Sir Matt Busby.

Unlike several other managers who now lay more emphasis on a patient and disciplined approach, as the financial stakes increase constantly, he has achieved it all while playing “the beautiful game” the way it should be played. As famous for his catchy one-liners as for his style of chewing gum, Sir Alex is held in the highest esteem among fans and rivals alike.

With his declaration that he wants a third Champions League title before retirement (straight after he won his second!), the man who reportedly was about to be sacked in 1990 has once again warned his rivals that the fire in him still burns.

“Alex has given Manchester United the most fantastic ride, and he has made the club what we always thought it was – number one” – Sir Bobby Charlton

Sir Alex Ferguson is assured legendary status in football and his achievements have been recognised by football fans worldwide – even those that prefer spending their days playing Football Manager than playing football.

Ferguson topped a poll carried out by Sports Interactive (makers Football Manager 2010) with 26 per cent of the vote.

Sir Alex is followed by the late, great Sir Bobby Robson (potentially a sympathy vote) with Liverpool manager Bill Shankly scored third spot and Brian Clough took fourth. Another Old Trafford legend, Sir Matt Busby, who despite Fergie’s efforts still holds the record as the longest serving Manchester United manager of all time, was voted into fifth place.

The top ten also included Sir Alf Ramsey, ‘Special One’ Jose Mourinho, Arsene Wenger, Bob Paisley with Jock Stein bringing up the rear.

The poll was taken by over 1,000 UK football fans (and is therefore should be titled ‘Greatest football managers in the UK’) – here’s the top 10 with their percentage of votes received:

Sir Alex Ferguson – 26%
Sir Bobby Robson – 14%
Bill Shankly – 9%
Brian Clough – 8%
Sir Matt Busby – 6%
Sir Alf Ramsey – 5%
Jose Mourihno – 4%
Arsene Wenger – 3%
Bob Paisley – 2%
Jock Stein – 1%

Football Manager 2010 is out in the stores on Friday 30th October and you can pre-order your copy right away.

Share your thoughts on who you think is the best football manager – past or present – in the comments below.

Take a listen to Episode 24 of the world famous Soccerlens Podcast with ex-footballer Adrian Clarke and sports journalist Iain Spragg for half an hour of fascinating football discussion.

This week’s chipper chat centres around Sir Alex Ferguson’s ongoing run-in with the powers-that-be, the pro’s and cons of Emile Heskey (more cons), and the possibility of a breakaway Atlantic League.

There are also previews of this weekend’s best action (including AC Milan v Roma and Sunderland v Liverpool) – and the passionate pair also find time to answer the best questions from this week’s bulging Soccerlens Podcast mailbag.

Make sure you send in your feedback and questions through podcast@soccerlens.com and Clarke and Spragg will feature the best of them in next week’s show.

You can listen to this week’s episode below:
Download link (mp3, 26mb, 28 mins)

Hello and welcome to episode 23 of the world famous Soccerlens Podcast. Join ex-footballer Adrian Clarke and celebrated sports journalist Iain Spragg for half an hour of proper football chat.

This week’s entertaining show covers Internet-only football, a good old fashioned seedings stitch-up, Fergie v Referees, World Cup previews (including Russia v Germany and Republic of Ireland v Italy)  – and to round things off the dynamic duo share a lively discussion on the weird and wacky world of football club ownership!

If you have a question or would like to make a comment about any of the subjects discussed on the show don’t hesitate to get in touch at podcast@soccerlens.com – and Clarkey and Spraggy will do their best to feature them in the next podcast.

You can listen to the show below:
Download link (mp3, 32mb, 34 mins)

Michael Owen has been a polemic figure throughout his career. At 29 years of age many critics claim that he is already past his prime; that his workrate has slowed, his injuries have multiplied and his goal scoring has come to a shuddering halt. Others believe that his best is yet to come; that he has plenty of energy left, that his injuries mostly come down to bad luck and that he is still, statistically speaking, one of the most lethal English strikers around. Owens’ recent transfer to Manchester United brought out all of these differing opinions. However, few people paid attention to the shrewdness and practicality that went into his contract. Though many United fans lamented the signing of Michael Owen, I have reason to believe that his was one of the most intelligent, devious, and lucrative transfers of the past decade.

1. Where Michael Fits In

It may be surprising to hear, but Manchester United definitely needed someone like Michael Owen in order to strengthen their squad this season. With the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo United lost one of their most creative attackers; a player who could score wonder goals when things were going right and nick winners at the depth when they weren’t. Many United fans would be quick to point out that the likes of Wayne Rooney could step up and fill this role, but statistically speaking that does not seem to be the case.

Let’s look at Rooney’s statistics specifically. During the 07/08 season he made 27 appearances in the Premier League. In his two appearances as a substitute, Rooney scored no goals. However, in the remaining 25 starts, he put away 12 for United. Of these 12, none were game winners or savers. Nine came in no contest games (in which United sealed victory by 3 goals or more.)

Now let’s see what Owen did for Newcastle during that same season. He made 29 appearances in the Premier League for the club. In his five appearances as a substitute, he scored one goal-a game winner. In his remaining 24 starts Owen scored ten goals. Of these ten, five were game winners or savers and six came in must-win situations.

Putting two and two together we can come to the following conclusions: one, that Wayne Rooney tends to score when the going is good; two, that Michael Owen tends to create winners out of nothing; and three, that together these goalscoring foils could collaborate to fill the gap left by Ronaldo.

2. The Question of Injury

Most of Michael Owens’ critics have a problem with his physical fitness, claiming that he breaks down too easily and is sidelined by injury far too often. There is plenty of truth to this claim; we need only to look upon his career statistics to see that he is quite injury-prone. However, most of Owens’ injuries have occurred after he made several consecutive starts. It is easy to see that he isn’t up to par with other Premier League strikers on a game-by-game basis, and his critics are right to doubt him in that particular area.

Manchester United have made it clear that they don’t plan on using Owen in such a way. Based on his contract and the first few games of the season it seems Ferguson will be playing him mostly as a sub, in the same vein as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. This is an excellent move. Owen clearly can’t hold up properly if he starts every game, but playing in twenty minute spurts or so will keep him healthy and motivated. Looking again at his statistics, he scores nearly ¾ of his goals in the second half anyways, and his tendency to pick up late winners and equalizers means he is extremely well-suited to the role of “super sub.”

3. The Contract

Most of the genius of this particular deal comes from the contract. Manchester United clearly did their research before handing their offer to Owen, as it is perfectly tailored to maximize his potential while minimizing United’s cost of playing him. Obviously, Owen was picked up as a free agent, so United avoided paying any fees to Newcastle United in exchange for his services. This obviously made the signing of Michael Owen ludicrously cheap, but United refused to stop there. They drafted an intelligent contract built around the concept of keeping Owen healthy, motivated, and hungry for goals.

Owens’ contract is almost completely incentive-based. He will be paid based on minutes played and goals scored. Considering United’s attachment to the idea of playing him as a substitute, he will not play nearly as many minutes as the likes of Rooney and Berbatov and will therefore cost United much less. However, knowing that his paycheck is dependent upon his goalscoring performance will encourage Owen to make the most of every opportunity on the pitch. If he doesn’t score, he won’t be paid. If he does get injured, United will lose nothing, as he isn’t earning much of a weekly salary. In short, this deal was far from a gamble. It was a well thought out plan to gain the services of an experienced striker without having to pay the price tag that would normally accompany him. Plus, Owen is English, so he will help United to comply with the Premier League’s new home-grown player regulations. United cannot lose from this deal. And Owen will only lose if he doesn’t perform-good performances, meanwhile, will win him extra payments and a chance to get into Fabio Capello’s good books before the 2010 World Cup.

This is hardly an adoring ode to Michael’s controversial late winner against Manchester City. It is a testament to Manchester United’s rare moment of financial savvy. In a league where clubs are getting into huge amounts of trouble offering lucrative contracts to foreign teenagers, United managed to secure the signature of an experienced and well-respected player with little to no risk of failure. Even if Owen were to leave the club before the season ended, United still wouldn’t have lost. Their alacrity and astuteness in relation to Michael Owen is what surely makes this one of the greatest-and most devious-signings of this new century.

The clock is ticking down to the start of the most talked about Manchester derby in years.

A resurgent city have emerged like a phoenix from the flames when compared to the club of five years ago that looked as if fate would retire the blue half of Manchester to a Leeds like spiralling demise into the lower divisions. Then Sven arrived under new ownership with a pocket full of cash and City have never looked back.

Now with yet another owner armed with even deeper pockets, Mark Hughes has built a squad that reads like a fantasy football team and so far any doubts over his ability to gel the players into a winning unit have been brushed aside with a blemishless record in the league so far this season.

On the red side of the equation, United are a team in transition after the departure of the Ballon d’Or winner and one Carlos Tevez. But despite this the red machine rolls on as Fergusons drive for success still burns as brightly as ever. Ferguson has had a lot to say about City in recent times and appears to be relishing in the prospect of a more legitimate competition coming from the other side of town. He knows that the United fans would love nothing more their side to be the first to knock City off their new found pedestal.

Recent events have conspired to see City’s in form striker Emmanuel Adebayor suspended from the game after his antics against Arsenal last time out. Robinho and Santa Cruz will also miss out through injury with Tevez rated as ‘severely doubtful’ to recover in time to play (which is manager speak for expect to see him on the bench at least). This means City are certainly not the same prospect they could be going forward, but none the less still possess significant talent in the squad and coupled with the fact that they did not appear in European competition this week, will be very well prepared both physically and tactically for the fixture on Sunday.

United are largely injury free going into the match, with Rio Ferdinand the only lingering doubt. He was rested for the recent Champions League match in Turkey and baring any more setbacks in training today, the smart money will be on him taking his place in the defence next to Vidic come the first whistle. Both teams go into the game with a point to prove, tensions will be high and both sets of supporters will be desperate to take home the bragging rights at least until the next time the teams meet.

With home advantage and a clear bill of health you have to fancy United to prevail in this one. Arsenal can however testify to the Blues new found resilience even if this time around City aren’t quite the same force on paper as they were that day.

United suffered an early season shock with defeat to Burnley, certainly three points dropped in their view and something Ferguson will be very acutely aware of. United can’t afford too many more slip ups as they chase their fourth league title in a row and City will be only too happy to put another dent in that challenge. Ferguson’s recent comments about City provide further proof if any were needed that they are to be taken very seriously from now on. The Scotsman known to only engage in his fabled ‘mind games’ with those he deems as worthy.

A great match in prospect then come 13:30 (GMT) on Sunday, I for one will be glued to proceedings eager to see which side can set down the first marker in a war that looks set to rage for many more seasons yet. It can’t come fast enough..

The season so far has had its ups and downs for the Reds. A shock defeat to Burnley certainly wasn’t in the script, as the world looks on intently to see how the reigning Premiership Champions set about life after Ronaldo and ‘that’ final in Rome, to defending their domestic crown to make it four League titles in a row and surpass the record of their long time Merseyside rivals Liverpool.

The summer saw a great deal of upheaval at United with the long and protracted saga of Cristiano Ronaldo’s move to Real Madrid finally concluded, thoughts turned to the future of one Carlos Tevez who had established himself as a real fans favourite at Old Trafford during his two year stay. Life at United is never far from the back pages, but never before have the Reds had to share so many column inches with the blue team of Manchester, and in the end so it proved a controversial move to Man City was to unfold for Tevez leaving United seemingly short in the striking department.

Ferguson then proceeded to bring in Michael Owen and Valencia assuring the slightly disgruntled United faithful that youth players like Macheda and Welbeck would be given more playing time and responsibility to produce a goal return for the senior side in the coming season. Now five games in, we are in a position to take stock of the state of play at Old Trafford and assess what can and should be expected for the remainder of the campaign.

Firstly, I can see no argument to suggest that a team can improve by selling its best player. Ronaldo was just that for United and although we have seen Rooney respond fantastically to the increased responsibility of leading the team, there should be no confusing the fact that the sum of all the parts is less with Ronaldo out of the side.

However United are a different proposition now, and a team still trying to feel it’s way into a new system. For the first time in many seasons there could be a genuine debate as to what United’s best 11 is. Aside from Rooney, Vidic, Evra and Ferdinand, Alex Ferguson can and has picked a variety of different player combinations based on a number of factors, namely: form, fitness and which players have the best characteristics for beating the opposition in question. This rotation approach has the benefit of making life harder for opposing teams to predict how best to set up against United, however it should also be considered that this has not helped the continuity of the transition to the new way of playing either.

The Premier League race this year is proving to be one of the closest run in a very long time. Man City in particular are off to a flyer, and even after their loss to United at the weekend Tottenham are still considered by many as genuine contenders to crash the Top Four party.

The upcoming Manchester derby provides a mouth watering prospect of duels and battles both on and off the field with United looking to inflict City’s first defeat of the season and the Blues desperate to get one over their long time dominant local adversary. With a resurgent Arsenal and Chelsea looking as strong as ever, it may prove to be Liverpool that come the end of the season suffer the embarrassment of Champions league exile, only time will tell.

The Reds certainly still have the tools to compete for trophies on all fronts, and the squad will be looking to prove that despite the loss of the current Ballon d’or holder they were by no means a one man team. With Owen Hargreaves set to make a long awaited return from injury to bolster the midfield, along with Anderson finally breaking his scoring duck things are looking up for United.

Dimitar Berbatov continues to flatter to deceive, showing moments of brilliance and then disappearing for large parts of games. Owen is also seemingly still trying to find his feet in a team that is expected to win every match, although he has stayed clear of injury thus far which will have surprised some.

It would be foolish to suggest that United won’t be at the sharp end of things when that time of the season rolls around for the medals to be handed out. Like the rest of the contenders though, United know they are going to have to fight and earn every point in this campaign even more so than the last.

With a big part of the artillery gone from the successful team of last season, question marks still hang over United’s ability to deliver consistently when it matters. With wins over Arsenal and a high flying Tottenham since the Burnley defeat, any self doubt that may have crept into the minds of the United players will be slowly seeping away.

Perhaps the question is more will the pretenders to the thrown have enough to take the title away from United this term, because they will certainly not be surrendering it lightly.

Speaking to the press on Thursday at UEFA’s elite coaches forum, Alex Ferguson agreed that something has to be done to eradicate diving from the game and that UEFA took the decision on Eduardo to set a marker for the rest of the season.

But while the Beeb would have you believe (along with a fantastic photo) that Ferguson was backing UEFA’s ban on Eduardo, what was far more interesting and relevant were his comments about Wenger’s reactions to the ban.

Ferguson:

“I agree with Arsene, I would ask the same question ‘is it going to happen to everyone?’

Privately, as I’ve done many times, you have a different view, but I wouldn’t do it publicly.”

Put this in context of what Wenger said about protecting his players in the public eye by saying that ‘I didn’t see it’ (or something to that effect), and you have two managers being remarkably candid and honest about how they deal with diving.

Why can’t the BBC see this?