With Gian Piero Gasperini’s dismissal as Inter Milan manager, the Mourinho’s Curse has claimed it’s latest victim. Since his appointment at FC Porto, full-time successors have struggled to cope with the expectations of a Mourinho coached side. Almost all have failed.

It’s not necessarily a lack of results that drives the replacement of his replacements, either. Poor manager selection, bad luck, personal issues or presidential impatience has contributed to the carnage he inadvertantly leaves in his wake.

After his last exit – fresh off claiming the treble with Inter Milan – there have been four managers appointed within sixteen months. Big name Rafael Benitez wasn’t backed to his satisfaction in the transfer window and failed to impose his tactical will on his charges. Leonardo had more success, but was not thought of by many (probably including himself) as a permanent manager and now leads the PSG football department. Gasperini efffectively signed his own pink slip with the ill-fated acquisition of Diego Forlan and a preference for 3-4-3.

To examine the records of his immediate successors at each of his first two big club jobs (Porto and Chelsea), Mourinho’s record doesn’t necessarily overshadow those of his replacements. In fact, in the first season after Mourinho moved to London, the Portuguese champions employed three managers, though Luigi Del Neri didn’t even make the start of the season, citing homesickness.

It is seven years post-Mourinho at Porto. Six men have had their names on the manager’s office. It’s now four years now since Roman Abramovich let him walk and he has employed five managers. As you can see from the table below, it’s hardly because of results: though Jose boasts a better record than his collective replacements, it’s a matter of around 10%. (Having said that, 10% is often the distance at which a team wins or loses the title).  At Inter Milan, you can see the vast difference between Mourinho and his successors – the 56.1% includes Leonardo’s winning percentage, which was significantly higher than Jose’s.

Of course though results are usually the ultimate arbiter, there are further reasons for such management turnover. Mourinho’s last four stops have placed remarkably high expectations on the team and manager. Co Adriaanse – the fourth of five managers at Porto within a five-year period – moved back to his homeland (to take over AZ Alkmaar) of his own volition.

You can’t deny the importance of results. But it’s his personality that allows Jose to get such tactically disciplined teams; replacements apparently have difficulty getting their message across. There are very few in football with Mourinho’s strength of personality. Those managers who have attempted to impose their tactical will on a Jose-ified team (Scolari, Benitez and Gasperini) have failed miserably, each lasting incrementally less time than the last.

That caretakers Leonardo and Hiddink both bettered Mourinho’s winning percentage is telling. Both have a style that empowers players and allows each to do what they do best. Given Mourinho’s propensity for talent-spotting – favouring “power”-type players who are adept defensively – and the resuls of his tactics and training, what those players usually do best is either play Jose-ball or their own style.

For players so used to one style (and message), adapting to another method – especially when noted straight-man Benitez delivers the message – could prove difficult. Gasperini’s 3-4-3 was a mistake just because of a defence that looked like it was running through treacle. Imposing one’s will on a veteran team who have spent years being told “No one can beat us if we stay together and play this way” is a tough sell for anyone, let alone someone who has often moved internationally and is communicating in a second/third/seventh language.

With Gasperini’s firing, Mourinho’s Curse cements itself more firmly into football folklore. When he eventually leaves Real Madrid (who employed ten managers in the decade before Mourinho), his replacement will have to work in arguably a more intense environment. The results bear watching, as they do for the next four years at Inter Milan.

Matthew Wood regularly contributes to Soccerlens.  You can read more of his analysis and commentary at Balanced Sports or follow him on Twitter @balanced_sports

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The season hasn’t started yet, but Arsenal are already contemplating a tough month ahead with matches against Liverpool, Manchester United, Newcastle and Udinese to start their season with, plus trouble in the transfer market with Fabregas and Nasri pushing for moves away and a lack of incoming talent.

There’s a strong temptation to categorise Arsenal’s upcoming Champions League qualifying playoffs against Serie A side Udinese as another sign of incredibly difficult times at the Emirates – but it might be the best thing to happen to Arsenal the whole of August.

For starters, Udinese will still be in pre-season – their first league outing is against Juventus on the 28th, but the kicker will be the loss of three key players for Udinese during the summer – Sanchez (Barcelona), Inler (Napoli) and Zapata (Villareal). ‘Selling your way to the top’, as Swiss Ramble puts it, has the unfortunate consequence of requiring the management to constantly rebuild the team.

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The first leg will be at home, another blessing as Wenger will be serving his touchline ban (courtesy of his outrage post-Barcelona last season) and RVP and Nasri are suspended as well. Quite simply, getting knocked out from the Champions League this early in the season would be disastrous for Arsenal, and you can expect Wenger to drill into his team the importance of controlling the tie at the Emirates and making the return leg a formality.

It’s a measure of Arsenal’s troubles on and off the pitch that a tricky knock-out tie worth at least £17.4m (the sum Arsenal will get for playing in the Champions League group stages) is the least of their worries in August.

Today, Arsenal and Barcelona are expected to meet in London to further discuss the transfer of Cesc Fabregas, with 2 bids already rejected and Arsenal holding out for 40m, with Barcelona offering 35m. Samir Nasri is also ready to go, with Wenger refusing to accept a reported 22m transfer fee for a player likely to leave on a free transfer next summer.

I’ve already said it makes no sense for Arsenal to keep Nasri, and why Arsenal should keep hold of Fabregas for one more year, but the more you wait, the more it looks like Arsenal will do the exact opposite.

Only if Arsenal were able to ship out the players they wanted to get rid off with as much as ease as their wantaway stars. Bendtner and Almunia are still at Arsenal, with talks seemingly taking forever, while there are no takers for Squillaci. High wages are a sticking point for all three. Wenger is also refusing to pay more than £10m on a defender, a strategy that leaves Arsenal without any defensive additions in a squad that desperately needs them (regardless of Vermaelen’s return to fitness).

And then there’s the Premier League. A quick look at Arsenal’s Premier League fixtures for August 2011 shows enough challenges to derail their title hopes at any point of the season – Arsenal are away to Newcastle, host Udinese in their Champions League qualifier before hosting Liverpool in the league, then travel away to Udine for the second leg before ending the month with an away trip to play the Premier League champions Manchester United.

Traditionally, Arsenal are strong starters to the season, and how they start their 2011/2012 Premier League campaign – both on the pitch and in the transfer window – will determine whether they are fit for a title challenge this season or if they will be chasing the Champions League qualifying spot.

Sign up for Sky Sports HD (under £40 / month) and watch Arsenal in the Champions League and the Premier League all season long.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

AC Milan and adidas have revealed their 2011/2012 third shirt.

We have already shown you the Milan away shirt for next season and how well that has turned out.

The third shirt is going to be black with red adidas pin-stripes on the shoulders, black collar and a green, white and red stripe on the chest.

Alongside the club crest, manufacturer and sponsor logo, Milan will bear a crest of the flag of Italy because they are the Serie A champions.

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From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The hunt is on for creative midfielders this summer as managers across England look for the perfect solution to unlocking packed defences. With Paul Scholes retiring, Frank Lampard ageing and Carlos Tevez agitating for a move, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City are all looking for a player to shoulder attacking responsibility on the pitch and ‘deliver magic’.

On the other hand, you have Samir Nasri at Arsenal who is in the final year of his contract and has made a quite public stance of ‘wait and see’ this summer, courting United and City while keeping an eye on Arsenal’s transfer policies and of course, whether Fabregas finally leaves Arsenal or not. There were reports at the start of the summer that if Fabregas went Nasri would stay (i.e. Arsenal could afford to break the bank to keep him), but it’s more likely that his future will be independent of Cesc’s.

Then there is Luka Modric at Tottenham, the picture of politeness, who spoke through his agent about wanting to play in the Champions League right after it was clear that Tottenham would NOT qualify for the Champions League next season. He’s also spoken about wanting to play for Chelsea, and despite Ferguson’s interest the option of staying in London and getting a massive pay hike seems to appeal to the Tottenham midfielder. However, Spurs (justifiably) hold all the aces, and may increase his wages but not sell him this summer.

And finally you have Wesley Sneijder at Inter Milan – an ageing Inter Milan that is not only being dragged back into Calciopoli but also desperate to recover their footing after ruling Italy (and at one point Europe and the World) for a few years. Reports from Netherlands strongly suggest that Sneijder has his heart set at a move to United and the only stumbling block remains the transfer fee. Inter want 35m, and if United were to buy Sneijder it would probably be a player + cash deal. Which player? Well, Samuel Eto’o wants to play in the Premier League as well, so maybe there’s a striker going the other way?

It’s still the first week of July, so there’s plenty more to go in the transfer stories for these three players. What I’d like to do is to compare the stats for Modric, Nasri and Sneijder and look at who is, statistically speaking, the most valuable of them all.

Modric v Nasri v Sneijder – 2010/2011 League Stats

NASRI AND SNEIJDER LEAD THE WAY IN ATTACK

Stats show that while Luka Modric excels in his role as a deep-laying playmaker and actually wins more one-on-one duels than his more attacking peers, Samir Nasri and Wesley Sneijder dominated their respective leagues last season when it came to delivering balls in the final third.

Luka Modric also managed to make it into the top five in the Premier League rankings, completing 528 passes in the last third of the pitch.

Most successful passes in the final third – 2010/11 Premier League

Most successful passes in the final third – 2010/11 Serie A

For a team like City and United, both of whom need more creativity higher up the pitch, Nasri and Sneijder look to be the ideal recruits. On the other hand, United may look at their squad and think that Modric’s arrival would still leave them needing a more attacking midfielder (unless they press Modric higher up the pitch), while Chelsea would look at Modric as the ideal foil for Lampard in the center of the pitch and would be happy to have him sit back and run the show while Torres, Drogba, Malouda and co ran amok up front.

If you were managing United, City or Chelsea, which player would you buy and why?

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

New Inter coach Gian Piero Gasperini was introduced to the world’s media for the first time and claimed he knows his side will improve on their second placed finish last season. Gasperini was flanked at the press conference by technical director Marco Branca and vice managing director Stefano Filucchi and the former Genoa manager is desperate to impress.

Gasperini stated: ‘I’ve tried to get stuck straight into my new job and right from the start my impression was that this training centre has everything we need to be able to work to the best of our abilities. Training won’t start until next Sunday but we’re ready now.’

The 53 year old will take charge of his first training session in four days time and has disclosed some information about how he plans to set the Nerazzurri up tactically. Gasperini revealed that he is prepared to try a three man defence, but will hold further alternatives to change the outlook of an Inter side, which had been dramatically stabilised and improved under former coach Leonardo. The Brazilian revitalised the squad after a difficult time under Rafael Benitez, but left to join wealthy French side PSG and Gasperini was drafted in as his immediate replacement. Gasperini himself has not revealed all the tactics he would use, stating that ‘the team is full of great players capable of performing in different positions‘.

Former Inter boss and now Real Madrid coach Jose Mourinho will forever be imprinted in the minds and hearts of Inter fans following his treble-winning heroics in the 2009/2010 season, but Gasperini is not overawed by the task facing him at the Stadio Guiseppe Meazza. ‘There have been generations of important Inter coaches and players. I will become a part of that starting from now and I must concentrate on the immediate future.’

Gasperini’s first competitive match as part of the Nerazzurri will come on the 6th of August in the Italian Super Cup and the Italian will field the players who have been able to take part in the pre-season preparations and not those players who have been with their South American sides as part of the Copa America. ‘What we must show right from the beginning is a strong mentality and a desire to achieve new targets‘, Gasperini revealed.

Speculation has been rife in the media over the rumoured incomings and outgoings at Inter this season. Manchester City striker Carlos Tevez’ recent admission that he would like to leave Eastlands may have alerted Inter, who had been the frontrunners in the race for the Argentinian’s signature. Gasperini did not discuss the possibility of bringing in Tevez, but revealed that the club hold a firm interest in Velez Sarsfield playmaker Ricky Alvarez.

The new Inter coach said: ‘Alvarez is a great player. If he came to Inter, he would be a major reinforcement.’ Gasperini also spoke about the speculation surrounding Dutch midfielder Wesley Sneijder, stating that they would love to keep the 27 year old at Stadio Guiseppe Meazza, but revealed that just like when Inter sold striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Barcelona two years ago, the exit of a star player would not result in the team lacking in quality. Gasperini believes that there will be reinforcements, if they receive a good offer for Sneijder, but his first thought is keeping the side as strong as last season and adding to the current crop of players.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The new Nike T90 Seitiro footballs will be used in Europe’s top three football leagues – English Premier League, Spanish La Liga and Serie A for the upcoming 2011/2012 season.

The new Nike Seitiro will replace the T90 Tracer, and is based on two driving philosophies -to enable the player to spot the ball immediately, and to deliver perfect aerodynamic stability so that the ball performs as intended by the controlling player.

The T90 Seitiro ball’s casing color, graphic design and contrast creates an optimal visual signal on the pitch, allowing for players to rapidly and intuitively spot the ball anywhere on the pitch. Nike claim that the Seitiro’s touch, stability and visibility make it the best ball on the planet, and it comes heavily endorsed by the likes of Wayne Rooney, Andrés Iniesta and Wesley Sneijder, but you only have to cast your mind back to the 2010 World Cup where Adidas rolled out 3 Adidas sponsored goalkeepers to talk about how good the Jabulani was when everyone was complaining about how they couldn’t work with it.

The bottom line is, a new football with an evolved touch and aerodynamics will need time getting used to. As Nike and Adidas try to build rounder, lighter and ‘truer’ balls, it eventually comes down to how well they perform on the pitch. For Nike, they have the comfort of a) the best marketing in world football behind their products and b) the ability to launch the ball across major domestic leagues giving players time to train with it in pre-season.

In other words, no matter how good or how bad the ball is, timing is everything.

The Nike T90 Seitiro is available at retailers worldwide and at www.nikestore.com from July 1st.

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The World's Best Ball: Nike Seitiro

Nike T90 Seitiro NikeTown Video

Featuring Jack Wilshere, Ashley Cole, James Milner, Rafael Da Silva and more.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

A scoring stat is defined as any goal or assist and through this combination we have so far investigated how reliant certain clubs across Europe are on star individuals. So which players actually contributed the most to the success of their teams in season 2010-2011?

Unsurprisingly, the most dominant forces by way of contributing to their teams forces came from Germany or Italy. In fact, there is a definite “continental” flavour to the players who contribute most to their teams: of the nineteen players who contributed to over 40% of their teams scores with a goal or assist, only one came from England – Manchester City’s Carlos Tevez. This could be a function of his manager’s heritage and tactics or simply more evidence to suggest his vital nature to the Citizens’ attack. Of those nineteen individuals, there were six forwards from Serie A, seven from La Liga and five who played in the Bundesrepublik.

Bologna’s captain Marco Di Vaio was statistically the player most involved in his team’s goals throughout Europe, while relegated Frankfurt were perhaps too reliant on the goals of Theofanis Gekas. The full table can be found at Balanced Sports’ Scoring Stats page. All nineteen players who contributed to over forty percent of their team’s goals can be found in the table below:

While very few of these numbers have changed significantly since first sight, the greatest surprise is seeing FC Cologne forward Novakovic so high in the rankings. The Slovenian scored twenty goals in a contract drive which saw him named the league’s third highest scorer.

Koln’s forward press

In April when we first evaluated how important individuals were to their clubs by this admittedly simple measure, there was another representative from the Cathedral city who made the top fifteen most important, forward Lukas Podolski. That Novakovic unseated him first as Koln’s statistically most important forward isn’t necessarily suprising – Podolski contributed to 43.4% of his club’s scoring only six weeks prior to these readings, while Novakovic was involved in in 42.6% at the end of the season. This could be due to one of three reasons – a slow (read: injured) start to the season by Novakovic, a remarkable finish by the same player, or a spectacular drop-off from Podolski.

What it can’t be is one providing assists for the other to finish – they totalled seven assists between them. What it does starkly indicate is how little scoring the Billy Goats received from their midfield – Podolski and Novakovic managed between themselves to contribute to 78.7% of all FC Koln’s goals.

Which leads us to ask – as we did in April – what the breakdown is between scores and assists across Europe. The following table lays out the differences between the leagues over the period of six weeks. As you can see, forwards playing in Germany and Italy took on increased passing responsibilities while team leaders in La Liga started to look more for the goal than the assist.

In Part three of our investigation into Scoring Stats, we’ll look at which players are the most effective in Europe – who provides the largest boost to their club not over the course of a season, but per game. In the meantime, for all the raw data, visit Balanced Sports Scoring Stats page.

Matthew Wood contributes regularly to Soccerlens.  He writes at Balanced Sports and you can also follow him on Twitter @balanced_sports.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Argentine giants River Plate are enduring the bleakest period in its 110 year existence after succumbing to what seemed nothing more than an improbable assumption, relegation to the second tier of their domestic game. The thought of one of South America’s premier entities falling from grace  would have seemed an absurd thought, yet the old cliché of ‘anything can happen in football’ has certainly echoed its purpose. Bearing that in mind, Los Millonarios are not the first, nor the last, big name club to fall below the trap door.

Soccerlens takes a look back at some of the star studded clubs that have slipped through the cracks from their top tier leagues and into the lower echelons of their domestic game.

River Plate: 2011

Where else to begin other than with South America’s wounded animal. Daniel Passarella was once idolised as a player at the Estadio Monumental Antonio, as well as across the whole of his native Argentina having lead his nation to their inaugural World Cup triumph on home soil in 1978.  Now he is being lambasted with criticism as the River club president is having the finger well and truly pointed at him for the club’s plight.

River failed to overturn a two goal deficit from their first-leg with Belgrano in Sunday’s promotion/relegation play-off, resigning them to National B. Playing at home, the team in red and white could only salvage a 1-1 draw with the game being called off a minute from time as trouble flared in the stands. The home supporters vented their anger, leading to 89 people being injured as trouble spilled onto the streets of Buenos Aires.

River have been Argentine champions a record 33 times. It remains to be seen just how long it will be before they can contemplate claiming another.

Juventus: 2006

The most successful team in calico ended up winning yet another league title in 2006 – only to end up playing in Serie B three months later. The Old Lady’s performances on the pitch did not culminate in their demise, but instead from the overtures of wrong doing by personnel off it.

Calciopoli, the Italian match fixing scandal that tainted the home nation’s World Cup celebrations in the summer of 2006, resulted in Juve being hung out to dry following claims that general manager Luciano Moggi had been in dialogue with referees to influence the outcome of matches – which ultimately proved to be accurate. The club was originally demoted to Serie C1 but following an appeal, were instead relegated to the second-tier of Serie B. They were also stripped off their 2005 and 2006 league titles

Despite a nine point deduction, the club came straight back up in its first attempt having held onto star names such as Pavel Nedved and Alessandro Del Piero – who ended up being top-scorer with 21 goals. However, despite being runners-up in the Scudetto in 2009, the club has failed to reach the dizzy heights it once gravitated, with last season’s failure to qualify for Europe a clear indication.

Leeds United: 2004

Leeds United, a proper football club. Steeped in history and tradition, the Whites were on the verge of ruling Europe in 1975 but just fell short to Franz Beckenbauer’s Bayern Munich. Fast forward 29-years and the proud Yorkshire club were consigned to relegation.

Big money transfers and high wages resulted in Leeds’ demise. Then chairman Peter Ridsdale assumed his benefactor like stance would result in a period of success as he borrowed from banks to fund big money names such as Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Keane and Robbie Fowler – to name a few. Despite getting to the semi-finals of the Champions League and presenting genuine title charges, the results began to flounder and missed out on qualification for Europe’s premier competition in 2002.

That began a real domino effect as manager David O’Leary was axed along with a mass sale of players to try and ease their crippling debts. The failure to make it into the Champions League had proved to be catastrophic and Ridsdale’s reckless spending had been nothing more but suicidal.

They were relegated in 2004, a shadow of the team that had contested on the grandest stage of European football three years prior.  The club were even forced to sell their training ground and Elland Road to pay back loans. They went into administration in 2007 resulting in a 10 point deduction and subjecting them to the third tier of English football for the first time in their history.

Atletico Madrid: 1999

After narrowly avoiding the drop in 1995, Atletico went under a renaissance to lift the La Liga title the following year under the stewardship of Radomir Antic. Not only that, they completed the double by clinching the Cop del Rey thanks to an extra-time winner by Milinko Pantic against Barcelona.

The future looked bright for Los Rojiblanocs as they hoped to dislodge themselves from the shadow of neighbours Real Madrid. However, despite huge investment in a number of players including Christian Vieri, it would prove to be their downfall. An array of changes in the dugout along with uncertainty in the boardroom resulted in one of the marquee names of Spanish football to slip through the cracks in 2000 and into the Segunda Division.

Club president Jesus Gil came under scrutiny as he was suspended for misusing club funds – ultimately leading to his departure after 13 years at the helm. Those series of events more or less hammered the nail in Atleti’s coffin.

Napoli: 1998

Much like Nottingham Forest (to come), Napoli were the equivalent from the peninsula. A small southern Italian club would rise above their northern counterparts and bath in a period of greatness in the late eighties. The acquisition of Diego Maradona in 1984 would culminate in him leading the Neapolitans from the depths of obscurity and into the promise land. The Aquile would end up clinching two Scudetto, the Coppa Italia and a UEFA Cup.

However the club gradually began to fall from grace. The departure of Maradona and host of integral names culminated into a domino effect as Napoli began to languish in mid-table throughout the nineties. Financial constraints saw a lack of investment which resulted in the club being relegated to Serie B in 1998, having only won two games all season. They did gain promotion two years later but ended up going straight back down. This heaped more misery on the club as financial turmoil threatened to diminish its existence. Upon its bankruptcy the FIGC relegated the club to Serie C1 despite achieving safety in Serie B. If that was not bad enough the club was robbed of its history. Società Sportiva Calcio Napoli was seemingly no more.

That was until Aurelio De Laurentiis arrived, a successful businessman and a Neapolitan who funded a new club in Naples under the name of Napoli Soccer. He wanted his beloved city to behold a football club and even under its new name the club still drew in 50,000 fans into the Stadio San Paolo, shattering Serie C1 records. Amazingly the club had the highest average attendance in the whole of Italian football. Just behind the two Milanese clubs in Milan and Inter.

De Laurentiis reacquired Napoli’s history in 2006 as he succeeded in getting the club’s name restored to Società Sportiva Calcio Napoli. The club was well and truly back on track under his ownership and the Azzurri got promoted to Serie B in 2006 before finally returning to the dizzy heights of Serie A in 2007 where they have gradually progressed in the last four years.

Nottingham Forest: 1993

Forest was nothing more than a mediocre club languishing in England’s second-tier prior to the arrival of manager Brian Clough in 1975. ‘Old Big Head’ went on to create what can only be described as a miracle. Within five years the club not only gained promotion to the top flight, they went on to win it at the first attempt – capturing the European Cup the following year – and then succeeded in defending it. To put into context just how big an achievement that was, it would be like Norwich City replicating the exact same feat within the next few years.

Having picked up their second European Cup in Madrid, the club had cemented a legacy. The team that consisted of John Robertson, Garry Birtles, John McGovern and Peter Shilton will go down as one of the greatest in English football – no doubt. However, as magical as Clough’s time had been he was unable to prevent their relegation during the inaugural season of the Premier League in 1993.

It would turn out to be Clough’s final campaign and although the devastation of relegation was bad enough, Reds fans were more stricken over the departure of their manager of 18 years. Had it not been for him, Nottingham Forest would never have achieved those epic feats.

Aston Villa: 1987

The Birmingham club enjoyed its defining era in the early eighties. Ron Saunders guided the club to its first domestic league championship in 71 years and entry into the European Cup. Although the defence of their title did not go according to plan – accompanied with tension between Saunders and the board that reached breaking point – they went on to win club football’s most coveted prize and a place in the history books. Saunders didn’t foresee the European Cup win as he tendered his resignation. His assistant Tony Barton subsequently filled the managerial void.

Despite their success on the field, the club were in the red financially with a debt of £1.6m (astronomical money back in those days). This was down to high wages along with money being borrowed to renovate the North Stand at Villa Park. Chairman Ron Bendall sold his 42% stake to former chairman Doug Ellis prior to the club’s UEFA Super Cup victory over Barcelona but it would end up being that generation’s last hurrah as the likes of Tony Morley and Dennis Mortimer parted company with the club.

Villa’s decline continued through the mid-eighties and subsequently succumbed to relegation in 1987 – five years after being champions of Europe.

Manchester United: 1974

Sir Matt Busby guided The Red Devils to a long overdue European Cup triumph in 1968 and becoming the first English club to win the coveted cup. The great man resigned a year later, marking the end of an era as the likes of Bobby Charlton and George Best entered their twilight years.

United would begin to diminish following Busby’s departure and despite a brief stint back in the dugout it was not enough to overturn the club’s fortunes. Tommy Docherty took over the reins from Frank O’Farrell in 1972 and saved the club from relegation, but failed to do so the following year in 1974.

They were all but mathematically down prior to their relegation as club legend Denis Law, who was then playing for the blue half of the city, sealed his old club’s fate in a 1-0 win. United were down, six years after being European champions.

Follow Ross on Twitter: @RossMackiewicz

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

It is fallacy that a goalkeeper’s worth is measured in statistics. They can be measured only through very few statistics – goals conceded, shots faced, clearances or saves made or finally, a combination of all of the above. Numbers can only tell us so much. What they do tell us though, is in some measurable areas, Iker Casillas and Petr Cech are fading slightly.

With NHL goalkeepers, quality is assessed according to two numbers: GAA (goals allowed average) and Save Percentage. Though often used to crucify allegedly-underperforming netminders, GAA reflects a team’s tempo and defence as much as it does the quality of a goalkeeper. The more a team attacks and takes chances, the more possessions result with the results being increased shots at both ends – inevitably leading to more goals. Save percentage indicates a goaltender’s ability to stop a puck travelling towards him at speed – often highly dependent again on clarity of vision and lead-up play.

The same applies in football. A goalkeeper can only be expected to make so many saves per game as the goalmouth is larger and they have more duties than just acting as backstop. Football custodians need to be able to sweep the ball, come off their goal-line just so and finally, like their frozen brethren command and organise their defence.

Numbers can’t be expected to justify a goalkeeper’s position – Ben Foster of Birmingham City was amongst their best players this season (and statistically very similar to predecessor Joe Hart) yet his numbers barely reflect that and the Blues went down ignominiously. But where we can evaluate Xavi by the number of passes and completions he makes – notwithstanding his leadership – so can we get some small statistical undersatnding of goalkeepers through GAA and Save Percentage.

Who, of Europe’s regular goalkeepers, had the best season by these statistical measures?

The following numbers were compiled using raw data from ESPN Soccernet. For full details, you can visit Balanced Sports’ Goalkeeper Stats page.

The Top Ten in Europe by Save Percentage (minimum fifteen starts):

And the top ten by GAA:

With two numbers assessed in this manner, overlap is desirable as they indicate a surety both of defence and a keeper possessing either remarkable foresight or incredible athleticism. That way, we can suggest that Abbiati, Weidenfeller and the redoubtable Victor Valdes each had, among others, outstanding seasons. Also we can ruminate that both Iker Casillas and Petr Cech either began to display the first signs of age or infirmity, or an alarming predisposition to be “hung out to dry” Jack-Warner style by their defence.

This assertion is backed up – though tenuously, it must be said – by the fact that both appeared in the best GAA table but were only barely above average in Save Percentage. That their GAA scores are so high yet their save percentages are low indicates that when opposing players managed to get through the Chelsea or Real Madrid defence, those clubs’ keepers were either out of position (by their fault or their defence’s) or beaten by a succession of remarkable shots. Either could have happened. The only other possible explanation is that they each made a few howlers – like this Enckelman beauty.

This is further reinforced by the fact that neither faced a particularly large amount of shots. According to ESPN’s raw data (used for their uniform statistic-keeping across Europe), Almeria’s Diego Alves made the most saves per game – an astounding 4.79 per game. The average across Europe was 3.31 per game; Casillas made the second fewest saves per game (behind Weidenfeller) at 2.31 while only 13 custodians made fewer saves than Cech’s 2.61. This may seem harsh given both allowed less than a goal per game, but both may face increased scrutiny next year – for their performance, though very good, did not match up either to their reputations nor the exceedingly high standards both have set for themselves.

Both contribute so much to their teams it would be unthinkable to bench them – especially were Ross Turnbull to be given a start in Cech’s stead. While their on-field performance may not have suffered much, each of these legendary goalkeepers’ metrics are falling slightly. Look for a bounce-back season next year from each.

You can see the full list of European Goalkeeping Statistics at Balanced Sports’ Goalkeeper Stats page.

For more analysis and commentary, shoot across to Balanced Sports.  You can also follow Matthew Wood on Twitter @balanced_sports

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

101 goalkeepers made over ten starts in Europe’s four major leagues during season 2010-12. Another fifty-six made at least one start in either the English Premiership, La Liga, the Bundesliga or Serie A. So after thirty eight games (thirty-four in Germany), which goalkeeper is best?

Of course evaluating custodians purely by stats is a fraught and inaccurate business. Goalkeepers, by their demeanour and wits bring more to a team than simply stopping shots, as per NHL netminders. They also command and organise their defence as well as arrange their players in best positions to defend set pieces. Also, they are often not at fault for the goals conceded, being beaten by lackadaisical or poor defending.

That’s not to say that quantification of a goalkeeper’s performance is useless. For one thing, we can evaluate definitively the differences across leagues.

GAA = Goals Allowed Average. Note the term “Start” has been used rather than “Games”. Due to the data available, we weren’t able to evaluate when goalkeepers conceded after coming on as a substitute. This also means that all the goals scored in a league throughout the course of the season may not be included in this table.

Perhaps as a result of a slower game tempo, of a reliance on a star individual, miserly defence or even plain and simple goalkeeping ability, Serie A produced consistently the best goalkeeper metrics across the board. That is, Goalkeepers in Italy conceded less goals per game, had a higher save percentage and produced a high level of saves per start.

Italian football has been notorious in the public sphere for it’s slower pace – unless you’re Napoli or Udinese this season – and infamous for low goalscoring. That isn’t necessarily borne out here – while the GAA was lower than in the other three major leagues, the increased Save Percentage counteracts that. This could also be a tactical measure, where Italian defenders are more “pigeon-holed” as defensive stoppers, eschewing forward play in favour of stolid defence.

Most surprising was the relative decrease in saves across the water in England. The Premiership produced the second-lowest save percentage and the second-highest GAA. Again, tactical considerations could be keeping these averages low or simply that the offensive play is superior. This could both back up and dispel the popular preconception that the Premier League is the most exciting and balanced in Europe, so while it’s interesting data it’s hardly definitive. While this table takes into account goalkeeper performance, it is we have said, impossible to divorce that totally from a defence’s (in)ability.

How would these numbers look then, if we removed the backups? Most clubs have one primary goalkeeper and at least one creditable custodian in reserve – take for example Italian Champions AC Milan who fielded Christian Abbiati thirty-five times during 2010-11 and Marco Amelia during the remaining three matches. The following table has removed all the players with less than ten league starts. The numbers don’t change much at all:

The greatest difference between the two is a minor increase in German Saves per Start and Save Percentage, while Spanish Save Percentage increased mildly as well. The GAAs, though changed in all leagues except Serie A, were minor adjustments. While it was a nice thought that a league’s overall goalkeeping quality could indicate how crucial defences were to the numbers, it is unproveable with the above results.

It’s perhaps telling that the greatest difference in the table above comes from Germany & La Liga’s goalkeeping starts: during the course of the Spanish season, forty-three players got a start between the sticks. Thirty-eight Goalkeepers got starts in the Bundesliga (forty-two, if adjusted for a twenty-team league), thirty-nine Italian league players and thirty-seven in the EPL. While the vast majority of each team’s matches were played by the starting GK (over 90% in all leagues), Germany had the most trust in their backups.

This means that backup keepers, whether for reasons of injury, form or rotation claimed 9.93% of the available starts in Germany while in Italy, starters accounted for an enormous 96.3% of the available starts.

In part two, we’ll go through Europe’s best and brightest goalkeepers by save percentage, Goals Allowed average and by league. In the meantime, you can find all the raw data here at Balanced Sports’ Goalkeeper Stats page.

For more analysis and comment, shoot across to Balanced Sports.  You can also follow Matthew Wood on Twitter @balanced_sports

From Soccerlens.com - Football News