Summer Transfer Frenzy: Are Strikers Worth Their Weight in Goals?

Jun

2009

Summer Transfer Frenzy: Are Strikers Worth Their Weight in Goals?

Written by BD Condell

Huntelaar - worth his weight in gold?

The summer transfer market just went off with a couple of high powered Exocet missiles from central Spain, leaving some of us thinking that nothing will ever be the same again. A seemingly obscene (vulgar even!) amount of money may be about to change hands with many of Europe’s top clubs in the market for a striker (amongst others).

Nothing excites the fan more than a proven goal-scorer donning the shirt and declaring his intent to a nose full of microphones.

Let me clarify at the outset that I am talking about strikers here not creative attacking players, regardless of how prolific they might be in terms of goals. Think in terms of the old fashioned centre-forward as opposed to the inside-right or inside-left or the No.10, a term some like to use to make the distinction. Stateside they struggle a little with this concept so I’ll stay well away from talking about ‘offensive’ players as only some of those about to be mentioned are actually that!

Carlos Tevez was the subject of much divided opinion amongst Manchester United fans recently. “Sign him up!” rang out from several tiers at Old Trafford on more than one occasion towards the end of the season and Carlos milked it to the fullest! Others, however, didn’t think him worth the money. “All perspiration and no inspiration” the other camp declared, and “he just doesn’t score enough for a striker!” or “No better than Kuyt” was the worst insult I saw levelled in this debate. Ouch!

And then there were the inevitable comparisons with Berbatov. “The wrong player was let go!” some United fans cried, whilst others insist that Berba “has far more class and talent than Carlos”. Work rate and enthusiasm score heavily in Tevez’s favour whilst a languid style and sulky demeanor weigh against Berbatov.

Down at The Emirates most Arsenal fans have seemingly lost patience with Adebayor, as it appears has Arsene. “Lazy and a bad attitude” sums up the case for the prosecution as does “No loyalty and disruptive in the dressing room.” or “With Van Persie and Arshavin in the ranks who needs him anyway…..?”

I’ve always wondered about that “disruptive in the dressing room” thing! Are we talking about the puerile pulling of teammate’s hair and flicking elastic bands at the unsuspecting or is it the more sinister practice of declaring that one has the biggest willy and constantly calling for a tape measure if challenged? Please share your thoughts if you have an insight!

Meanwhile, over at Anfield Liverpool fans will tell you that “Torres is the best pound for pound striker in the world at present” (someday they’ll go metric in the UK) and many neutrals/rivals (including yours truly) would agree with that assessment. The issue there is the need for a support/ back-up striker.

The transfer market rumour machine is out of the blocks and we hear that Benzema, Eto’o, Ibrahimovic, David Villa and Aguero could all be bought at the right price (monopoly money in all cases!). Santa Cruz has already signed for City and Tevez is likely to follow suit very soon. Real Madrid have made Huntelaar and Van Nistelrooy ‘available’ while the intentions of Ancelotti regarding Anelka and Drogba are not yet clear. Pato has aroused Chelsea’a interest and Forlan could yet come under the spotlight.

One hack even suggested, on what must have been a very slow day at the office, that Torres could be off to United! About as likely as Cashley re-signing for Arsenal or Berbatov and Adebayor turning into a couple of grinning sprinters you would have thought! And if some of you think that Baghdad looks ugly right now, put that deal through and you’ll see an instant shift of focus from President Obama regarding the world’s trouble spots!

So how do we actually rate players or, in this case, strikers? There is a certain amount of subjectivity involved but is some of it misguided? Unlike players in any other position there is a clear measurement for strikers………….…the cold currency of goals.

Goals may not be the be all and end all but they’re a damn big piece of the be all and end all if you’re a striker!

Did some fans give too much weighting to Tevez for his ‘likeability’ and work-rate? I’m with the fans who say “show me the money,” or “where’s the beef”……………. the ‘money’ and ‘beef’ in question being found, in this instance, in the ‘goals-scored’ column. Somewhere out there is a rate of goal-scoring that is such as to provoke debate and disagreement amongst fans when judging strikers and somewhere beyond that is a point where debate is benign. But where is that watershed between war and peace?

Make no mistake, 30 goals a season is a cure-all for any player/fan relationship problem you care to mention. Not wishing to demean any section of society but a one-legged cross-dressing hunchback with the moral fibre of a serial killer and a Bartonesque set of party tricks will be the first name on the team sheet every week if he’s netting at the rate of 30 goals a season, even if the begrudgers out there would constantly sneer that he’s totally one-footed (and before you write in, I accept completely that, in terms of political correctness, I haven’t a leg to stand-on on that one).

And yes, that was a rather long-winded and exaggerated way of saying that maybe Berbatov and Adebayor are being harshly judged! It depends on their goal-scoring records and where you draw the imaginary line.

We’re talking about subtle differences here, the subtle differences between the world’s best strikers…..so it’s high time I quit rambling and ‘showed you the money’, so to speak.

I’ve taken 30 current generation strikers and analysed their goals per game stats for your consumption.

But before I reveal my hand I need to be clear that I am talking about strikers. The fact that Ronaldo, Messi and Kaka would rank ‘right up there’ in this analysis is irrelevant. They’re not strikers and their goal contribution, along with everything else that they bring to the party, underlines the reason why, between them, they have won the last three ‘World Player of the Year Awards’ (OK, I spotted the mistake there but in a few months it WILL be correct and I’ll be seen as a visonary!) Ronaldo and Kaka (or in REALity you know who) have started this transfer feeding frenzy in the first place. I’ve left out Henry, Arshavin and Robinho for the same reason.

And yes, it may not be a complete list, although I’ve tried bloody hard to make it one, so if I’ve left out one of your favourites live with it. It’s representative enough to make the point (although right now I’m seriously questioning whether there actually is one!)

Note: Includes full career club and international appearances and goals.

		Ratio	Avg. Goals
Ranking	Player	Games/Goals	50 Games
1	Huntelaar	1.500	33
2	Van Nistelrooy	1.614	31
3	Trezeguet	1.863	27
4	Villa	1.932	26
5	Shevchenko	1.943	26
6	Fabiano	1.989	25
7	Eto’o	1.996	25
8	Crespo	2.011	25
9	Toni	2.067	24
10	Inzaghi	2.076	24
11	Owen	2.078	24
12	Berbatov	2.092	24
13	Drogba	2.147	23
14	Podolski	2.200	23
15	Raul	2.244	22
16	Klose	2.260	22
17	Ibrahimovic	2.309	22
18	Pato	2.333	21
19	Adebayor	2.402	21
20	Benzema	2.403	21
21	Forlan	2.404	21
22	Torres	2.405	21
23	Aguero	2.557	20
24	Totti	2.607	19
25	Keane	2.614	19
26	Rooney	2.659	19
27	Tevez	2.868	17
28	Anelka	2.954	17
29	Van Persie	3.121	16
30	Santa Cruz	3.381	15

So take a minute or two to absorb that and spot where some of your favourites rank. These are the hard facts, the one true measurement we have that can’t be disputed. So what exactly does it clarify? That may come down to individual interpretation but here are some of my observations:

Close the book on the Berbatov v Tevez debate. 7 extra goals in a 50 game season (probably equating to several vital points and/or a cup victory or 2) says it’s Berba every time. Tevez just betters 1 goal in 3 games and ranks a lowly 26th in the pecking order.

And what about Adebayor? He’ll bag you 21 goals while Van Persie only grabs 16, worse than 1 in 3. That surprised me I have to say! And although I excluded Arshavin I can tell you that his ratio is 1 in 4, so if you’re an Arsenal fan don’t bank on many repeats of the Anfield ‘one man show’ in the future.

If Tevez does join Man City he’ll team-up with the truly non-prolific Santa Cruz. Here’s a striker who’ll average 15 goals a season for you! And although Robinho isn’t on the list I’ve run his numbers and can tell you that at 1 goal every 2.93 games he’d come-in just behind Tevez at 28th. So Mark Hughes has bought himself 3 front men who have never worried a 20 goal a season average.

Many people’s No.1 pick, Torres, comes in at a surprisingly low 22nd, 5 goals a season shy of his compatriot Villa and 3 short of Berbatov! So what does this tell us?

Huntelaar at No.1! Now Ruud was not a surprise at No.2 but I was amazed at Huntelaar. A 33 goal average puts him streets ahead of some of the other top strikers. Yes, he has played most of his career in Holland but if he was wearing clogs that makes his record even more impressive, and people have said that he didn’t do it at Madrid but he’s hardly had the chance to take his coat off yet. 8 goals in 20 appearances for Real, in a very disruptive season, was not exactly shabby! Suffice to say that if I get the call from Sir Alex in the next couple of weeks and the question posed is: “Klaas-Jan Huntelaar?” my response will be a hearty “Yes, please!” … which would not have been the case last week.

And what is Robbie Keane doing on the list you ask? Well I thought I’d include him to add a bit of spice. And no! … that’s not an implied reference to Paella, the national dish of Spain. And in mentioning the national dish of Spain if you think I’m going anywhere near any references to restaurants and Waiters you’ll be disappointed! Interesting though that Robbie can drop an average of 19 goals in a 50 game season and considering he only left 7 on the table by Christmas last year that says he still had 12 in his locker. Now if he’d stayed and produced even 4 or 5 of those 12 in that wobbly January/February period could the title now be…………………? No! Let’s not go there!

But of course you’re right!…. and I should know better! Haven’t I written about it before Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics. The above analysis is flawed!

Let’s get back to clichés! Some like to throw scorn on a good cliché but a cliché becomes what it is largely because it’s a truism. I know I’m Irish but that’s not why I’m defending the cliché ridden David O’Leary, and if I might borrow from the great man: “as I say, at the end of the day a striker is only as good as his last season.“

Never a truer word spoken! But let’s just broaden that a little and look at the stats over the last three seasons. If you’re going to splash the cash on a striker you’ll be looking in this direction rather than the above table, so take another 5 to absorb this.

Note: Only includes club appearances/goals, as trying to get an annual breakdown for international games/goals….well…almost cost me a breakdown.

		Ratio	Avg. Goals	Career	Position
Ranking	Player	Games/Goals	50 Games	Position	Change
1	Huntelaar	1.472	34	1	0
2	Van Nistelrooy	1.476	34	2	0
3	Eto’o	1.597	31	7	4
4	Villa	1.730	29	4	0
5	Forlan	1.747	29	21	16
6	Ibrahimovic	1.758	28	17	11
7	Totti	1.800	28	24	17
8	Trezeguet	1.828	27	3	-5
9	Torres	1.908	26	22	13
10	Toni	2.004	25	9	-1
11	Drogba	2.032	25	13	2
12	Benzema	2.048	24	20	8
13	Inzaghi	2.058	24	10	-3
14	Raul	2.102	24	15	1
15	Fabiano	2.137	23	6	-9
16	Pato	2.195	23	18	2
17	Adebayor	2.224	22	19	2
18	Podolski	2.305	22	14	-4
19	Van Persie	2.333	21	29	10
20	Klose	2.339	21	16	-4
21	Berbatov	2.400	21	12	-9
22	Rooney	2.410	21	26	4
23	Crespo	2.414	21	8	-15
24	Keane	2.456	20	25	1
25	Aguero	2.600	19	23	-2
26	Anelka	2.720	18	28	2
27	Owen	2.826	18	11	-16
28	Santa Cruz	2.938	17	30	2
29	Tevez	3.098	16	27	-2
30	Shevchenko	4.208	12	5	-25

So that’s the list for buying purposes and what’s changed?

Huntelaar holds his place at No.1! Definitely worth a punt in my view!

And Ruud also holds onto No.2! if he can stay fit he’s gotta be worth a chance for the likes of Spurs…and was Sir Alex rash in selling him when he did?

David Villa also holds his 4th place. No wonder everyone is interested and Eto’o also surprised me. Worth the money if Barca want to sell?

The big negative movers from the ‘total career’ table are Fabiano, Berbatov, Crespo, Owen and Shevchenko. No surprises there except for Berbatov. Berbatov’s first season at United hurt his stats but he’s still comfortably ahead of Tevez.