Has time run out on Stoke City, Middlesbrough and West Brom?
Welcome to the relegation battle
The Premier League has had everything this season. From managers aplenty facing up to the sack to Steven Gerrard and a night club attack (allegedly!). But in all seriousness this season in England’s top flight has undeniably been one of the most eventful and exciting campaigns ever — and at both ends of the table.
While Sir Alex Ferguson and Manchester United do their best to throw away the title there are arguably more pressing issues facing those clubs locked in a relegation battle. And a battle it most certainly is with no less than nine clubs stuck within ten points of each other with the fear that relegation to the second tier of English football is a distinct possibility.
It is without further ado that I face the music and present to you my personal predictions for the winners and losers in the race to stay alive in the Premier League this season:
Hull City
League Position: 13th / Points: 33 /Â Goal Difference: -17
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April:Â Portsmouth (home) – Draw
11th April:Â Middlesbrough (away) – Draw
18th April: Sunderland (away) – Loss
25th April: Liverpool (home) – Loss
2nd May: Aston Villa (away) – Loss
9th May: Stoke (home) – Win
16th May: Bolton (away) – Loss
24th May: Manchester United (home) – Loss
The Verdict
After a pulsating start to the season Hull were flying high and dreaming of European nights in Madrid and Milan – and you can hardly blame them. Although with just one win in their last 14 Premier League matches, Phil Brown’s side are most certainly involved in this phenomenal scrap to survive the drop.
In my opinion, Hull’s terrific start to the season will just about prove to be their saving grace. If they can get a few positive results against the four teams in a similar predicament (Portsmouth, Middlesbrough, Sunderland and Stoke), then the KC Stadium will play host to Premier League football once again next season.
Michael Turner will hold things together at the back and look out for telling contributions from Manucho and Geovanni as the Tigers look to roar up the table.
Sunderland
League Position: 14th /Â Points: 32 /Â Goal Difference: -10
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: West Ham (away) – Draw
11th April: Manchester United (home) – Loss
18th April: Hull (home) – Win
25th April: West Brom (away) – Win
2nd May: Everton (home) – Loss
9th May: Bolton (away) – Draw
16th May: Portsmouth (away) – Loss
24th May: Chelsea (home) – Loss
The Verdict
At the time when Roy Keane decided to jump ship, Sunderland looked in a state of disarray. Ricky Sbragia came in and initially looked the part yet a poor sequence of results in recent weeks (one win in seven Premier League games) has seen the Black Cats slide into trouble.
Like many of the sides battling against relegation to the Championship, Sunderland’s destiny is most certainly in their own hands. Despite having to face the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Everton, Sbragia knows that decent results against West Brom, Portsmouth, Hull and Bolton will reap rewards.
If Kenwyne Jones can keep himself fit for atleast half of Sunderland’s remaining fixtures, the £15million rated marksmen certainly has the ability to fire the Wearside club to safety.
Portsmouth
League Position: 15th / Points: 32Â / Goal Difference: -14
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: Hull (away) – Draw
11th April: West Brom (home) – Win
18th April: Bolton (home) – Draw
22nd April: Manchester United (away) – Loss
27th April: Newcastle (away) – Loss
2nd May: Arsenal (home) – Loss
9th May: Blackburn (away) – Loss
16th May: Sunderland (home) – Win
24th May: Wigan (away) – Loss
The Verdict
Portsmouth are the only team involved in the relegation dogfight with the luxury, if you can call it that, of a game in hand on their rivals. Unfortunately for them, that game in hand is against current Premier League leaders Manchester United.
That said, Pompey are the form team at the bottom and their fantastic victory over Everton in their latest Premier League fixture was both inspired and decisively crucial. If they can carry that winning mentality into their next two games against Hull and West Brom then, in my opinion, the South Coast club will be absolutely fine.
Stoke City
League Position: 16th / Points: 32Â / Goal Difference: -18
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: West Brom (away) -Â Draw
11th April: Newcastle (home) – Loss
18th April: Blackburn (home) – Draw
25th April: Fulham (away) – Loss
2nd May: West Ham (home) – Loss
9th May: Hull (away) – Loss
16th May: Wigan (home) – Win
24th May: Arsenal (away) – Loss
The Verdict
I’ll hold my hands up and admit that I, for one, predicted Stoke to struggle immensely in England’s top division this season. Well Tony Pulis and his side have certainly proved me wrong and they may even rub salt into the wound if they can successfully avoid relegation.
Victory over Middlesbrough may just have condemned Boro to relegation and if the Potters can grab a few more points from the Britannia Stadium, they should have enough. Although Hull, Blackburn, Newcastle and West Brom will be in no mood to offer any favours and I believe that Stoke’s lack of top-flight experience may prove to be a decisive factor.
James Beattie has thus far proved an inspired January signing although the former Sheffield United striker will need to grab a few more goals yet to keep Stoke in the Premier League.
Blackburn Rovers
League Position: 17th / Points: 31 /Â Goal Difference: -16
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: Tottenham (home) – Loss
11th April: Liverpool (away) – Loss
18th April: Stoke (away) – Draw
26th April: Wigan (home) – Draw
2nd May: Man City (away) – Loss
9th May: Portsmouth (home) – Win
16th May: Chelsea (away) – Loss
24th May: West Brom (home) – Win
The Verdict
Blackburn face West Brom on the last day of the season and I firmly believe that this will prove the difference between survival and relegation for Sam Allardyce and his team. I feel that by this time West Brom will be out of the reckoning and Rovers will know that a big performance in front of their home fans will do the trick.
Roque Santa Cruz has endured a frustrating season blighted with injury and a failure to find the back of the net. Rovers’ fans will be hoping the Paraguayan will come good in the next couple of months and with an expected return to action within the next few weeks, Santa could deliver the gift of goals to keep Blackburn in the league.
Newcastle United
League Position: 18th /Â Points: 29 /Â Goal Difference: -13
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: Chelsea (home) – Loss
11th April: Stoke (away) – Win
19th April: Tottenham (away) – Loss
27th April: Portsmouth (home) – Win
2nd May: Liverpool (away) – Loss
9th May: Middlesbrough (home) – Win
16th May: Fulham (home) – Draw
24th May: Aston Villa (away) – Loss
The Verdict
So there we have it, love him or loathe him but Mike Ashley has played his proverbial trump card. Whether it turns out to be an awful decision or a stroke of genius, Alan Shearer’s appointment is certainly a gamble.
With Shearer at the helm, the Toon Army will either sink or float, swimming won’t come into the equation at this crucial final hurdle of the season. With no managerial experience, Newcastle’s former number nine will need to learn stupidly quickly and at the highest level too.
Newcastle face a somewhat tricky run-in with tough games away at Tottenham, Liverpool and Aston Villa while Chelsea visit St. James’ Park on Saturday. Clearly the decisive fixtures for Big Al and his charges will come against opposition in and around the relegation zone. Whether you call them six pointers, massive games or season defining moments, Newcastle’s results against Portsmouth, Middlesbrough and Stoke will undoubtedly be momentous in their battle for survival.
Middlesbrough
League Position: 19th / Points: 27 / Goal Difference: -21
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: Bolton (away) – Draw
11th April: Hull (home) – Draw
18th April: Fulham (home) – Win
26th April: Arsenal (away) – Loss
2nd May: Manchester United (home) – Loss
9th May: Newcastle (away) – Loss
16th May: Aston Villa (home) – Win
24th May: West Ham (away) – Loss
The Verdict
Gareth Southgate has been flirting with the sack pretty much from the off during his tenure with Middlesbrough. It has been well documented that Boro chairman Steve Gibson has boldly offered his full support to the former England centre-half at this notoriously important part of the season.
In all fairness to Southgate, it wouldn’t be unfair to suggest that Middlesbrough’s players have to take a share of the responsibility for simply not performing to expectations. Afonso Alves came in with all the hype expected when a Brazilian signs on at the Riverside but he has underperformed. Boro’s supposed ‘star man’ Stewart Downing has hardly set the world alight and Jeremie Aliadiere has only managed two goals from 22 Premier League starts this season (even Ryan Shawcross has managed more in his last four games!).
With morale at an all time low, a whole host of players desperate to leave in the summer and a manager who has seemingly lost the confidence of his dressing room, unfortunately Boro fans I believe that the only way is down for your club this season.
West Bromwich Albion
League Position: 20th / Points: 24 /Â Goal Difference: -29
Remaining Fixtures/My Predictions:
4th April: Stoke (home) – Draw
11th April: Portsmouth (away) – Loss
19th April: Man City (away) – Loss
25th April: Sunderland (home) – Loss
2nd May: Tottenham (away) – Loss
9th May: Wigan (home) – Win
16th May: Liverpool (home) – Loss
24th May: Blackburn (away) – Loss
The Verdict
With only 28 points on the board and a goal difference of -29, saying that West Brom face an uphill struggle to avoid relegation would be something of an understatement.
The Baggies will certainly not give up the ghost under Tony Mowbray but it would have to be a miraculous run of form to see West Brom stay up and I can’t see it happening.
Six points from their next two games against Stoke and Portsmouth would certainly help turn things around but one would predict that the damage has already been done.
_________________________________________________________________________________________
The Final Standings?
|
Tea |
Team………………. |
P |
W |
L |
D |
PT |
|
13 |
38 |
10 |
18 |
10 |
40 |
|
|
14 |
38 |
10 |
18 |
10 |
40 |
|
|
15 |
Newcastle United |
38 |
9 |
17 |
12 |
39 |
|
16 |
Blackburn Rovers |
38 |
9 |
17 |
12 |
39 |
|
17 |
Hull City |
38 |
9 |
18 |
11 |
38 |
|
18 |
Stoke City |
38 |
9 |
19 |
10 |
37 |
|
19 |
Middlesbrough |
38 |
8 |
19 |
11 |
35 |
|
20 |
West Bromwich Albion |
38 |
7 |
24 |
7 |
28 |
I realise that with these predictions I have inevitably opened myself up to some stark criticism which I am happy to accept as until the end of the season I am in no position to defend/dig a hole for myself.
As a Manchester United supporter I must categorically state that I have no personal preference for any of the teams who inevitably succumb to relegation and my decisions have been based purely on opinion rather than bias.
I look forward to your comments and predictions.
Stephen Darwin is it? You have no idea what your talking about. Full stop.
Ok Jack d, would you care to elaborate on that though?
You should be on stage mate you are a clown .are you from manchester probably not ,i support stoke And you have us down to get 4 points at home do you work for paddy power because they underestimated us on the first day of the season also.See you next season in the premier .oh And by the way i loved it when gerrard kissed that camera PRICELESS.
Nice call Darwin. On February 10th, I predicted:
17 Blackburn
18 Stoke City
19 Middlesbrough
20 WBA
You damn right!
Check your current form stats boys dull city blackburn And the barcoders will all finish below stoke
i think stoke will stay up actually.they are more than capable of winning at least 3 of their home games defintely.i see WBA,boro going down,and i had thought newcastle too until now.shearers arrival could provide the morale boost to maybe keep them up,although i still wouldnt be surprised to see them go down.that team is just not good enough
I’m not one for all out abuse, but as a Stoke fan I feel that this article is either very badly reasearched or plain deluded. How you can predict Stoke losing at home to Newcastle and West Ham and only winning one home game for the rest of the season I do not know, when we have only lost three times at home all season, those being to Manchester United, Chelsea and Everton, have the seventh best home record in the league, winning as many at home as Arsenal and Chelsea, and are unbeaten at home in 2009.
West Brazil, Boro and Newcastle to go down for me, Stoke are here to stay.
I*T*P*L – Thanks for your comment, atleast you abused my opinion rather than me as a person! Appreciate that!
I did research the article thoroughly and did note that Stoke have a fantastic home record. I just believe that with the pressure on and results at home being a necessity rather than a luxury, that home form may disintegrate.
We shall see come the end of the season but I must admit, in announcing my opinion on the bottom three, the team finishing in 17th was certainly the toughest to predict.
I certainly wish Stoke the best of luck in fighting relegation, your boys have done you proud this season whatever happens.
I am so tired of Stoke fans blowing off on sites all over the internet – they have one thing right – they have performed far beyond the ability of the squad this year – it tears my heart out to listen to thier whinings about ” unfair criticism” in the press – its a team of thugs managed by a man who gives them free rein to kick and clutch thier way into survival – win at any cost and with any method. Without Rory Delaps goals early in the season they would be well below my beloved” West Brazil”.
Tony Mowbray got it wrong this season – but I fear for the future of our game if the only way to survive is the Pulis way.
Your right mate it does not matter how many points you get its about playing the right way that counts ha ha ha that manager of yours is another clown And will lose his job well before the special one tony pulis.oh And how is carson playing for you say no more.
What disappoints me about the article is the failure to consider the impact of current form. The inertia of recent results, whether that is Middlesbro’s 1 win in 18 or Hull’s recent run, psycologically must have an impact on the players, no matter what they say to the media. Just looking at the body language of the Boro players as they trudged off the Britannia pitch last week spoke volumes … they are down and they know it.
Our friend from West Brom is absolutely correct – Stoke have performed well above their ability, and its taken some innovative thinking to do it. Narrower pitch, the Delap long throw – how many others have copied that (Chris Brunt comes to mind) and let’s not forget, a lot of money. James Beattie has been a diamond up front when the team was in danger of not scoring enough goals – does Pulis get the praise for that, well yes in some quarters.
What is true however, is that our little team has ruffled some well preened feathers this year, Liverpool, Arsenal and Villa come rapidly to mind, and to use a Dad’s Army phrase “They don’t like it up ‘em.” It’s not always pretty, we accept that but it can be horribly effective, and the name of the game – for this year especially – is to stay in the Premier League and build. Bouncing between leagues causes the sort of instability that means you can’t plan and develop.
So we have a team of fighters, in very probably the coldest and windiest stadium in the Premier League, supported by the most passionate and loudest fans in the division (Sky Sports)who are currently in 8th place in terms of form, and all have a clear and unerring focus – to remain a top flight club.
I have a real soft spot for WBA – Staffordshire team and all that, but Mowbray’s pass and move at all costs has its limitations, and at this point in the year where 6 pointers come up with increasing frequency, style goes out of the window.
It will be interesting to see Alan Shearer’s take on the next few games and how resilent and what changes we will see as they seek to extracate themselves from the clarts.
I think … and I take no pleasure in this at all, that Hull will bottle it and follow Albion and Boro into the Championship. Form matters, fixtures matter, passion matters, style to a large extent doesn’t. Get the job complete and let’s see where we go from there.
Stephen, if you can be a football pundit then so can my 18 month old nephew.
Dave – And you support that statement with what exactly?
I don’t mind being criticised because when you write an article like this, frankly you accept there will be a fair share of flack and I am happy to take it. Although please back-up your childish statements with something constructive, like Psy_clops did in the comment directly before yours.
By the way I say good luck to your 18 month old nephew. He seems to be far more grown up than you that’s for sure. I hear there is a space on MOTD if he fancies that?
Stoke City isn’t even a real team, lol.
Shearer will make no difference at all the mags are still shite. Boro, west brom and newcastle will go down. How can you say newcastle will saty up on there form?
FTM
Look stephen football is all about opinions And being in my mid 30s This is the first time i have seen my team in the premier i saw them in the old first division as a kid And we went down on 17 points .the point i am making is what is your opinion on style of play ,i believe that survivals priority this season And believe that if we achieve this then in the window we will bring in quality like we could not tempt last year .who do you think is right pulis or mowbray ,or entertainment or results.i apologize if i offended you by the clown term But us stoke fans are passionate about our club
And want to stay in this league even though a lot of the media dont .
Doubt spurs will beat blackburn away….
I wrote a similar article on my Stoke blog a while back. Things have moved on since then so a little of what I say is no longer valid, but most of it still stands. If Stephen doesn’t mind a little advertising perhaps people would like to take a look.
http://stoke.blogsfc.com/premier-league-survival-battle-rages-as-season-nears-climax-2.html
Hater i shall treat that comment with the contempt it deserves
The thing is, the margins at the final standings are so narrow, only 2 or 3 of the 50 or 60 games predicted need to be incorrect and the whole table is inaccurate. This prediction game is one we all play and enjoy, but (rather paradoxically) the method of predicting final standings by way of predicting individual games when there are so many is probably less scientific than just having general thoughts about the teams’ form. So, on the basis of general thoughts and gut feeling, here’s my final standings, which I look forward to looking at again when it’s all said and done: 13 Blackburn; 14 Portsmouth; 15 Hull; 16 Newcastle; 17 Stoke; 18 Sunderland; 19 Middlesbrough; 20 West Brom. Sunderland? Yes, they’re the team whose form would worry me most.
Wba boro are down and them geordies are joining them
see, spurs always blow it…
-.-
Good prediction mr wenger maybe you could give stephen darwin some lessons in predicting football matches as from just checking he only got 2 right this week And dont think you had to be a genius to predict the newcastle chelsea game.
I take it you have give up on this now steve never mind see you next year in the premier go on stoke
@ Local supporter
By no means have I given up! I believe my Middlesbrough and West Brom predictions will still be right but it does look rather like Stoke will be staying up. Full credit to them too.
It’s looking more and more like either Hull or Newcastle but still a long way to go.
Three weeks is a long time in football – even longer for a tipster. I wonder if it’s time to revisit the original article and consider what has changed over the last few weeks, and whether or why the original conclusions of the article need to be developed.
I seem to recall that on a previous post,it was said that stoke were only winning because of the narrower pitch And the long throw.well when we beat west brazil we scored 2 goals in open play And how many teams are trying the long throw now seen plenty doing it lately,stoke have had a lot of doubters but we like proving them wrong .
Seven predictions right thus far this week! That said, probably one of the easiest week’s to predict.
Big game for Hull tonight!
I see you have hull to beat stoke at the weekend i so hope your wrong i would love to see phil brown go down but i dont mind hull as a team they are like stoke And have got far more points than the media expected so funny when you hear the pundits changing their minds each week they know nothing lawrenson is the funniest he gets all his predictions wrong
Well i went hull And i think rory took 1 long throw maybe 2 at the most .yes we beat them fair And with a brilliant goal by lawrence this was another prediction you got wrong steve i have really enjoyed getting back at the critics this year .what are your views on tevez wanting to go liverpool
Well Local Supporter you have certainly got every right to rub my prediction of Stoke being relegated firmly in my face!
Congratulations on what looks certain to be another season in the Premier League.
My views on Tevez? I’d be gutted to see him leave United, especially for someone like Liverpool. Terrific player.
Well steve not blowing my own trumpet but i see that my prediction of wba boro And newcastle has come in thanks for your article have enjoyed it .can you beat barcelona? I think there will be goals And to win it you will have to do it against the odds because i think uefa dont want you to.i see you played de laet an ex stoke player against hull.
it would seem my predictions were right
Heres a prediction for you newcastle to be relegated again next season ,being a stoke fan have watched a lot of championship football And know that they will be everyones cup final And them teams take no prisoners ,they are in for another really bad season i think.
haha would be hysterical if newcastle do a leeds
Jake the mackem bet your loving it up there at the moment winding those barcoders up.see you next season in the premier ha ha ha cant stop laughing at newcastle i have heard some of them are trying to cancel their 3 year season tickets i thought they were the best fans in the world GLORYHUNTERS
haha sure am