Mar
9
2009
Liverpool 91%, Manchester United 67%, Chelsea and Arsenal 58% sure of progressing to last eight of Champions League
All English clubs mathematically assured of quarterfinals
If all mathematical favourites progress in the Champions League, the quarterfinals will consist of four sides from England, a club from Germany, one from Portugal and teams from Greece and Spain:
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- When looking at the history of European competition in a two legged knockout round format, all 51 teams that won the first leg by 5-0 away progressed to the next round, making Sporting CP’s mission virtually impossible.
- Liverpool have percentage wise a 91% chance to reach the last eight following their 1-0 win at Real Madrid a fortnight ago.
- FC Porto’s 2-2 draw at Atlético Madrid made them prohibitive favourites to go through at 84%-16%.
- Panathinaikos and FC Barcelona are both favoured by 77 percentage points to 23 following 1-1 away draws at Villarreal CF and Olympique Lyon respectively.
- Manchester United hold a 67-33 edge over Internazionale as historically two thirds of the sides that earned a first leg goalless draw away from home have advanced.
- Chelsea and Arsenal are slight favourites (58-42) after securing 1-0 home wins against Juventus and AS Roma respectively.
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Odds of advancing to CL quarterfinals following first leg of second round
| Date | Home team 1st leg | Away team 1st leg | Result | Home team | Away team |
| 24 Feb 2009 | Arsenal (ENG) | AS Roma (ITA) | 1-0 | 58% | 42% |
| 24 Feb 2009 | Atlético Madrid (ESP) | FC Porto (POR) | 2-2 | 16% | 84% |
| 24 Feb 2009 | Internazionale (ITA) | Manchester United (ENG) | 0-0 | 33% | 67% |
| 24 Feb 2009 | Olympique Lyon (FRA) | FC Barcelona (ESP) | 1-1 | 23% | 77% |
| 25 Feb 2009 | Chelsea (ENG) | Juventus (ITA) | 1-0 | 58% | 42% |
| 25 Feb 2009 | Real Madrid (ESP) | Liverpool (ENG) | 0-1 | 9% | 91% |
| 25 Feb 2009 | Sporting CP (POR) | Bayern München | 0-5 | 0% | 100% |
| 25 Feb 2009 | Villarreal CF (ESP) | Panathinaikos (GRE) | 1-1 | 23% | 77% |
I’m big Juve fan but I think that Chelsea have 80% chanse to go in next round…Juve play without Sissoko and Camoranesi….that is big blow !
Can you explain the “mathematical” basis for the above odds? I mean, I know there’s not a huge chance of Sporting beating Bayern Munich 6-0, but is it really mathematically ZERO?
It appears to be based on prior games. The article states that of the 51 times an away team has won the first leg, none have seen a turnaround of fortunes in the second tie. Thus, history is the mathematical basis.
Thanks Ricardo – I guess I should have read the article a little more carefully, but it was that “mathematically assured” and the 0% chance of winning for Sporting that switched on my pedantic gene.
Records are made to be broken, however…
9% for Madrid? right…
i completely disagree with the liverpool and man utd prediction.. italian and spanish clubs can hit an impact wherever they are and that includes in england.. english football is not ultimate and man utd just drew 0-0 at san siro.. a 1-1 draw in old trafford will see the champions kicked out of the title race and i can see that as a chance.. as for liverpool, they are in a dumpling now and being wrapped up by midsboro recently, they sure wanna win but if Real can show them wat the spanish galacticos are named off, liverpool will see a tough battle at anfield i assure u.. really.. seeing is believing..
thats not a prediction neither someones choice… that is based on all games and based on the results of the first leg, the % of clubs that go through next round… thats why sporting is 0%, cause till now no one came back from 0-5… (it doesnt mean its impossible!) it doesnt have to do with team A or team B, but with the results in 1st leg. this is just facts, and a cool article it is
btw, if this was based on the club strenghs,etc… porto would have 200% chance of going to next round! hehehe
PS: hulk, best player ever!!!
I see… so the percentages are based on what’s happened in the past… so for example Chelsea getting 58%, does that mean in the past the team that is leading 1-0 from the first leg, only 58% of them have progressed?
I think what would be better is to use the bookies or betfair odds on the team to qualify from the tie, as the market usually is quite spot on.
man xcept bayern,i dont tink any other club stands a clear chance of semis advancemen,incuding my barca.Notwithstanding,arsenal is an away specialist,roma may not find there roots.If care is not taken,Lpool may walk alone 2nite.
Leading 1-0 from the first leg played at home. For those leading 1-0 from the first leg played away, all of them have progressed.
i tink barca are gonna win everything this year