Something in me was truly hoping this doesn’t happen… The state of Manchester United debt is known to all fans, but the scale of the catastrophe that is losing Ronaldo, blinded us from that fact. The quest to replace our stolen idol had consumed us, and made us fathom about all sorts of saviors that might become our next “It Boy”.  From Ribery to Aguero, without forgetting Benzema the list of potential messiahs went on.

Just yesterday Eto’o was being pimped by his agent to Sir Alex after City Chairman Khaldoon told Barcelona he will not be made a fool of. Seeing the price tag slapped on Eto’o and his wage demands, the Glazers would never go for such a deal, especially since it wasreported last month that they were changing the club’s transfer policy to concentrate on signing players under 26.

What this means is that the Glazers will only be spending serious money on players who can be resold for profit later on. This should automatically disqualify Eto’o as a transfer candidate, but seeing as how very few clubs are interested in the Cameroonian striker, I had a feeling if the price tag dropped by the end of the transfer window, this deal might see the light of day.

But all that ended today as Sir Alex stated he will not be dragged into an escalating transfer market, saying: “I think that has concluded our business” while handing Owen the No 7 shirt.

It seems both Owen and United management have the firm belief that once Michael steps on that pitch in Kuala Lumpur on Saturday in the No 7 shirt vacated by Cristiano Ronaldo he will be that “wonderkid” we all love again.

“It doesn’t hurt [to be written off] when you believe in yourself, but if this challenge doesn’t create a hunger and put a spring in my step, then nothing will (…) I am as hungry as ever and I don’t need to prove it to people who question that. Playing for a manager like Sir Alex Ferguson and a club like United says it all for me.” – said Owen. As far as I’m concerned, from your mouths to God’s ears Michael.

But us United fans are left with a bitter taste in our mouth, the feeling that our squad has been left weakened. Sir Alex insists “No matter what players we have got in, we are still going to be strong next season.” – True we have a squad that most teams would only dream of, but we sold Ronaldo for God’s sake! Shouldn’t we get some sort of consolation prize?

And this is where the sh!t hits the fan, a few years ago if you asked any economist about the potential dangers or running a business based on a debt model, he would have laughed so hard his sides would have hurt, the markets were booming, debt was the way to do business. I even said it back then “If there was one team that can pull off being ran through debt, its Manchester United”.

Well we can certainly pull it off, but we will have to pay the price. It seems obvious seeing the transfer policy adopted by the Glazers that we will be in the business of making Ronaldos and selling them to the likes Real for a while. When Sir Alex says : “We are in the middle of a very difficult summer in football because it has been very difficult to get value. But I think we have got good value and that is the right way to go for us (…) As for Benzema, as far as we were concerned he was beyond our value. People have got to try and put a value on players which they think is fair. Lyon have done well to get 42m euro for him (…) What does that tell people about Manchester United? It tells you we are sensible. Real Madrid are not nearly as afraid of debt as anyone else in the world, but we’re happy the way we operate.”

What I understand is; we are already in huge debt and we have to pay it back, Real are not and they’re buying players left and right, inflating price tags everywhere. So I will do what I do best. I will mold youngsters with huge potential into stars… Oh wait, will Joel and Avram sell them?

Here is the reality check: Not only is the “sugar-daddy” business football model proving to be the best in these rough times, but the more serious issue is that we will be playing a different kind of football next season. Not only is Valencia not in the same class as Ronaldo, but he’s a different type of winger, more orthodox than the attacking all-rounder Ronaldo was, he will dribble and distribute, putting the serious task of goal creation on the shoulders of  Rooney and whoever is next-to-him/in-front-of-him.

“Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov are Ferguson’s first-choice strikers and Owen could be used as an impact substitute in deadlocked games, or as a flat-track bully to convert chances against lesser opponents.” said Rob Stewart of the Telegraph, a statement shrugged off by Graeme Souness in the same article. 

Former England manager Glen Hoddle went a step further in saying Owen Will Be Better Than Tevez with “the likes of Rooney, Berbatov and Valencia around him” …  ”He will thrive at United.”

Well thats the squad for next year folks, it might be nice being an underdog for once!

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Well I have to say its good that I’m suffering from insomnia these days, it has allowed me to catch the Copa America on satellite. At two o’clock in the morning I tuned in to watch a a Chilean squad that just wouldn’t go down; a match that would have been much forgotten if Nelson Acosta’s side hadn’t recorded a magnificent 3-2 comeback victory in what has been so far the best match of the competition as drama dominated day two of the tournament.

Oh! … and did i mention that Brazil were outclassed by Mexico?

At the Estadio Cachamay in Puerto Ordaz, Luis Antonio Valencia and Cristian Benitez put Ecuador in front twice. The first time after 16 minutes, off a two-pass play initiated off a free kick by goalkeeper Cristian Mora. The second after 23 minutes off a strong header by Segundo Castillo. Only for Humberto Suazo to equalize each time; with a powerful kick from the edge of the area in the 21st after a neat one-two and from inside the area in the 80th after fielding a cross off his chest, riffling the ball into the top of the net

And in the 87th, substitute Carlos Villanueva found the back of the net as he curled a left-footed free-kick to the right post as Ecuador goalkeeper Cristian Mora failed to react.

Also in Puerto Ordaz, Mexico upset Brazil for the second straight time at a major tournament. Brazil played poorly in the first period, in fact Brazil looked helpless till half-time with Diego marked out of the game by Jaime Correa, Brazil were lost in midfield and thus suffered two goals in the space of ten minutes. .

Nery Castillo, the striker of Greek champion Olympiakos showed off his quality touches in the rival box, flicking the ball over defender Maicon and then past goalkeeper Doni without letting it touch the ground in the 21st minute

A Ramon Morales free kick eight minutes later made it 2-0, sealing the defeat for Carlos Dunga’s men in his first competitive match in charge.

In the second half, however, Brazil pressed and deserved at least a goal as they had 11 shots on goal to Mexico’s three, with Robinho in particular trying his luck several times hitting the crossbar in the process. Anderson and Afonso were brought on at halftime, and were able to create a flurry of chances only to be denied by Ochoa.

Guillermo was simply spectacular, he made over half a dozen saves to preserve his clean sheet. After making a brave save at Robinho’s feet he turned a goal bound Afonso volley round the post and then made an unbelievable double save to deny Robinho and Anderson.

Hugo Sanchez biggest win yet since he took over as coach in November and Dunga’s career as coach couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start. Brazil seemed really vulnerable down the left flank and one dimensional on offense while Mexico showcased brilliant attacking prowess and reliable squad depth, which is more than we can say for Brazil.

Just a bad day for the Seleção? Perhaps… But El Tri has the best form of the lot, they just finished playing the Gold Cup and after they’re defeat to the US they seem to have a regained they’re hunger, they’re picardia (the edgy and aggressive Mexican attitude) which was lacking in their Gold Cup endeavor.

Sources: IHT, Bloomberg, ESPN, AP.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

The Copa America kicked-off yesterday in Venezuela with a couple of less than important matches and a colorful opening ceremony. The Pueblo Nuevo Stadium in San Cristóbal hosted a huge fireworks display and dancers dressed in Venezuelan national colors to mark the start of the competition, held in Venezuela for the first time.

The opening match pinned the hosts against Bolivia with the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and his Bolivian counterpart, Evo Morales looking on.

An incident was noted prior to the start of the match when a group of fans booed the leftist Venezuelan leader. Though they were quickly silenced when the the presence of Argentine football legend Diego Maradona was announced through the PA system. Maradona is an avid Chavez supporter.

Maldonado opened the scoring after 21 minutes of play when he fired a shot past the diving Bolivian keeper. The Bolivians fought back and were helped by a Venezuelan own-goal deflection off a Jaime Moreno shot in the 39th minute. Venezuela looked set for the victory after they temporarily regained the lead when midfielder Ricardo Paez chipped past goalkeeper Hugo Suarez with a breakaway goal in the 62nd minute. But Bolivian playmaker Juan Carlos Arce had the final word as he tipped in the equalizer with seven minutes remaining. The home side was thus denied it’s second ever tournament victory.

Earlier, at the Metropolitano Stadium in Merida, a confident Peruvian squad squashed a sluggish Uruguay three goals to none. The impressive attacking force of Jefferson Farfan, Chelsea’s Claudio Pizarro and Hamburg’s Paolo Guerrero buried Peru’s reputation for ineffective football as they pounded through the Uruguayan defense. The Uruguayans began the stronger of the two sides as Villarreal striker Diego Forlan squandered two good chances to open the scoring.

A poorly marked Miguel Villalta converted a Farfan cross heading Peru into the lead in the 27th minute. In the 73rd, substitute Juan Carlos Marino stunned Fabian Carini as he whipped in the second. A wide open Guerrero tapped in the third on a pass from Andres Mendoza after he was denied a goal in the 1^st half as it was deemed offside by the referee.

Uruguayan Manager Oscar Tabarez has been the target of heavy criticism prior to the start of the tournament, and it has not gotten easier for him as has fails to deliver again. Uruguay holds the record for the most Copa wins (14, tie with Argentina) and have been regarded as the perennial dark horses of the tournament. Their lineup is perhaps the most impressive after Argentina’s and Brazil’s (Diego Forlán, Álvaro Recoba, Jorge Fucile, Cristian Rodriguez, Diego Lugano, Fabián Carini), their loss to a team ranked 34 places lower has to be pondered seriously.

Defending champion Brazil faces Mexico today in Puerto Ordaz after Chile takes on Ecuador in the same stadium. Argentina, the 2004 runnerup, opens against the U.S. tomorrow in Maracaibo.

Sources: IHT, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

Everyday I open up Google News, and I run my usual searches: Bayern Munich (just so I can get my cousin’s nagging of my back) and of course, Man Utd & Manchester United. I have to run both spellings just in case; we don’t want to miss anything big, like this stroke of genius from the rumor mill?!!However amongst the usual babble about Tevez, Torres and the above-mentioned story about our Viking Gudjohnsen I found an actual piece of professional journalism. Rare as they have become thanks to the likes TribalFootball, this piece actually made its way to the “What the Papers Say” section of ManUtd.com.

Fabio Quagliarella is the lad’s name, he is co-owned by Sampdoria and Udinese and has been tipped as the newest addition to Sir Alex Ferguson’s squad for next season. We’ll figure out how to enunciate his name later, for the moment, what we need to know is this:

First and foremost, Quagliarella, 23 years young, struck a pair of sublime goals from distance to give the Azzurri a 2-0 away win last week in a Euro 2008 qualifying win against Lithuania. He has made 35 league appearances for Sampdoria last season, scoring 13 goals.

One particularly memorable strike came in a game against Chievo at the end of May when he found the back of the net with an audacious hit from 40 yards out. Another came against Reggina, when he converted a textbook scissor kick from a corner, and still managed to land on his feet. It was an incredible demonstration of skill, power and athleticism, and one that forced some of Europe’s footballing giants sit up and take notice.

(Not the actual scissor kick from that match, but close enough…)

Second, last Monday Sampdoria general manager Beppe Marotta has been quoted saying:

“In the current market, I would compare him with two other players (Milan striker Alberto) Gilardino who was bought for 24 million euros and (Valencia’s Francesco) Tavano (who is valued at) 12 (…) Therefore the value (of Quagliarella) is 15 to 20 million euros.”

Third, just a few hours ago a story has popped up which has Quagliarella agent, Silvio Pagliari saying the following:

“One month ago Manchester United put in an offer of 10 million pounds (14.8 million euros) for Fabio (…) We feel Fabio is worth between 15 and 20 million euros, so if the English club’s offer still stands, it is highly probable he will go abroad.”

So basically Man Utd are being told to confirm the bid, this is obviously a “come and get me” signal from the player.

Apparently, back in March, it was Martin Ferguson who scouted the player at Sampdoria’s game against Palermo. And in this blog entry from Soccerfiesta dating back to April 8^th we have a quote from Beppe Marotta admitting an offer from Manchester United for the striker.

Now, I know I shouldn’t rave about how great this lad might be. I know he is inexperienced and unproven. But the boy’s a bit special you see. Not only does he find the back of the net but he makes sure won’t forget it. His fearless approach to the game reminds me of King Eric and his eye for the spectacular results in unforgettable strikes.

Although at 1.80m he is hardly the tall “fox in the box” goal poacher Man Utd fans have been craving for, he is a definite monster when shooting from outside the box and seems to want to a move to Old Trafford. Perhaps he has dreams of an all Italian striking force at United if he is to be coupled with Rossi. Still, he falls into the category of a Rooney-like player; but again so does Tevez, maybe Sir Alex has a formula in mind as to how he might accommodate such a combination. Let’s just wait and see how this one plays out…

Here is a compilation of his goals for those of you have been intrigued by this lad.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

“A squad that will be once again feared across Europe” is what Luca Toni and Franck Ribery signed up for next season. Those are believed to be Bayern general manager Uli Hoeness’s words to Toni.

With most of my favorite team’s (Man Utd) transfers done already I have decided to turn my attention and track the market activity of the only other team that has fans in our family.

FC Bayern have had their worst season in 10 years and with their quasi-moronic habit of letting players leave on free (and then trying to make up for it by asking ridiculous money for players like Hargreaves) they have found themselves almost in need of an entire new squad for next season.

In addition to Mehmet Scholl who is retiring and Owen Hargreaves who completed his much anticipated and craved transfer to Manchester United. Bayern also bade farewell to Hasan Salihamidzic, Claudio Pizarro and Ali Karimi. All three players will be leaving the Bavarians on free, the destination of the first two being Juventus and Chelsea respectively while that of Karimi is still to be determined (most likely being a Qatari club).

All of this meant the club had to go on its biggest spending spree in history. €11m for the world cup winning striker offering him a record shattering contract of €5.5m a year, Toni has promised Bayern to “repay them in goals”. As for Ribery, the transfer details have not been disclosed but the reports have then at an initial €26m in addition to another 4m when the Bavarians qualify for Europe, making it the most expensive acquisition in Bundesliga history.

While many Arsenal fans thought the Frenchman was Emirates bound because they had Henry and many Real Madrid fans though the same because of his relationship with Zidane, it appears that Bayern stalwart Willy Sagnol was able to convince his countryman that German was not so hard to learn. Ribery will take the number seven previously worn with distinction by Mehmet Scholl, with Toni set to wear the classic number nine last occupied by goalscoring legend Giovane Elber.

Ribery and Toni join confirmed new arrivals Marcell Jansen, the left back starlet of relegated Borussia Monchengladbach (transfer fee undisclosed), Jan Schlaudraff of relegated Alemannia Aachen (€1.2m), Hamit Altintop of Schalke(free) and Jose Ernesto Sosa of Estudientes (€6m). In addition it appears that 34 year old Brazilian midfielder Ze Roberto set for a second spell in Munich after spending a year with Santos.

Also, Miroslav Klose has stated that he wishes to play for Bayern in 2008, although it is uncertain if Bayern will agree with Werder Bremen on a price-tag for the world cup sensation. Still, Klose is definetly Allianz-Arena bound at the end of his contract next year. These have been the names and deals so far, and I don’t doubt that Ottmar Hitzfeild, Uli Hoeness, and Der Kaiser (Franz Beckenbauer) have more tricks up their sleeves.

This revamped squad has started to take shape; it indeed looks like a well oiled German machine ready to instill fear into the hearts of the weak and by weak I mean the opposition Bayern will face in the UEFA Cup. I have no doubt in my mind Bayern will sweep through the UEFA Cup and come back to the Champion’s League hungrier than ever.

From Soccerlens.com - Football News

“United are in a much better situation but we know if we take nine points from our last three games and United lose six points then we’ll be okay. It’s not easy to lose six points but anything is possible in football.”

Not easy to say the least, two out of Chelsea’s remaining three games are against Arsenal and Manchester United (Everton being their third and final game of the season).

With the Gunners game being played at Emirates Stadium coming away with three points will not be an easy task. Granted last time these to sides played, for the Carling Cup Final at the Millennium Stadium, Chelsea walked off with the trophy.

However, their last Premiership encounter at Stamford Bridge required “Michael Essien’s best goal of his Chelsea career on 84 minutes (to rescue) a point for Jose Mourinho’s side” (Quote from chelseafc.com Match Report).

Moreover, Wenger’s men have had a four game winning streak, while Mourinho’s are limping off their draw to Bolton.

Still, come match day we could be looking at two completely different sides, The Blues could be reinvigorated from a win over Liverpool in the Champion’s League Semi-Final and because one has to wonder when all the takeover talk will take its toll on the Gunners.

Next, Chelsea will have to take three points from the clutches of Man Utd. Now if you were to ask my opinion as a Man Utd Fan-Attic, I would say, “Dream On!!!” But since this is my first crack at whipping out a Soccerlens article, I keep a minimum of objectivity.

Till now, these sides have met only once this season. Man Utd dominated that first-half at Old Trafford and Chelsea dominated the second with Ricardo Carvalho equalizing (68^th minute) Saha’s goal (28^th minute).

This game will be a preview or a dressed rehearsal if you will, for the FA Cup Final and even possibly the Champions League final. There is so much at stake for both teams that I honestly find it very hard to see a clear victor. A Draw is, in my opinion, likely to be the most probable of situations.

So, if we consider that Chelsea’s odds at beating Arsenal are at 11 to 8 (Draw 9/4, Arsenal 13/8), which equate to a probability of 42.1% and that their odds of beating Man Utd is at 7 to 4 (Draw 2/1 and Man Utd 7/4) , which equates to a probability of 36.36%. Odds for their game against Everton have not been issued yet, but lets consider them to be equal to Man Utd’s game against Everton, that’s 8 to 11 which boils down to 57.89%.

(Odds from oddschecker.com , conversion were done by myself, if you care to second guess me on them check out Converting Fractional Odds to Probability)

So if we were to consider a simple statistical model Chelsea chances of winning all three games are: 42.1% x 36.36% x 57.86% = 8.85%. Chelsea has a 8.85% chance of winning all three games and walking away with nine points.

If we were to take into consideration the fact that Man Utd has to lose yet another game for Chelsea to come out on top that would lower the probability even more. But since were at it, let’s get cracking and find that final number.

Let’s say Manchester United loses against Man City (it’s more probable than West Ham). The Odds of that happening are at 9 to 2 (Draw 5/4 Man Utd 11/10), so that’s 18.18%, making Chelsea’s chances of finishing on top of league table 1.60%.

“Anything is possible in football“? Maybe, but the odds of that anything are 1.60%.

(P.S: For those of you who will be tempted to challenge my mathematics, don’t bother, I’m an Economics major, I do this for a living)

Update: Updated for corrections based on a discussion in the comments

From Soccerlens.com - Football News