Arsenal youngest, Manchester United oldest? It’s all relative…
Is it possible to be too old to win a title?
Sir Alex Ferguson certainly thinks so. According to him, Chelsea are too old to win a title. At least, that’s how the Guardian interpreted Sir Alex’s comments (and far be it for someone to suggest that a British newspaper somehow blew an innocuous quote completely out of proportion in order to stir up a controversy that doesn’t really exist).
If anything, all he said was that Chelsea’s key players had probably already peaked while many of his key players still had some potential for improvement (not sure if that makes it better or worse – I’m sure Ballack, Lampard, Drogba, and the others appreciated being told that they weren’t going to get any better). Still, for the purposes of this article, let’s look at the Big Four teams in the Premiership and compare the average ages of their respective starting XI’s.
You would think that Sir Alex’s claims would be ludicrous, especially in light of the fact that he has a 37 year-old goalkeeper, a 33 year-old captain coming off a career-threatening injury, and a vice-captain who just broke the club record for most appearances. A quick look at Manchester United’s projected Starting XI would seem to confirm that notion:
GK – Van der Sar – 37
D – Neville – 33
D – Ferdinand – 29
D – Vidic – 26
D – Evra – 27
M – Carrick – 26
M – Hargreaves – 27
M – Scholes – 33
M – Ronaldo – 23
F – Rooney – 22
F – Tevez – 24
Average age: 27.91
Of course, we’re assuming that Neville reclaims his starting place from Wes Brown (who’s 28), a safe assumption considering that Ferguson is on record saying that Neville will get every opportunity to win back his job. Then again, I’m sure Wes Brown didn’t sign that brand new contract so that he could go back to being Gary Neville’s backup. Either way, the situation bears watching. With Brown in the lineup, the average age decreases to 27.45.
We’re also assuming that Ronaldo stays at Man Utd for the upcoming season, and that situation seems to change depending on what day it is. Otherwise, they could be looking at a Nani/Giggs platoon to fill that wing. Plus, if they ever get Berbatov, then they’ll have to factor him into the equation (and at 27, he’s not exactly a neophyte). Ferguson might have been right in that his difference makers (i.e. Rooney, Ronaldo, Tevez, Vidic, Evra, and Carrick) certainly are young enough to grow and improve dramatically. Still, it’s not like he has a team full of spring chickens. Then again, that might be a good thing. After all, look what happened to Arsenal last year.
Let’s take a look at Chelsea’s projected lineup:
GK- Cech – 26
D – Bosingwa – 25
D – Terry – 27
D – Carvalho – 30
D – A. Cole – 27
M – Essien – 25
M – Lampard – 30
M – Ballack – 31
M – J. Cole – 26
M – Deco – 30
F – Drogba – 30
Average age: 27.91
It looks like Lampard is staying, at least for the next year, while the only way Kaka and Robinho will see the inside of Stamford Bridge next season will be if AC Milan or Real Madrid come for a visit. If Drogba ends up leaving before the season starts and Anelka has to start the season as the lone striker (I’d bet my life savings – and, granted, that’s not much these days – that Abramovich would go out and acquire someone better), then the average age dips slightly to 27.82.
That’s right. Chelsea’s projected starting lineup has the same average age as Man Utd. One big difference, however, is that there is much less deviation with regards to the respective ages of each player. No one is younger than 25 or older than 31. As such, Ferguson might have been right in saying that all of Chelsea’s key players have either reached their peak or are fast approaching it. Still, there is something to be said for having a balanced team. If so, then Chelsea definitely have it.
Let’s look at Arsenal:
GK – Almunia – 31
D – Sagna – 25
D – Toure – 27
D – Gallas – 30
D – Clichy – 22
M – Eboue – 25
M – Rosicky – 27
M – Diaby – 22
M – Fabregas – 21
F – Adebayor – 24
F – Van Persie – 24
Average age: 25.27
As expected, they have the youngest average age amongst the Big Four. In fact, the number may go down even more if Rosicky, as expected, sits out the first month of the season. If so, then we could see Nasri move into the lineup, and he’s only 21. Diaby is in a battle with Song and Denilson (both 20 years old) for the spot being vacated by Flamini, so if either of the latter two win the job, then the average age will go down even more.
No one really expects Arsenal to splurge the 18 million or so that it will take to pry Gareth Barry (27 years old) from Martin O’Neill’s cold, dead hands, but even if they do, it won’t raise their average that much. They’d still be youngest team out of the Big Four by a landslide. Now, if only Arsene Wenger could find someone who can lead these youngsters on the field….
Finally, let’s look at Liverpool:
GK – Reina – 25
D – Carragher – 30
D – Skrtel – 23
D – Hyypia – 34
D – Aurelio – 28
M – Mascherano – 24
M – Babel – 21
M – Alonso – 26
M – Gerrard – 28
F – Keane – 28
F – Torres – 24
Average age: 26.45
Like Man Utd, Liverpool has a mixture of young and old in their lineup. Obviously, Benitez loves to rotate his lineup, meaning that players like Kuyt (age 28), Lucas (21), Voronin (29), Pennant (25), Benayoun (28), and Arbeloa (25) will all get significant playing time. And, of course, there’s the never-ending Gareth Barry saga that would be the summer’s biggest Will-He-Or-Won’t-He story if it weren’t for a certain fellow over at Old Trafford. Substituting Barry for Alonso (who knows all about the waiting game as far as transfers go), would only raise the average age of the lineup slightly.
In any event, it certainly looks as if Manchester United has the oldest starting lineup amongst the Big Four in the Premiership. However, Ferguson is correct in saying that his key players are younger than Chelsea’s key players and, as such, it stands to reason that they still have their best years ahead of them.
Ferguson’s comment raises an interesting question. All teams are looking for balance. But what kind of balance is the best? Is it where everyone is about the same age and has the same level of experience (like Chelsea or Arsenal)? Or is it where you have seasoned veterans and young starlets working together and feeding off one another (like Liverpool and Manchester United)?
actually liverpool will most liekly be playing with a back four (if at all) of degen(25/26), carragher(30), agger(23?), dossena (24?),
this would bring are average down significantly, i very much doubt that hyypia will play many games this season he is the fourth choice centre back and by far the oldest in the team,
does this make as younger than arsenal?
You’re calculations for the average age of Liverpool are incorrect because Agger has always been ahead of Hyypia and is 10 years younger. Given that Liverpool’s support squad is getting younger as players from the winning reserves side become more involved, expect most Liverpool side’s fielded next season to be at least as young as Arsenal’s.
I think someone is forgetting about Brown (28), Anderson (19), Nani (21), Fletcher (25) Evans (20)..these are the guys who will be playing most games this season, scholes and nevelle will be used very sparingly. this is a very poor article. Look at the hearth of utd. Ferdinand (29), Vidic (27), Anderson (19), Hargraves (27), Carrick (26), Tevez (24), Rooney (22), Nani (21), Ronaldo (23) Park (26)Fletcher (25) Evans (20) this is the youngest and strongest squad in the premier league and can easily compensate for the 3 older players like Scholes, Neville and Giggs who are still good enough to get in most teams in the Prem league especially Scholes.
evans, park, fletcher will be playing most games this season? lol what a joke that is
by the way what is the hearth
riena (25)
degen (25)
carragher (30)
agger (23)
dossena (26)
macherano (24)
kuyt (27)
babel (21)
gerrard (28)
keane (28)
torres(24)
play the diamond formation with mscherano DM and gerrard AM!
oooo sum manc fans getting a little worked up. and cum on is fletcher even counted as a player?? his job is to hug who eva scores a goal and thats it. Youth = trophies for years to cum
AFC
Nice article, even though it was triggered by an ultimately pointless Guardian headline about players’ ages and their potential performance.
On the other hand, if you’re going to go down to 2 decimal places for the average age, surely you should be calculating it based on the players’ age in days, rather than years as integers?
oooo sum manc fans getting a little worked up. and cum on is fletcher even counted as a player?? his job is to hug who eva scores a goal and thats it. Youth = trophies for years to cum
get off the sms-ish you North Londoner.
Fletch is a Legend, our BIG, big game player.
Youth = Trophies for years to come : So when was the last time?
to #6:
don’t underestimate the power of a Fletcher-HUG
Who is the girl in the picture at the top of the story? Hot as hell! I am in love.
off-limits Greg, off-limits. Let’s talk about footy
MARTIN…….. read ur comment again, then realistically compare the ages of the arsenal an man u listed squads for the upcoming season………
now try an tell anyone wholl listen that man u have the youngest
I’m in agreement with Martin here. You will certainly find that Anderson and Nani will be taking over from Scholes and Giggs this season as will Foster from VDS. I also expect to see Evans getting some games and also Possebon and Welbeck are likely to get a few.
In any case, Ferguson was simply pointing out that the most influencial players at Man Utd over the coming seaon are likely to be Rooney, Ronaldo and Tevez (and possibly Nani and Anderson) who are all under 25 and improving. Chelsea’s most influencial players are probably Lampard, Drogba, Ballack, Essien, now joined by Deco. Does anyone expect them to be better this season than last? Or will that young Shevchenko guy get a few games off the bench?
Good article and I appreciate the research that went into it.
Firstly, Fergie was clearly speaking tongue in cheek and starting the seasons mind games rolling.
Secondly, any review of successful teams over the years will show that the age profile (except in the extremes) is meaningless. Milan won the CL 2 seasons ago with a very old (but very experienced) squad. Utd famously (for Alan Hanson anyway!) won the double in ‘94 with ‘kids’.
Personally I believe that a good mix of youth and experience is the best blend. Some young, some mid twenties, some thirties, but most of all a squad FULL of quality.
Now why does that make me think of Man Utd??????
Chelsea have more older players than MANCHESTER UNITED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obvious results from the article.
Worth dropping by for a butchers at the chesticles on the bird in the picture though!!!
chelsea r targettin the quad this season … but ask em 2 fuck off 1 they will not win anytin this season
TIME FOR LIVERPOOL 2 SHINE !
i really want lfc to buy david silva - last summer signing … that wud make em genuine contenders
i also feel arsenal will be tough to beat next season
anyway guyz
AUGUST 1
Arsenal VS Juventus
August 2
Arsenal vs Real Madrid
WHATS UR PICK ??
July 29, 2008rick
evans, park, fletcher will be playing most games this season? lol what a joke that is
by the way what is the hearth
……………………………………………………
Is your name Rick or Dick?
I also think Fergie was making reference to the whole squad as United have a lot of back up / up and coming playing within the squad. The team shown includes three central midfielders but United would actually have two and two wingers. With Van Der Sar, Giggs and Scholes expected to be eventually replaced by Foster, Nani and Anderson Uniteds age plumits. And they’re players that will yet improve greatly
MARTIN…….. read ur comment again, then realistically compare the ages of the arsenal an man u listed squads for the upcoming season………
now try an tell anyone wholl listen that man u have the youngest
……………………………………………………
The team that hammered Arsenal in the FA cup last season was younger than the Arsenal squad on the day.
The point of the article is to ridicule Man Utd, When the fact is Utd have a bigger and more experienced/better squad that doesn’t rely on players like Paul Scholes and Garry Neville who miss a lot in scholes case and all of the season in Neville’s case last year. Flecter (24)was limited to 16 games last season due to injury and still was man of the match against Liverpool and Arsenal. No other team in the premiership have does type of players that can come in and doesn’t weaken the team. Anderson was man of the match away to Arsenal and Liverpool where he out played two of the best midfield players in the world yet he couldn’t get a place in the cl final or the last game of the season…… The point is Liverpool Arsenal and chelsea to a certain extent have excellent 1 - 13 but Utd have it 1 - 18 and thats why they win titles the older players will play 20 to 30 games players like Anderson, nani, flecter,Park Evans will 10 - 15 games and make no difference to the result of the game.
Arsenal do have the youngest squad, but utds main team are young and at their peak whereas our players still need a bit of experience.
uniteds teams is well balanced with experience and young talent whereas we do not have the experience, expecially losing flamini/gilberto/lehmann and hleb
Wow. Looks like I opened the proverbial can of worms.
Anyway, I took the Man U. and Chelsea lineups from the Guardian. So if anyone takes issue with them, then take it up with them. Still, I think the lineups are valid. After all, Van der Sar might end up starting fewer games as Ferguson attempts to ease Foster into the lineup. But the bottom line is that, right now, he is the #1 guy at Old Trafford. Same with Scholes. If Anderson and/or Fletcher end up starting more matches this year, then so be it. Right now, though, Scholes seems to be penciled into that starting spot. I’m not sure if Fletcher can establish himself there, although I’m record saying that he should stay at the club.
Basically, if Ferguson needed to win a game, and he had everyone in his squad at his disposal, then that’s the lineup he would probably pick. Maybe he’d sub out Hargreaves and put in a natural wide-player, but that’s probably the lineup he would come up with. Obviously, he isn’t going to trot out these guys for every game. After all, he has a deep squad for a reason.
This is much ado about nothing. And you further cheapen your blog with the photo which one assumes is meant to depict jailbait.
Put Anderson(19), Nani(21) instead of Giggs and Scholes.
The girl in the picture looks scary young…
it has to do with the title and the main theme behind the article…that age is relative.
Off-topic guys
Agger will definatley be ahead of Hypia not to mention Skrtel. I also agree with the comment about Liverpool reserves. We have the best reserve team in the country and some of them will soon be playing a part in the first team.
Its obvious there isnt much difference between these teams in age but I think the team in the worst position is Arsenal. Wenger needs to stop selling players when they hit 28+ because he will always lack experience in his Squad. Although with a few tweaks in defence Arsenal could be the best team in England.
if its changed to Agger Liverpools average age is around 25.5
ok so what if chelsea has a statistically older squad, i suggest you do average of 20 most probable starting players and then find standard deviation. Most likely chelsea and liverpool will have the least standard diff while arsenal and man u will have the most.
The reason is simple, chelsea and liverpool by comparison are newer squads. Both were more or less created in mid 2000’s. Alot of chelsea’s players came semi-recently, they were bought to win trophies for as long as possible. Same goes for liverpool but because they had less spending money less drastic changes. Now arsenal and manU have had a long time under one coach and this allows them to have a more diversified team, this is because many of their players from late 90’s or early 2000’s have retired or moved clubs. They are just replacing those players now and coming back to true full strength, manU faster because they can spend more. Part of the reason chelsea won the 2 leagues they have by so many points because at that time manU and arsenal were going through points where they players were either too old or too young and just couldnt last the entire campaign. ManU has nearly hit their peak and arsenal will do so next season. Liverpool i think can mount an attack this season.
Martin….. you still didn’t really answer Arsene’s question you just went on about how your going to win everything, Arsene said if you look at the squad lists we are younger than Manu, and he’s correct, as your replacing 30+ year olds with 20 year olds i.e. Giggs for Nani or Scholes for Anderson… but were replacing Eboue 25 for Walcott 19, or Rosicky 27 for Nasri 21…..see how this adds up, can you do maths?
So can you now see, how we have a younger squad…. im not boasting im just telling the facts.
U obviously dont know the starting line up of Liverpool or Arsenal or Man utd.
It’s quite likely that Denilson will play where Diaby is listed. Diaby can’t defend as well as Denilson, so seems most likely.
Also Eboue at 25 will not be in ARsenal’s first 11 next year or I will actually top myself. We didn’t buy Nasri (who’s what 21?) to be behind Eboue in the pecking order. Walcott also might come above EBoue, and he’s 19.
I won’t bother doing the calculations, but I think you can see ARsenal will be younger than the figure listed, at least by a year or so I predict.
Ahmed Bilal, you must be gay if you don’t care or didn’t see.
@Greg - I have the benefit of having had this pic for a while and the fact that I run the site, so I’ll see this pic a lot.
so I care. I just don’t want to divert the discussion to the photo. If you really care, you’ll go here and enjoy yourself.
Ian’s comment at number 13 sums up what Fergie was trying to say pefectly. Unlike United who’s key players are still a little young and have room for improvement(we can say that Nani, Anderson, Ronaldo, Tevez, Ferdinand, Vidic) haven’t reached their peak yet, they still have 5years- a decade to improve. But looking at Deco, Lampard, Drogba, Ballack. Do you actually think these players still have SIGNIFICANT room for improvement compared to the other players i mentioned? Thats exactly what Fergie was trying to say.
hey li, r u nuts man?……Fergie dint really mean chelski were a bunch of old hags(this was twisted by sun and he has clarified it too) …….he meant that the room for development was less in players like Deco,lampard,drogba, ballack,malouda,..etc whereas man utd have players like rooney, anderson, ronaldo, nani and tevez who r world class performers and r still developing and have more room for it…..Fergie is too experienced to write off pure quality guys…..as for arsenal fanatics….u guys are a bunch of playmakers without a spine and an end product….accept the reality that u guys r not ready for a fight from the time u have lost ur captain marvel viera. u boast saying u play the best football which purists love….i accept u play eye catching football,but still u havent acquired the art of grafting…..quite simply because u dont have a leader like viera and u have a perfect scholar gone nutty professor who spends money on nasri and ramsey’s when u have a plethora of their kind….pls nutty professor abandon ur plans in poaching young talent from foreign clubs and sign a quality replacement for viera for u have won nothing since he has left…..(accept the fact gunners)
As for the scousers….i think u have the most complete team now…and ur squad can now truly cope up with rotation….but as the histroy shows all the scousers proclaim from early 90’s, “this is our year….” and i dont have to comment on the ending…..
Chelsea’s replacements are also older, which supports Ferguson’s comments. It may be more beneficial (to the sake of arguing) to field 16 rather than the usual 11. The season is long and no one runs the same 11 (except maybe Everton or Villa - but they remain 5-10).
As for Arsenal, they likely aren’t even done buying. And Yes, Nasri is a starter (former Ligue One player of the year).
One more thing, can the keeper be removed from this figure ? Seamen played until he was a senior citizen and he was still in top form then. A young keeper is not beneficial or an impact in any way legitimate.
I think Liverpool can win this title because they are not too old and also not too young…
Ahmad,
Maybe the jailbait was a poor choice to allow ? She is some man’s daughter, and he may have read this article… and he may want to find Greg and….
Well, good luck Greg.
“hey li, r u nuts man?” Depends on what you mean by nuts…
BTW, I never adopted what the Guardian said. In fact, I think you’ll see that I expressly disavowed it. If you read through the entire article, then you’ll get my drift.
As for Arsenal, I agree that Eboue shouldn’t be starting. I don’t think he should have started last year, either. I just think that, for now, he’ll hold the spot. Maybe if he continues to struggle, or if Nasri plays really well, then Wenger will make the change. For some reason, Wenger really seems to like Eboue, and I think he’ll give him every chance to succeed.
As for Liverpool, I’ll concede the point about Agger over Hyypia. With the way Benitez rotates his squad, it’s difficult to predict what his starting XI will be. I went with the experienced Hyypia in this case.
Well, I honestly do not think that the average age of the potential starting line up is as important as the average age of the entire squad (given that all players in a squad will be crucial in a team’s season). So, here are the avreages ages on the squad (first team squad with the players that will most likely make a few first team appearances in the coming season) and other statistical indicators.
Man Utd
Average age: 26.81
Standard deviation: 4.69
Range: 19-37
Mode: 27
Median: 27
Chelsea
Average age: 27.71
Standard deviation: 3.13
Range: 21-34
Mode: n/a (there are four players aged 26 and four players aged 30)
Median: 27.5
Arsenal
Average age: 23.1
Standard deviation: 3.63
Range: 17-31
Mode: n/a (there are three players aged 20 and three players aged 25)
Median: 23
Liverpool
Average age: 26.27
Standard deviation: 3.27
Range: 21-34
Mode: n/a (there are five players aged 25 and five players aged 28)
Median: 25.5
There you have it. Manchester United has by far the highest diversity in squad experience, while Chelsea is the most homogenous team in that aspect.
Arsenal and Liverpool have the youngest squads, although Arsenal has more extremes.
Interesting result from which we can derive that:
-experience is a very important factor in a team’s result. Manchester United have a squad that is barely younger than Chelsea’s and they finished first and second last season while the younger squads of Arsenal and Liverpool fell behind.
-the mixture of old and young is also a determining factor. Manchester United have the highest standard deviation* while Chelsea have the lowest. Arsenal also have a higher standard deviation than Liverpool which probably made up for their lack of experience last season to keep them ahead of Rafa benitez’ men.
* for those of you who have not studied statistics, standard deviation measures the average difference between the mean of a set of data and each variable in that set of data.
Here is its entry in Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation)
**all results are based on the current squads, accounting for the transfer which have been completed this summer so far
Andrei,
Did you make your calculations based on years or days ?
Unfortunatley years. To calculate it in days would have taken me days…
GK – Almunia – 31
D – Sagna – 25
D – Toure – 27
D – Gallas – 30
D – Clichy – 22
M – Nasri – 20
M – Vela – 20
M – Diaby – 22
M – Fabregas – 21
F – Van Persie – 24
F – Adebayor – 24
If rosicky gets injured then vela
why dont u just take out almunia and replace him with a 20yr old gk. “If he gets injured”
Andrei,
very nicely done
jay i think you made a mistake cause vela is a forward so it should be like this
GK-Almunia-31-S-fabianski-23
D-sagna-25-S-Eboue-25-S-hoyte-22
D-toure-27-S-senderos-23
D-gallas-30-S-djouru-2
D-clichy-22-S-traore-19
M-rosicky-27-s-Walcott-19
M-fabregas-21-s-denilson-20
M-ramsey-18-S-song-21
M-nasri-21-S-diaby-22
F-Van persie-24-S-eduardo-25
F-Adebayor-24-S-vela-18
All this talk of age is fine but with a team of young players you need to have experience and when this blend has been sculpted into the team that is utd then the rest of you can be as young as you like because at the end of the day you will still be the proverbial bridesmaids. Vini Vidi Vici. Utd have won in the past - they have won in the present and possibly (sorry probably) they will win in the future all made possible with the young team Man U have - No-one else.
Thanks Ahmed, I am still trying to find out why on earth I took that statistics class and this is the closest I have come to using those skills contructivley…
comment 48 : Djouru is 2? I know Wenger likes them young….
Krikey !!!! That may skew the math a little….
Ramsey is 17. Jack Wilshere is 16 and damn good.
Arsenal will be there in may with real hopes for the double.